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2025 Summer Transfer Window Review

Published

7 months ago

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Last year, I wrote a stock-up/stock-down article covering ten Americans who either made a move to Europe or to the U.S.  We are closing in on New Year’s and about 6 months until the World Cup (June 11th, 2026), giving us enough data to know if these transfers have been beneficial not just for the players’ club careers, but to make it onto the USMNT for the World Cup.  As American soccer players, this season is the most important season of their international career.  The players are making one last argument for them to be at a USMNT camp and be part of the team when the United States of America co-hosts the FIFA World Cup.  So far, a lot of the European transfers have not gone so well, compared to the domestic transfers.  

*All information is up to date as of December 1st, 2025.

Yunus Musah to Atalanta (loan)- Stocks Down


When Massimiliano Allegri took over AC Milan, he cleaned house.  Twenty-four players were permanently transferred out of the club or sent on loan (some for positive reasons and others, not so much).  Yunus Musah happened to be one of those 24 players.  AC Milan sent Musah on loan to fellow Serie A club, Atalanta, with an option to buy that is worth $28 million.  As things stand, it does not look like Atalanta will trigger their buy option at the end of the season.  Musah has only one start and has appeared in 9 matches (a total of 203 minutes) while being available for a total of 16 matches since joining the Nerazzurri.  When it comes to goal contributions, Musah has only one assist coming from the Champions League match against Club Brugge.  When it comes to passing, Musah’s accuracy has not been bad (83.5%), but he is lacking in chances created with only 3. 

He has never been known for scoring goals, but his total shots this half of the season are as low as 0.6.  As for his defensive work, it has been average.  He has only 2 interceptions, has lacked successful tackles (25% success rate at 1/4), and he has committed a penalty.  The only positive is his ball recovery rate, which is at 16.  Statistically, the only areas where he sees positive results have been in his dribbling (60% completion) and duels won (59.5%).  From Atalanta’s standpoint, if he is offering little in the final third and in your defensive half, then what is the purpose of starting him?  As for the USMNT, his poor form at his club has not gone unnoticed by Mauricio Pochettino.  The last time Musah received a call-up to the USMNT was for the Gold Cup, which he turned down and that could be a contributing factor to why he has not been called up since.  Others in the midfield, and at right wing, have been able to stake their claim onto the team.  At this point, we will not be seeing Yunus Musah make it onto the 26-man team this coming summer.

Johnny Cardoso to Atlético Madrid- Stock Down


One of the biggest transfers this past window for an American, and one of the closest followed transfers in Spain, was Johnny Cardoso’s $35 million (according to Goal) move to Atlético Madrid on a 5-year deal.  Johnny was coming off a solid season with Real Betis that showed a promising career in Europe.  He collected 4 goals and one assist as a defensive midfielder.  In just two months of being at Real Betis, Johnny won the LaLiga U23 Player of the Month for February 2024.  Fast forward to today, due to his lack of opportunities with Atleti and his USMNT form, his hopes of being at the World Cup are fading. 

During pre-season, he made his way onto the starting XI for Atleti starting in the first three matches of the season.  Sadly, he picked up an ankle injury that led him to miss 9 matches.  Since returning on September 13th, 2025, Johnny went 5 matches without receiving a single minute.  Diego Simeone has opted to go with veteran player, Koke, to start alongside Pablo Barrios and Conor Gallagher as the substitution.  He finally got his chance when Simeone named him on the Starting XI in their UCL match against Inter Milan on November 26th, 2025.  For someone who had not played a single minute since August, Johnny had a good game in the 59 minutes he received.  When we look at the stats from those four matches, there were positives.  His pass accuracy sits at 77% with 62% total duels won.  Johnny also completed 67% of his dribbles, had 4 interceptions, 2.65 tackles per game, 9 clearances, and 9 balls recovered.  Obviously, stats alone will not keep you on the pitch and the performances of the other midfielders as of late have made it difficult for Johnny. 

Atleti fans on social media are happy with his performances, believe he should be a starter, and believe he is an important player to the team.  Time is running out for him at the international level though with the final USMNT friendly camp coming up in March.  He must make an argument for himself to get into that camp to get one last shot at the World Cup.  If Johnny builds on his performance from the Inter Milan match, he could see himself in that final camp.

