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World Cup Positional Depth Chart

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Introduction

Welcome to my World Cup Positional Depth Chart, a tier list I’ve worked on for 2 months that sorts the best players for all 32 teams into various tiers based on a rough approximation of how good the “best” players for a nation are. 

 

I’ve sorted the best players from every NT’s player pool into 6 positional groups(or PG’s): Centerbacks, Midfielders, Wingers/Second Attackers, Fullbacks/Wingbacks, Strikers, and Goalkeepers.

 

Players are tiered based on the average “goodness” of their countries’ best players at a specific PG. This means that a Tier 1 level midfielder can be sorted into a lower tier if his national team’s other first choice mids aren’t as good.

 

 Each National team has 11 players sorted into tiers. The distribution of these players for each PG is determined by the formation each National Team typically uses. For example, if a team typically uses two midfielders, that team’s two best midfielders will be sorted, collectively, into a tier. If a team typically uses three center backs, then their three best center backs will be ranked collectively. In cases where a National Team is using various formations interchangeably, I’ll choose one that allows for more talent to see the field. In cases where there’s a coaching change, lineups after the coaching change will be prioritized as reference.

 

As a bonus, I have ranked players from the United States Men’s National Team who aren’t necessarily “first-choice”

 

What This List is not

This is not a measure of how effectively players for different national teams mesh with each other. This is also not an assessment of potential; “Talent” or “goodness” here is simply how good a player currently is. This also isn’t definitive, it’s meant to be a conversation starter; disagreement is encouraged.

Criteria

For this project, a player’s “goodness” is determined by their hypothetical impact on winning in various situations. To estimate how good each player is I’ve considered the following criterion:    


  • Current Value
  1. Team Performance (domestic and international)
  2. Strength of Competition (league quality is approximated based on various metrics including, but not limited to, national team representation, Gfl rankings, Transfermarkt valuations, average wage, ect.)
  3. Minutes Played (adjusting for physical availability)
  4. Impact (Does a player’s presence correlate with improved team performance? Overperformance of expectations? Stronger defensive performance?)
  5. Market perception (who’s tried to buy a player, team’s valuations, ect, ect.)

     

  1. Historic Value (Class over Form)
  1. Team Performance 
  2. Strength of Competition
  3. Impact
  4. Minutes Played
  5. Accolades
  6. Recency
  7. Age/Health

 

  1.   Data
  1. Eye Test/Film-Tracking
  2. Granular Metrics (g/a, chances created, post-shot xg, ect.)
  3. Holistic Metrics (G+, IMPECT, ect)
  4. Underlying Metrics (xG, xA, xT, ect.)

      

  1. Clutchness
  1. Performance in big games (club or country)
  2. Performance against better competition (club or country)

     

  1. Team Context
  1. Stylistic Fit
  2. Distribution of “goodness” (Ex: Dortmund are disproportionately weak defensively while Crystal Palace are disproportionately strong defensively)
  3. Versatility (How has a player’s value performance/value translated in various situations/roles)

       

With that out of the way…

World Cup Positional Depth Chart

Goalkeepers

Tier 1

Courtois, Allison or Ederson, De Gea, Neuer, Navas

Tier 2

Lloris, Musso or Rulli, Pickford, Onana, Muslera, Smhiechel, Sommer, Bonou, Patricio, Szczęsny, Mendy

Tier 3

Eliji Kawashinma,  Beiranvand, Borjan, Rajković, Livaković, Krul, Ryan,  Sad Al Sheeb

(Both Turner and Horvath go here)

Tier 4

Ochoa, Hennesey, Kim Seung-gyu

(Sean Johnson, Stefan Frei, Gaga Slonina, Brad Stuver, and Josh Cohen go here)

Tier 5

Attah, Galindez, Al-Owas, Mouez Hassen

(Zack Steffen goes here)

Notes

-> Keylor Navas and Jordan Pickford both get a “clutch” boost from disproportionately strong national team performances in WCQ and the Euros respectively.

 

-> Navas also gets a boost from “historic value”having arguably peaked as the best keeper on the planet. Going by recent club play Navas is not a “Tier 1” keeper, but the combination of maybe the most impressive carry-job from anyone in this cycle’s world cup qualifiers and a very impressive track record (for club and country) affords him some leeway.

