But before there is glory, there is the group stage. In its current format, first utilized in France at the 1998 edition – France’s first triumph at the Copa Mundial – the world cup opens with its 32 participants sorted into 8 groups of 4. In each group, 2 survive, and 2, do not.
With the groups set – at a ceremony watched by 1.6 million– a comprehensive look at the 32 contestants is overdue. We will chart each national team’s history, their journey to Qatar, their strengths, weaknesses, and anything else that might help us determine who is destined for glory, and who is set to get grouped.
Key Factors
Performance denotes how a national team has recently performed. For a loose estimation of “how good they have been”, we’ll use two metrics, FIFA Rankings, and Elo Ratings.
FIFA Rankings rank teams based on results. Teams get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. These points are then multiplied or divided based on various factors including recency, the type of competition the game took place in, and how good the opposing team is. FIFA Rankings are, relative to Elo Ratings, less reactive. They account for less factors, weigh competition type less, and don’t penalize knockout losses. This means they approximate longer stretches of “performance” than…
Elo Ratings are largely the basis for the current formula used for FIFA Rankings. They are similar to FIFA Rankings but have a few key differences. They factor in goal-difference – the margin of victory – when taking or giving points, weigh competition type more, and penalize teams for knockout losses. This makes them more reactive, meaning they approximate shorter stretches of “performance”.
Talent denotes how good the individual players on a national team are. For a loose estimation of “how good is this team on paper”, we’ll use two metrics, Transfermarkt Valuations(TMV), and – courtesy of redditor u/bl4klotus – World Cup Depth Chart Scores(WCDCS).
Transfermarkt Valuations are crowd-sourced estimates of player value. Valuations are derived from discussion and consensus as opposed to a formula. While subjective, they are taken seriously by those in the professional business of soccer. We’ll use the average TMV of each national team’s World Cup roster. As all players on a world cup roster influence the average, this ranking will skew towards depth.
World Cup Depth Chart Scores are averages based on my World Cup Positional Depth Chart, which guesses the most talented possible assortment of players that could start for each national team and then sorts everyone from that theoretical lineup into one of 5 tiers. As this average is only influenced by the best 11, it will skew towards stars.
Various other points will be considered, but these measures provide a baseline we can work off. Here’s how all 32 teams compare via these metrics:
Performance of World Cup Teams Talent of World Cup Teams
No
FIFA
Rank
Elo
Rank
No
TMV
Rank
WCDCS
Rank
1
Brazil
1
Brazil
1
1
England
1
Brazil
T-1
2
Belgium
2
Argentina
2
2
Brazil
2
Spain
T-1
3
Argentina
3
Spain
3
3
France
3
France
3
4
France
4
Netherlands
4
4
Portugal
4
Germany
4
5
England
5
Belgium
5
5
Germany
5
Portugal
5
6
Spain
7
France
6
6
Spain
6
England
6
7
Netherlands
8
Portugal
7
7
Argentina
7
Belgium
7
8
Portugal
9
Denmark
9
8
Netherlands
8
Argentina
8
9
Denmark
10
Germany
10
9
Belgium
9
Netherlands
9
10
Germany
11
Uruguay
11
10
Uruguay
10
Croatia
10
11
Croatia
12
Switzerland
12
11
Croatia
11
Switzerland
11
12
Mexico
13
Croatia
13
12
Serbia
12
Uruguay
12
13
Uruguay
14
England
14
13
Denmark
13
Denmark
13
14
Switzerland
15
Serbia
16
14
Senegal
14
Senegal
14
15
United States
16
Ecuador
18
15
Switzerland
15
United States
15
16
Senegal
18
Iran
21
16
United States
16
Serbia
16
17
Wales
19
Mexico
22
17
Poland
17
Poland
17
18
Iran
20
Poland
23
18
Morocco
18
Mexico
18
19
Serbia
21
United States
T-24
19
Ghana
19
Japan
19
20
Morocco
22
Japan
T-24
20
Canada
20
Morocco
20
21
Japan
24
Wales
26
21
Mexico
21
South Korea
T-21
22
Poland
26
South Korea
28
22
South Korea
22
Ghana
T-21
23
South Korea
28
Canada
29
23
Wales
23
Wales
T-23
24
Tunisia
30
Morocco
32
24
Cameroon
24
Ecuador
T-23
25
Costa Rica
31
Costa Rica
35
25
Japan
25
Canada
T-25
26
Australia
38
Australia
39
26
Tunisia
26
Cameroon
T-25
27
Canada
41
Tunisia
T-43
27
Iran
27
Costa Rica
27
28
Cameroon
43
Senegal
T-43
28
Ecuador
28
Saudi Arabia
28
29
Ecuador
44
Qatar
49
29
Australia
29
Iran
29
30
Qatar
50
Saudi Arabia
54
30
Saudi Arabia
30
Tunisia
30
31
Saudi Arabia
51
Cameroon
61
31
Costa Rica
31
Australia
31
32
Ghana
61
Ghana
74
32
Qatar
32
Qatar
32
Let’s begin.
Previews for each of the 8 groups will be released over the next week. We’ll start with Group A, and end with Group H.