Paxten Aaronson to Colorado Rapids- Club: Stock Down

This will be seen as controversial by many MLS fans, but Paxten receives a stock down mostly because the move has not improved his chances of making it onto the USMNT and the impression that his career has regressed.  Eintracht Frankfurt’s sporting director, Timmo Hardung, said, “With a view to the 2026 World Cup, which is taking place in his home country, among others, he made the request to take his next step at the Colorado Rapids.”  During the Gold Cup, we saw 16 MLS players take part in the campaign.  Paxten only received 58 minutes in total, when you include the friendly against Switzerland.  It was the only camp he was called up to in 2025.  We saw the likes of Diego Luna, Brian Gutierrez, Jack McGlynn, Luca de la Torre, and Sebastian Berhalter were either getting called up ahead of him and/or receiving more minutes than he was at the Gold Cup. 

It set a precedent that no matter how well you perform in a top seven league, like the Eredivisie, the performance of those in the MLS will outweigh yours.  In Paxten’s case, he had 8 goals and 4 assists in 30 starts for Utrecht, helping them finish 5th in the top Dutch league.  His performance at Utrecht was enough for him to be part of Eintracht Frankfurt’s 2025/2026 campaign, who is competing in the UCL, part as stated by Hardung, Paxten submitted a transfer request to join Colorado Rapids.  Yes, Paxten is getting regular minutes at Colorado instead of being a bench player, but he is coming back to MLS after just 2 ½ years in Europe.  Despite receiving 571 minutes, Paxten only scored one goal and got 0 assists.  It was not enough for Poch to give Paxten another chance with the USMNT, and the transfer had been all for nothing.

Malik Tillman to Bayer Leverkusen- Stock Up

Three seasons ago (the 2022/2023 season), Malik Tillman left the Bundesliga after agreeing to a loan deal to Rangers F.C. from Bayern München.  For the following season, Tillman went on loan to PSV Eindhoven, which became a permanent deal.  This season, he is back in the Bundesliga, but this time with Bayer Leverkusen.  In his debut match for Die Werkself, he scored a goal at the 35-minute mark.  It has been a slow start for Tillman in the G/A department with only 3 goals in 12 matches, but there are still many positives to this move that show he can make it in the Bundesliga.  When available, Tillman started in 10 matches, 3 of which have been UCL matches, and a total of 815 minutes played.  Right now, Tillman has 1.50 xG in the Bundesliga with 187 goals per minute. 

He also has a goal conversion of 25% to add on top of that.  Outside of scoring, his pass accuracy is at 85%, but he has 0 assists and only 6 chances created.  Defensively, Tillman has intercepted the ball 8 times, recovered it 33 times, 3 blocked shots, and has a success rate of 79.9% (18/24) tackles.  Additionally, he has won 50% of his duels.  A major reason why Tillman gets a stock up is because of one reason, he is playing consistently at a high level.  Diego Luna is in the MLS and towards the end struggled with his production (it also did not help when Tillman looked like the better 10 in the Gold Cup). 

Paxten would not be a starter for Eintracht Frankfurt if he had stayed and he took a step backwards.  Gio Reyna is in the Bundesliga as well and is one of our most talented players, but he only has 189 minutes for Mönchengladbach.  Despite Tillman’s continued issue of performing consistently, the fact he is getting regular minutes at a top five league club and finally performing for the USMNT, has locked him in as the #1 CAM for the U.S. at the World Cup.

Damion Downs to Southampton- Stock Down


Damion Downs scored 2 goals in 179 minutes just shy of turning 20 years old.  He followed this up with 10 goals and 3 assists in his first full season in a professional league when FC Köln was relegated to the 2. Bundesliga.  FC Köln won the league and with-it promotion back into the Bundesliga.  Downs contribution to the campaign got him a move to English Championship club, Southampton.  Anyone who understands English football and Southampton’s striker depth knew this was a risky move.  Prior to Downs joining, the club had Cameron Archer, Adam Armstrong, and Ross Stewart.  So far, the transfer is going poorly and that is disappointing for a promising player.  In 395 minutes, Downs has only one assist and gone 2 matches as an unused substitute.  To make matters worse, he has only been on the matchday team sheet 16 times out of the possible 21 matches (Downs missed one match due to illness). 

This move was not only important for Downs’ domestic career, but also his international career.  During the 2024 Paris Olympics, Downs tried out for the U.S. Olympic team, but Marko Mitrović cut Downs from the team just before the Games.  This led him to join Germany’s U20 to take part in their U20 Elite League campaign.  It took Pochettino to give him an opportunity at the 2025 Gold Cup for Downs to rejoin the U.S.  The goal for Downs would be to take that third striker spot with the USMNT this coming World Cup.  Looking at his club form, that will not happen. 