 

-> Despite the relative weakness of the “Qatar Stars League”, Qatari keeper Saad Al Sheeb rides a decade of international success, a half-decade of domestic dominance, and a solid set of individual accolades (for both club and country) into Tier 3. Leagues are not monoliths. Between a 3rd place finish at the Club World Cup, an AFC Champions league win, and 3 league titles in the last four years, Al Saad has established themselves as a formidable force in Asia.  At the heart of this success was Al Sheeb who has emerged as one of the continent’s most accomplished players.

Strikers

Tier 1:

Lewandowski, Benzema, Kane, Messi

Tier 2:

Ronaldo, Neymar, Lukaku/Origi, Werner/Havertz, David/Larin, Vlahovic, Depay, Suarez/Nunez

Tier 3:

Raul Jiminez, Poulsen, Bale, Nesyri, De Jong, Choupo-Mouting/Aboubakar, Dia, Kramaric, Azmoun/Taremi 

(Pefok goes here)

Tier 4:
Asano, Ui-Jo, Khazri, Gyan, Embolo, Akim Afif

(Jesus Ferreira, Sargent, Wright, and Vasquez go here)

Tier 5:

Duke, Estrada, Al-Sheri, Ugalde

(Pepi, Hoppe, and Zardes go here with everyone else)

Notes

-> Ronaldo registers higher here than one might expect based on his recent form thanks to what he’s accomplished in previous seasons. With the Portuguese attacker reportedly pushing for a move in the off-season, I’m considering CR7’s production last season more relevant to assessing him than his goal-less start to this one. Rating Ronaldo is tricky as his granular production and impact signals don’t always line up; on one hand Ronaldo contributed to many goals(0.77 g/a per 90 in the league) for a disappointing United last season. On the other, United became disappointing after they signed him. I think fit is a large factor here (Ragnick is the father of Geggenpressing and Ronaldo, now in his 30’s, isn’t a forward you should be asking to running at defenders), but between United underperforming, his limitations (age-induced) in other facets of the game, and a goal-less start to 22-23, it’s hard to justify placing him at the top. 

 

-> One might be tempted to bump Messi off Tier 1 due to diminished goal-scoring, a move to a significantly weaker league, and the myriad benefits that come when you play on a team that is much better than any of your (domestic) competition. On the other hand, Messi was one of the best creators in Ligue 1 last year(Top 5 in chances created, PPA, xA, assists, and progressive passes), scored at a high rate against elite European competition(5 goals in 7 games), and played a key role for Argentina in a Copa America win and an undefeated qualifying campaign against the most difficult qualification schedule in the world. Additionally, Messi significantly underperformed his xG last season(may just be a cold-streak) and his scoring has seemingly returned(to some extent) for 2022-23. All that considered, I still have Messi in the top tier of forwards.

 

-> American forward Pefok is tricky to assess for a number of reasons. For one, he’s disproportionately weak at non-scoring aspects at the game. For another his sample size against elite competition is incredibly small. Pefok has 7 g/a over 12 games in the last 2 seasons against teams in the top 4 leagues. Making this more impressive is that most of those goals and games came on a plucky Swiss underdog against teams good enough to qualify for European competitions. While very impressive on the surface, the exceedingly small sample size, and Pefok’s weaknesses in other aspects(significant enough that he’s been left out of several US camps entirely) cast some doubt on the reigning Swiss Super League golden boot winner. That said,  Pefok was signed by and is currently starting for a Bundesliga team that finished 5th last year and has started the current campaign tied on points with Bayern. While Union are likely to regress, they’ve done enough with Pefok as a starter to solidify Pefok as a Tier 3 attacker.

 

-> Welsh Forward Gareth Bale and Mexican Forward Raul Jiminez stay in Tier 3 largely due to what they’ve done previously. Raul Jiminez was Wolves most valuable player when they were pushing for Europe in 2019-20. Bale earns leeway thanks to highs achieved with maybe the greatest club team ever(Bale played a significant role in Madrid’s remarkable Champions League three-peat) and two massive performances against Austria and Ukraine in one-off wcq playoffs to send Wales to their first world cup in 64 years.