If you are looking for any positives, there are two.  One, Downs is only 21 years old, so there is still plenty of time to recover his domestic career.  Second, Downs is not the only striker at Southampton that has been struggling.  Ross Stewart and Cameron Archer only have 2 goals, and one assist each this season.  There is still the second half of the season to recover to possibly slide into the 2026 World Cup roster.  If not, there is still the 2030 World Cup, which he will be 26 years old.

Patrick Agyemang to Derby County- Stock Down


When the Gold Cup campaign began, Patrick Agyemang started all but one match, when you included the two friendly matches.  Prior to the Gold Cup, Agyemang was part of ‘Camp Cupcake’ and the Nations League finals in March.  In the three camps, he scored five goals.  Many fans and pundits were calling him to be a lock for the USMNT and that appeared to be certain after the Gold Cup, but that is where it ended for him.  For the September camp, Folarin Balogun, Josh Sargent, and Damion Downs were selected over Agyemang.  Hope returned when he was called in for the October camp, but he did not receive a single minute in the two matches. 

Then came the November camp where he did not get the call from Pochettino.  What could have happened that led him to fall out of favor with Pochettino?  There are two reasons: Balogun and Pepi have returned from injury, and Agyemang has been in poor form at Derby County.  In 11 starts and 953 minutes played, Agyemang has only 3 goals and 3 assists.  In comparison, fellow American and Championship player, Haji Wright has 9 goals and 2 assists in 14 starts.  To make matters worse, Agyemang has 318 goals per minute, and his goal conversion is a meager 11%.  His passing has not been the greatest sitting at 69% accuracy, but Agyemang is just short of creating a chance per game at 0.9 (13 chances created).  Besides having a poor goal conversion rate, his ball retention is also poor.  Agyemang has lost 66% of his duels and losses possession 11.2 per game. 

Before his move to Derby County, Agyemang scored 8 goals in the current MLS season and finished last season with 10 goals.  The move has not only been a stock down for him domestically, but also internationally.  Agyemang needs to find his form quickly or he will not be part of the USMNT again this World Cup cycle.

Benjamin Cremaschi to Parma (loan)- Stock Down


Benjamin Cremaschi was someone whose chances of making it to the World Cup were slim, but he took part in ‘Camp Cupcake’ and performed well in the U20 World Cup.  Prior to the U20 World Cup, Cremaschi had yet to make his debut since joining Parma on loan at the end of the summer transfer window.  After winning the golden boot at the U20 World Cup, Cremaschi got his debut, but he has only clocked in 14 minutes in 2 matches.  On seven different occasions, Cremaschi has been an unused substitution by Carlos Cuesta.  The loan deal includes a buy-option and so far, it does not look like Parma will exercise that option.  Cremaschi needs to find his way on to the pitch to convince Parma to make the move permanent. 

The move at first gave some hope that he could get back into the USMNT picture and his showing at the U20 World Cup reinforced that.  Since he has not even reached 25 minutes in Serie A with barely any data and footage to go on, his chances at the World Cup are even less now.  Cremaschi would have to try again during the 2030 World Cup cycle.

Timothy Weah to Marseille (loan)- Stock Up


Even though Tim Weah set a personal record for goal contribution with 10 goals and assists, he only started in 24 matches.  Now, he is on loan where his dad spent a spell at Marseille.  The loan has worked out for Weah so far, starting in 12 of the 15 matches he has appeared in.  Currently, Weah has 2 goals and 2 assists with a goal conversion of 23%.  His passing accuracy is at 87% with 15 chances created.  Weah’s defense has been decent with 59.1% tackles completed, 35 recoveries, and 15 clearances.  The one stat that has been negative for him is his duels at 50%, which is not too bad.  The move back to Ligue 1 has been beneficial to not just his playing time, but more fitting to his playing style. 

Weah is still in the USMNT picture and there should be no doubt that he will be at the World Cup.  The question is, at what position?  Weah has been playing all along the right side for Marseille, mostly at RB.  Now that the USMNT is using a 3-4-2-1, Weah is fighting with Sergiño Dest for that starting RWB spot.  If Pochettino does not plan to have Weah at RWB, does he move to CAM, where the depth is deep, or to striker?  It is likely that Weah would be placed at RWB, but I do not think it is a matter of being #1 or #2.  Depending on who our opponent in the World Cup is would decide if Poch starts Weah or Dest.

 Kristoffer Lund to 1. FC Köln (loan)- Stock Up

A surprise transfer over the summer came from Kris Lund when he joined FC Köln in the Bundesliga on loan.  Lund started off strong when he joined Palermo in Serie B back in 2023/2024, but last season he struggled with his form and getting starts (he only started 24 of the 35 matches he appeared in).  That is why when the report broke out that newly promoted Bundesliga club, FC Köln, signed him on loan with a buy-option, it took U.S. fans by surprise.  It has been up and down for Lund since joining Köln, but the club is midtable and will likely avoid relegation.  Lund has also been starting consistently for Die Geißböcke with 10 starts out of 14 matches.  Due to him getting consistent starts for a midtable Bundesliga club, many USMNT fans have suggested that Pochettino should give Lund another chance. 

That has not happened, either because there is something about his club performance that has not impressed Poch to call him up over John Tolkin and Max Arfsten, or Lund’s performance back in the October 2024 camp that left a bad impression.  Looking at his stats, Lund has not really done anything offensively and that could be a reason why he has not gotten another look by Poch.  His xG is at a low of .20 while his xA sits at .41.  Lund did get his first Bundesliga assist recently in Köln’s match against Werder Bremen.  Lund’s passing has not been too bad with an accuracy of 72.5%, but his chances created are only at 6.  Defensively, he is doing better where he has 10 interceptions, 95.8% (9/12) completed tackles, 31 recoveries, and 36 clearances.  A major negative in his records is that he has committed two penalties. 

The loan has been good for his domestic career and caught the attention of USMNT fans again.  If we are giving a midtable 2. Bundesliga player call-ups, then a midtable Bundesliga player should get another opportunity.  It is doubtful that Lund will be at the March camp and at the World Cup.  The LWB position will likely be covered by Antonee Robinson and Arfsten, one who has been reliable for us since the 2022 cycle and the other who has a 6 G/A this year.  He is 23 years old, so there is always the 2030 World Cup.  Lund simply needs to end the season on a positive note, make his move to Köln permanent, and then perform consistently throughout the next cycle.

Honorable Mention

George Campbell to West Brom Albion- Stock Up


Another surprise transfer was when George Campbell left Montréal for English Championship side, West Brom.  So far, it has not gone too badly for him.  While healthy, he has started in 13 matches with a total of 1,259 minutes.  Campbell has collected 2 clean sheets with 9 interceptions, 81.94% (21/30) successful tackles, 47 recoveries, 73 clearances, and 8 blocked shots.  The only major negative defensive stat Campbell has is committing one error that led to a shot.  He has been successful with his passes by completing 89% of them, but Campbell’s duels have been average, winning 50% of all duels. 

Like Lund, Campbell recently got his first English Championship assist in West Brom’s clash against Swansea off the bench.  Due to the USMNT’s current lack of quality CBs, there were fans suggesting that Pochettino call up Campbell to give him a shot.  The thing is though, Campbell has mostly played at RB, a position that is covered by Sergiño Dest, Alex Freeman, and Joe Scally.  On the upside, Poch has moved to a back 3, which could give Campbell access to the USMNT.  It is doubtful that he will get a chance at the March camp, but he is only 24 years old, and he is now in Europe where he can continue to develop.  The 2030 World Cup is still a reality and that is why he gets a stock up.

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Ranking the Most Impactful USMNT Players in World Cup History

Published

4 weeks ago

on

June 13, 2026

By

Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

The U.S. Men’s National Team has played 37 World Cup matches across ten tournaments, producing no shortage of memorable moments and standout performances. Below is my ranking of USMNT players based on their World Cup impact, some from a single tournament, others across multiple appearances.

I’ve taken a few liberties with ties, as in several cases no single player clearly stood above the rest; instead, the moment itself, and the collective effort, defined the performance.

Honorable Mention:

Marcelo Balboa – Appearing in three consecutive World Cups (1990, 1994, and 1998), he anchored the USMNT defense throughout an important era of growth for the program. He also came close to one of the tournament’s most memorable moments with a spectacular bicycle kick attempt off a corner against Colombia that nearly found the net.

Michael Bradley – Across three World Cups (2006, 2010, and 2014), Michael Bradley was a driving force in the USMNT midfield, known for his engine, composure, and leadership. He delivered a crucial game-tying goal against Slovenia in 2010 and later provided the assist on Julian Green’s memorable strike in 2014, consistently stepping up in key moments on the world stage.

Cobi Jones – While Cobi Jones remains the all-time leader in USMNT caps and earned 11 World Cup appearances across three consecutive tournaments, he did not register any goal contribution in any of those World Cups.

Eddie Pope – Across three World Cups (1998, 2002, and 2006), Eddie Pope was a cornerstone of the USMNT backline, known for his composure, positioning, and aerial dominance. He played a vital role in the team’s run to the quarterfinals in 2002, anchoring a disciplined defense and providing veteran leadership against some of the world’s top attacking talent.