 

-> Costa Rican forward Manfred Ugalde refused call-ups during WCQ saying he won’t play for “Los Ticos” as long as Luis Fernando Suarez remains coach. Nonetheless, since Manfred is the most promising Costa Rican attacker since Joel Campbell, is getting regular minutes for one of the best teams in the eredivisie, and his national team is bereft of decent alternatives, for the sake of this depth chart, Manfred Ugalde will represent the Ticos.

 

-> Having yet to earn a start, Canadian forward Cyle Larin isn’t having the best of starts at Club Brugge. Form, however, is not class and Cyle Larin’s recent track-record includes leading all players in wcq in goals, scoring the second most international goals in 2021, and leading the front-line for the most prolific offense in Super Lig history. With all that in mind, I’m giving Larin some benefit of the doubt.

Wingers/Second Attackers:

 

Tier 1:

Viniscus/Ralphina, Mbappe/Coman, Sterling/Sancho, Silva/Jota, Sane/Muisala, KDB

 

Tier 2:

Alvares/Correa, Pino/Olmo, Alphonzo Davies/Buchanan, Mane/Sarr, Wijnaldum/Klassen, Tadic

(Pulisic and Aaronson go here)

Tier 3:

Corona/Lozano, Son/Hwang, Perisic/Vlasic, Vargas/Shaqiri, Ito/Takumi, Zlenski/Syzmanski, Ayew/Paintsil, Ziyech/Amallah 

Tier 4:

Olsen/Damsgaard, Rossi/Pellistri, Gholizadeh/Jahanbakhsh, James/Morrell, Ekambi/Hongla, Muwallad/Al-Dawasari, Leal/Campbell, Valencia/Plata

(Weah and Tilman go here with Tilman being interchangeable with Djordje Mihailovic or Paul Arriola)

Tier 5:

Haydos/Hatem, Mabil/Boyle, Msakini/Sliti

(Arriola and Morris go here with everyone else)

Notes

-> Canada is an example of how looking at the average “goodness” of a PG instead of how good the best player from a PG can lead to different results. Tajon Buchanan is a good player on a good team but I don’t see him as a peer of players like Sancho, one of Europe’s most prolific chance creators at 20 with Dortmund, or Jota, a first-choice starter for one of the most dominant club sides in history. Thus, Canada drop to Tier 2, even with maybe the best left-back on the planet in Davies.

 

-> While Davies usually plays as a left-back with Bayern, Canada usually plays him as an out and out attacker. Additionally, listing Davies as an attacker allows room for Canada’s other fullbacks on the field. Remember, this ranking prioritizes talent over fit. 

 

-> Ghanian winger Joseph Plantsil has significantly upped his minutes for a Genk team that looks to be better in 2022-23 than it was in 2021-22. As a result my evaluation of Plantsil has improved lifting Ghana’s wingers from Tier 4 to Tier 3. Form may not be class, but it’s still something.

 

-> Serbia and Belgium mostly play with three center backs instead of two. The trade-off is they’re left with one second attacker instead of two wingers. For Belgium it’s creative maestro Kevin de Bruyne(KDB). For Serbia its savvy swiss army knife Dusan Tadic. PG classification doesn’t necessarily align with the specific function a player serves for their national team. Again, this ranking prioritizes talent over fit.

 

Fullbacks/Wingbacks

 

Tier 1:

Alexander-Arnold/Walker, Hernandez/Pavard, Azpilacueta/Alba, Danilo/Milatoa, Cancelo/Mendez, Kimmich/Gosens

Tier 2:

Tagliafico/Molina, Kostic/Zivkovic, Araujo/Oliveira, Sarr/Toure, Hakimi/Mazraoui, Thorgan Hazard/Meunier

(Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson go here)

Tier 3:

Sosa/Juranovic, Larsen/Maehle, Arteaga/Sanchez, Gamboa/Matarrita, Preciado/Estupinan, Widmer/Rodriguez, Bereszyński/Cash, Wass/Maehl, Al Breik/Al Shahrani