Matt Turner – If Turner earns the starting role and delivers a standout performance during a deep USMNT run, coming up with game-changing saves, he could break into the top 10 while surpassing the current records for wins and shutouts.

#10 – 1930 USMNT Pioneers-TIED

Jimmy Douglas
World Cups: 1 (1930)
Matches: 3
Wins: 2
Shutouts: 2

Bert Patenaude
World Cups: 1 (1930)
Matches: 3
Goals: 4
Assists: 2

With limited historical data and in the context of the very first FIFA World Cup, I’m combining two true pioneers of the USMNT. Jimmy Douglas remains the only USMNT goalkeeper to record two wins and two shutouts in World Cup play, all achieved at the inaugural 1930 tournament, where the United States secured a third-place finish.

On the attacking side, Bert Patenaude scored four goals in that same tournament, including a hat trick in the U.S. second and final group-stage match. His performances were instrumental in helping guide the United States to its third-place finish in the first-ever FIFA World Cup.

#9 – 1950 USMNT Heros-TIED

Frank Borghi
World Cups: 1 (1950)
Matches: 3
Wins: 1
Shutouts: 1

Joe Gaetjens
World Cups: 1 (1950)
Matches: 3
Goals: 1
Assists: 0

Another historic meeting, shaped by similar circumstances to the first group, but what is known for certain is that the USMNT pulled off a stunning victory over one of the top sides at the 1950 World Cup. Frank Borghi delivered a remarkable performance in goal throughout the match, standing firm under relentless pressure.

The breakthrough came in the 38th minute when Joe Gaetjens scored a crucial goal to give the USMNT the lead. From there, the match shifted entirely onto the shoulders of the U.S. defense and goalkeeping, who held strong to secure a famous 1–0 victory over England one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history.

Earnie Stewart
World Cups: 3 (1994, 1998, 2002)
Matches: 11
Goals: 1
Assists: 0

#8 – 1994 USMNT Trailblazers-TIED

Eric Wynalda
World Cups: 3 (1990, 1994, 1998)
Matches: 8
Goals: 1
Assists: 0

Two of the USMNT’s early trailblazers, Eric Wynalda and Earnie Stewart, delivered defining World Cup moments on home soil at the 1994 FIFA World Cup. Both played pivotal roles in energizing a new generation of American soccer fans.

The USMNT’s first goal of that tournament came via one of the most iconic set pieces in World Cup history, earning a crucial draw in the opener. That momentum carried forward when Stewart netted the game-winner against heavily favored Colombia, securing the United States’ first World Cup victory since 1950.

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#7 – Claudio Reyna
World Cups: 4 (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)
Matches: 10
Goals: 0
Assists: 0

Named to four World Cup squads and appearing in three, Claudio Reyna was a cornerstone of the USMNT for more than a decade. While he didn’t record a goal contribution on the World Cup stage, his influence was undeniable, dictating tempo, providing composure in midfield, and serving as captain in both the 2002 and 2006 tournaments.

#6 – DaMarcus Beasley
World Cups: 4 (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014)
Matches: 11
Goals: 0
Assists: 1

DaMarcus Beasley is the only USMNT player to appear in four World Cups (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014), a testament to his remarkable longevity, versatility, and consistent impact across multiple generations.

He emerged on the global stage at the 2002 World Cup as an explosive, attack-minded winger, using his pace and direct play to stretch defenses and play a key role in the United States’ run to the quarterfinals. As his career progressed, Beasley reinvented himself, most notably transitioning to left back by the 2014 World Cup, where his experience, defensive discipline, and composure helped stabilize the back line against elite international competition.

#5 – Brad Friedel
World Cups: 3 (1994, 1998, 2002)
Matches: 6
Wins: 2
Shutouts: 1

Brad Friedel’s World Cup legacy is defined by consistency, composure, and elite shot-stopping across multiple tournaments. He served as the primary starter at the 2002 World Cup, made a start at the 1998 World Cup, and was the backup to Tony Meola in 1994, providing a steady, reliable presence in goal during a pivotal era for the USMNT.

His standout performances came in 2002, highlighted by his penalty-saving heroics. Friedel recorded two penalty saves in the tournament (excluding shootouts), tying the World Cup record for most in a single edition. His ability to deliver in high-pressure moments played a key role in the United States’ run to the quarterfinals and solidified his place among the program’s all-time great goalkeepers.

#4 – Brian McBride
World Cups: 3 (1998, 2002, 2006)
Matches: 10
Goals: 3
Assists: 1

Brian McBride’s World Cup legacy is defined by big goals, relentless work rate, and a fearless, physical style that helped set the tone for the USMNT on the global stage. He scored the team’s only goal at the 1998 World Cup against Iran, rising to meet a corner kick with authority. 

In 2002, he played a pivotal role in the opening-match upset of Portugal, constantly pressuring the defense and helping spark the historic win, before delivering again with a goal against Mexico in the Round of 16 to send the US. to the quarterfinals.

His grit and determination were on full display in his final World Cup in 2006, when he famously continued playing after suffering a broken nose and a bloodied face, an enduring symbol of his toughness, leadership, and commitment to the team.

#3 – Tim Howard
World Cups: 3 (2006, 2010, 2014)
Matches: 8
Wins: 2
Shutouts: 1

A starter in back-to-back World Cups, Tim Howard delivered on the biggest stage when it mattered most. From his record-setting 16-save performance against Belgium at the 2014 World Cup, widely regarded as one of the greatest goalkeeping displays in World Cup history, to his consistent ability to keep the United States competitive against elite opposition, he repeatedly elevated his game under pressure.

His shot-stopping brilliance, commanding presence, and calm leadership in high-intensity moments define a legacy that places him among the most influential goalkeepers the USMNT has ever had on the World Cup stage.

#2 – Clint Dempsey
World Cups: 3 (2006, 2010, 2014)
Matches: 10
Goals: 4
Assists: 0

From his goal just 29 seconds into the match against Ghana at the 2014 World Cup, the fastest in USMNT World Cup history, to his composed finish against England in 2010 World Cup that helped secure a crucial draw, to becoming the first American to score in three different World Cups, Clint Dempsey consistently delivered on the game’s biggest stage.

Those moments, combined with his toughness, edge, and ability to show up in key situations, cement his place as one of the most impactful USMNT players in World Cup history.

#1 – Landon Donovan
World Cups: 3 (2002, 2006, 2010)
Matches: 12
Goals: 5
Assists: 3

From his dramatic stoppage-time winner against Algeria that sent the USMNT into the knockout stage, to his goal in the “Dos a Cero” victory over Mexico that helped propel the team to the quarterfinals, to his deflected strike off Jorge Costa that contributed to him being named Best Young Player of the 2002 World Cup, Landon Donovan consistently delivered on the biggest stage.

Taken together, those moments make a strong case that he’s been the most impactful USMNT player in World Cup history, and it only adds to the “what if” of how much more he might have achieved had he been part of the 2014 squad.

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The Return of Third-Place Qualifiers at the FIFA World Cup

Published

4 weeks ago

on

June 13, 2026

By

Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

The expansion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup from 32 to 48 teams will dramatically change the race to reach the knockout stage. Under FIFA’s new format, the top eight third-place teams will advance to the Round of 32 alongside the top two teams from each group.

For the past seven World Cups, only the top two teams in each group have advanced to the knockout stage. The last time third-place teams moved on was at the 1994 World Cup, where the USMNT benefited from the format before losing to eventual champions Brazil in the Round of 16.

So how many points will teams need to advance in 2026?

History suggests that five points should safely secure a place in the knockout stage. Across the past seven World Cups, every team with five or more points advanced out of the group stage.

Three points, however, has almost never been enough. The only team to advance with just three points during that span was Chile at the 1998 World Cup.

Four points has produced mixed results. At the 2022 World Cup, three groups featured two teams finishing on four points, but only one team from each of those situations advanced. Similar scenarios also occurred at the 2010 and 2002 World Cups.

Overall, 46 teams have finished the group stage with four points since 1994, but only 20 advanced to the knockout stage. The USMNT accounts for three of those successful four-point campaigns, advancing in 1994, 2002, and 2014.

1986 World Cup


Semi-Finals Match between Belgium and Argentina

The 1986 World Cup was the first tournament with 24 teams to allow four third-place group stage teams to advance to the knockout round. While the 1982 World Cup also featured 24 teams, it used a different format with a second round made up of four groups of three teams, with only the group winners advancing to the semi-finals.

One of the most notable aspects of the 1986 World Cup was that two teams advanced to the knockout stage with just two points, something that seems highly unlikely under the format for the 2026 World Cup.

Among the third-place qualifiers, Belgium made the deepest run, reaching the semi-finals before losing to eventual champions Argentina.

1990 World Cup

WCUP WORLD CUP SOCCER AREGENTINA GERMANY OLD RIVALS


World Cup Final Argentina against Germany

At the 1990 World Cup, every third-place team that advanced to the knockout stage finished with three points. The biggest surprise was Argentina, the highest-ranked third-place team, making an incredible run all the way to the World Cup Final before falling 1-0 to Germany.