(Joe Scally and Sam Vines go here with Vines being interchangeable with Yedlin or Henry Wingo)

Tier 4:

Mensah/Odoi, Tolo/Oyongo, Maaloul/Drager, Adekugbe/Johnston, Nagatomo/Yamane

(Deandre Yedlin and Henry Wingo go here with either being interchangeable with Reggie Cannon, Shaq Moore, John Tolkien, Kevin Paredes, and DeJuan Jones)

Tier 5:

Moharrami/Amiri, Ahmed/Ro-Ro, Yong-Lee/Kwin-Moon-Han, Atkinson/Behich, Robert/Williams

(Shaq Moore and George Bello go here with everyone else)

Notes

-> English right back Trent Alexander-Arnold(TAA) hasn’t been a first-choice starter for Gareth Southgate’s England. TAA has been a first-choice starter for a Liverpool side who’s current iteration has few historical peers. Trent has been Liverpool’s primary chance creator and a critical opponent for their attack. Trent has arguably been the best creator in England, leading the league in expected assists, chances created, and progressive passes; finishing second in assists and passes towards the 18(PPA), and finishing 8th in expected threat(xT). Considering that Trent is also a solid ball carrier and a decent(if not spectacular) defender, you’d be hard-pressed to argue TAA isn’t one of the best players around. While he may not fit into Southgate’s plans, TAA is, for my money, one of the best players in the world and therefore an easy choice for Tier 1.

 

-> Despite the relative weakness of the Saudi Professional League, Saudi right back Mohammed Al Breik, like many of his countrymen, rides the tide that is Al Hilal SC. Dubbed the “The Asian Galacticos”, Al Hilal hold a record 8 AFC Champions league titles(2 from the last 4 years), a record 18 Saudi Professional League titles(5 from the last 6), is ranked #1 in Asia by most ranking sites, and was voted as the “Best Asian Club of the 20th century” by IFFHS. Put simply, Al Hilal is the crown prince of Asian football, and Al Breik, a regular fixture since 2015, has shared in its glory. With two AFC Champions League wins, 5 Saudi Professional League wins, 2 top 4 finishes at the Club World Cup, a combined 13 major trophies in 9 years as a pro, and a spot in the IFFHS “AFC Team of the Decade”, Al Breik is a giant in Asian football. Saudi left back Yasser Al-Shahrani didn’t get a spot in the “AFC Team of the Decade” like Al Breik, but has won the same silverware as a fixture in Al Hilal’s lineup and has won nearly twice as many caps for his country. Together, they represent “The Green Falcons” at Tier 3.

 

-> While they only employ one player on this list, Egyptian powerhouse Al Ahly represents an even higher tide than Al Hilal. Besides winning a record 10 CAF Champions leagues(2 of last 3), 42 domestic league titles(13 of the last 15), and just about everything that can be won in African soccer(usually more times than anyone else),  “The Red Giant” have been quite successful outside of Africa, running the the table on Afro-Asian competitions and earning three Top 3 finishes at the Club World Cup(including its last 2 iterations). Notably, in the last CWC, they thumped the “Asian Galacticos” 4-0 to clinch bronze. The year before, they took third via a penalty win over Copa Libertadores champion Palmeiras. With Egypt’s national team missing out on Qatar, Al Ahly has one representative for 2022: Tunsian left back Ali Malooul. A mainstay for “The Red Giant ” since 2016, Ali Malooul has been named to the CAF team of the year three times and has been involved in the most successful era for arguably the most successful club team outside of UEFA or CONMEBOL. The same cannot be said for Tunisian right back Mohamed Drager who was loaned to the nearly relegated FC Luzern after making one matchday squad for championship side Nottingham Forest and 2 appearances for Nottingham Forest’s u-21 team(Mohamed is 26). Thus, despite Ali Malooul’s accomplishments, Tusnia’s wide backs slot into tier 4.

 

-> Moroccan right back Noussair Mazaroui finds himself in the unfortunate position of his country’s best player, Achraf Haikimi, playing the same position on the same side of the field. Thus, he’s usually left out of the lineup while natural left back Adam Masina plays on the other side. However, as far as quality goes, becoming a first choice starter for Ajax, reaching the champions league knockouts, and getting minutes for Bayern while being a fixture in the matchday squad are all solid indicators. As this project prioritizes quality over fit, Mazaroui gets to line-up for “The Atlas Lions” here, even if he won’t do it in Qatar.