1994 World Cup

The 1994 World Cup was arguably the most fascinating tournament when it came to the impact of third-place teams advancing to the knockout stage and likely played a major role in FIFA’s decision to expand the tournament to 32 teams in 1998.

Here’s a look at the top five FIFA World Cup group stage tiebreakers, which will almost certainly come into play this summer, especially when it comes to ranking the third-place teams.

  1. Overall Goal Difference: The greatest goal difference in all group matches.
  2. Overall Goals Scored: The greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
  3. Head-to-Head Points: The greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.
  4. Head-to-Head Goal Difference: Superior goal difference in the group matches between the teams concerned.
  5. Head-to-Head Goals Scored: The greatest number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned.

Both Group D and Group F saw three teams finish with six points, something that has not happened at the FIFA World Cup since. That created dramatic tiebreaker scenarios that ultimately determined where all six teams finished in their groups. Of those six teams, only two reached the quarterfinals, with Bulgaria making the deepest run by reaching the semi-finals.

Group E may have been the most fascinating group of the 1994 World Cup. Mexico, Ireland, Italy, and Norway all finished with four points and an identical goal differential of zero. Norway was eliminated after scoring just one goal, the fewest in the group.

Italy, meanwhile, advanced as a third-place team and went all the way to the World Cup Final before losing to Brazil in a penalty shootout, an incredible run considering how close they came to being eliminated in the group stage.

Will the 2026 World Cup Deliver Another Chaotic Group Stage?

With the World Cup expanding to 48 teams, the traditional “group of death” may not carry the same weight at the 2026 tournament. Still, that doesn’t mean the group stage will lack drama. Fans will be hoping for the kind of chaotic and unpredictable scenarios that made the 1994 World Cup so memorable, where final group matches carried massive stakes and teams were fighting for survival until the final whistle. 

From an entertainment perspective, more meaningful matches late in the group stage would be a huge boost for the tournament, but only time will tell if the expanded format can truly deliver that same level of tension and excitement.

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USMNT

The USMNT’s World Cup Legacy: Highs, Lows, and Defining Moments

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1 month ago

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June 3, 2026

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on Xhttps://x.com/uskeeper/ and us_keeper on Instagram)

The USMNT’s World Cup story stretches back nearly a century to the inaugural tournament in 1930. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will mark the United States’ 12th appearance on soccer’s biggest stage.

Over that time, the Americans have played 37 matches, earning 9 wins, 8 draws, and 20 losses, while scoring 40 goals and conceding 66. The U.S. has advanced to the knockout stage in seven of those tournaments.

Five different USMNT goalkeepers have recorded clean sheets at the World Cup, Matt Turner and Frank Borghi with two each, and Tim Howard, Brad Friedel, and Jimmy Douglas with one apiece.

The USMNT’s top World Cup scorers, Clint Dempsey, Landon Donovan, Brian McBride, and Bert Patenaude, all netted multiple goals in a single tournament, cementing their places in U.S. soccer history.

1930 – Uruguay

The inaugural World Cup in Uruguay saw the USMNT surprise the world by reaching the semifinals before falling 6–1 to Argentina. The U.S. dominated the group stage, defeating Belgium and Paraguay 3–0, with Bert Patenaude making history as the first player ever to record a hat trick at a World Cup. The Americans ultimately finished third, still their best result on the world stage to this day.

1934 – Italy

The USMNT’s 1934 World Cup appearance would be a brief one. Just days before the tournament began, the Americans secured qualification by defeating rivals Mexico 4–2 in Rome. Drawn straight into a knockout format, the U.S. faced host nation Italy in their opening match, falling 7–1. Aldo Donelli scored the team’s only goal, following up his remarkable four-goal performance from the qualifier.

1950 – Brazil

The USMNT pulled off arguably the greatest upset in World Cup history, and certainly their biggest win to date, by defeating England 1–0, thanks to Joe Gaetjens’ famous goal. Despite that historic triumph, the Americans fell 3–1 to Spain in their opener and 5–2 to Chile in their final group match, ending their tournament at the group stage.

1990 – Italy

After a forty-year absence, the USMNT returned to the World Cup with a young, hungry, and largely untested squad. Despite a rough start, suffering a 5–1 loss to Czechoslovakia, the Americans rebounded with a hard-fought 1–0 victory over host and eventual third-place finisher Italy before narrowly falling 2–1 to Austria. The invaluable experience gained at this tournament would help lay the foundation for the team’s performance at the 1994 World Cup.

1994 – United States

After several attempts to host a World Cup, the United States was finally awarded the 1994 tournament. The USMNT faced a very tough group but showed determination in all three matches. They opened with a 1–1 draw against Switzerland, with Eric Wynalda scoring a brilliant set-piece goal, still considered one of the best in World Cup history. In their second match, the Americans secured a 2–1 victory over a strong Colombian side, marking their first World Cup win since 1950. A narrow 1–0 loss to Romania in the final group match didn’t stop the U.S. from advancing to the Round of 16, where they were eliminated 1-0 by eventual champions Brazil. The 1994 World Cup had a lasting impact, helping to inspire and shape soccer culture in the United States.

1998 – France

It was an up-and-down cycle for the USMNT, but their fourth-place finish at the 1995 Copa América had fans optimistic about the team’s potential heading into 1998. However, the shocking omission of longtime captain John Harkes, who had worn the armband 30 times, raised serious questions. Meanwhile, trailblazers from earlier cycles struggled to make an impact: Alexi Lalas didn’t play a single minute, Marcelo Balboa saw just eight minutes of action, and Eric Wynalda featured in only two matches for a total of 51 minutes. The Americans went on to lose all three group-stage games, finishing last among the 32 teams.

2002 – Korea / Japan

After a hard-fought qualifying campaign, the USMNT made a memorable run at the 2002 World Cup, advancing to the quarterfinals after a historic 2–0 win over regional rivals Mexico. The Americans put in a strong performance against Germany but were denied a potential equalizer when a clear handball went uncalled, ending their dream run with a narrow defeat. Landon Donovan’s breakout performance earned him the tournament’s Best Young Player award.

2006 – Germany 

The USMNT entered the 2006 World Cup brimming with confidence, dreaming of another deep run. But drawn into a brutal Group of Death, those hopes quickly unraveled. A 3–0 loss to the Czech Republic stunned the team, though a fierce 1–1 draw with Italy briefly reignited belief. Then came heartbreak, a controversial penalty on Oguchi Onyewu doomed the US to a 2–1 defeat to Ghana and a shocking early exit.

2010 – South Africa

Riding the momentum of their 2009 Confederations Cup runner-up finish, the USMNT entered the 2010 World Cup with real belief and growing hype. Every match in South Africa was a test of grit and heart. The opener against England ended 1–1, with Clint Dempsey’s late first-half strike shocking the favorites. In their second match, the Americans stormed back from two goals down to draw 2–2, keeping their hopes alive. Then came one of the most iconic moments in U.S. soccer history, Landon Donovan’s stoppage-time winner against Algeria, sealing a dramatic 1–0 victory and a place in the knockout stage. But the dream ended in heartbreak, as Ghana once again eliminated the U.S. in extra time, 2–1.

2014 – Brazil

The mood heading into the 2014 World Cup was cautious after Jurgen Klinsmann’s shocking decision to leave Landon Donovan, the team’s all-time leader in goals and assists, off the roster. The USMNT opened against familiar nemesis Ghana, who had eliminated them in the previous two tournaments. This time, redemption arrived when substitute John Brooks headed home a late winner to seal a thrilling 2–1 victory. In their second match against powerhouse Portugal, the Americans came within seconds of back-to-back wins before a last-gasp equalizer from Silvestre Varela snatched away the dream. A 1–0 loss to Germany in the final group game proved enough to advance on goal difference. In the Round of 16, the U.S. faced Belgium’s golden generation, pushing the match into extra time behind Tim Howard’s record-breaking 16 saves, but ultimately fell 2–1 in a valiant defeat that earned global respect.

2018 – Russia

An aging and uninspired USMNT failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, marking one of the darkest moments in American soccer history. Bruce Arena later suggested that, had the U.S. made it, the roster would have looked much younger and more dynamic. Still, it’s hard to imagine that group advancing past the group stage, unless teenage sensation Christian Pulisic had delivered a breakout performance on par with Landon Donovan’s heroics in 2002.

2022 – Qatar

A new generation of USMNT players brought back the energy and passion missing in recent cycles. After a turbulent qualifying journey, the Americans opened the World Cup with a 1–1 draw against Wales, Tim Weah’s first-half goal canceled out by Gareth Bale’s late penalty. A gritty 0–0 result against England kept hopes alive before Christian Pulisic’s heroic goal against Iran sent them to the knockouts. Out of gas in the Round of 16, the U.S. fell 3–1 to a superior Netherlands side.

2026 – United States / Mexico / Canada

One thing is certain; the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be unlike anything the world has ever seen. It’s destined to break records, captivate audiences, and redefine what soccer means in America. But the story still to be written is that of the USMNT. Can they rise to the moment, ignite a nation, and make a historic run on home soil, proving once and for all that soccer in the United States has arrived and is here to stay?

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