 

Midfielders

Tier 1:

Kante/Pogba/Nkunku, Rodri/Koke/Gavi, Gundogan/Kimmich/Goretska, Casemiro/Fabinho/Fred, Paul/Peredes/Rodriguez

 

Tier 2:

Moutinho/Fernandes/Palhinha, Bellingham/Henderson/Phillips, Bentancur/Valverde, Wijnandum/De Jong/Van de Beek, Modric/Brozovic/Pasali, Gueye/Mendy/Kouyate, Eden Hazard/Witsel, Hojberg/Eriksen

(Mckennie, Adams, and Reyna go here)

Tier 3:

Herrera/Alvarez/Guardado, Freuler/Shaqiri/Zakaria, Savic/Lukic/Gudelj, Lee Jae-Sung/Jeong Woo-yeong/Hwang In-beom, Partey/Baba/Kudus
(Musah can go here)

Tier 4 

Eustaquio/Hutchinson, Kamada/Endo/Morita, Amrabat/Barkok, Moder/Bielik/Linetty, Romdhane/Laidouni/Chaalali, Caicedo/Franco/Gruezo, Kanno/Al-Najei/Al-Faraj, Ramsey/Allen, Mooy/Hrustic/Irvine

(Yunus Musah, Kellyn Acosta, and Luca de La Torre go here with Busio, Roldan, and Duane Holmes being interchangeable with all three)

Tier 5

Nourollahi/Ezatolahi, Oum Gouet/Onana, Borges/Tejeda

(Eryk Williamson, Alan Sonora, and Paxton Pomykal go here with everyone else)

Notes

-> Belgium, Uruguay, Cameroon, and Iran generally use an extra forward at the expense of a third midfielder. Canada has made substantial use of both two striker and one striker set-ups, but to keep the quartet of David, Davies, Larin, and Buchanan on the field. i’m choosing a two striker set-up at the expense of a third mid.

 

-> Denmark has 10 players on teams set to play in the 22-23 UEFA Champions league. Of those 10, 4 are first-choice starters and of those starters, 2 play for a club in the “big 4” leagues. One of these 2 is Tottenham midfielder Pierre-Emile Højbjerg. Unlike many of his countrymen plying their trade at higher levels, Hojbjerg hasn’t struggled for minutes, playing literally every minute for a Tottenham side that has started 2022-2023 undefeated. Additionally, Christian Eriksen has performed well since brushing with death at the Euros. Upon his arrival in 21-22, Brentford experienced an immediate uptick in form, going 7-3-1(W-L-T) with Eriksen on the field(they had a record of 5-15-6 without him). His heroics at West London earned him a move to the red part of Manchester where Eriksen has played 98% of available minutes for Manchester United. Combined, the improvement in play/team form for Hojberg and the successful return of Eriksen as a professional player elevates Denmark’s midfield from Tier 3 to Tier 2.

 

-> Morocco, Costa Rica, Wales, and Denmark lose a third midfielder in exchange for an extra center back. While Costa Rica has made substantial use of both two center back and three center back set-ups(alternating between an extra striker or an extra defender), they tended to use three center backs when facing more talented opposition. Since Costa Rica is less talented than their three group stage opponents, I’ve decided to go with the extra defender.

 

-> Wales’s World Cup squad is likely to feature the most lower division players, including Swansea City midfielder Joe Allen. His partner-in-crime is former Arsenal player Aaron Ramsey who’s presently struggling for starts at Nice; currently winless in Ligue 1. Wales are currently the second highest ranked team with a Tier 4 midfield per Elo(22), and the highest ranked team with a Tier 4 midfield per Fifa(19). Strategy can minimize weaknesses; by focusing on direct attacks and dropping their lines under pressure, Wales are able to shift the game towards their Tier 3 attacker and their Tier 3 defenders. Consequently, Wales have been able to make do with a relatively weak midfield corps.



Centerbacks

Tier 1:

Marquinhos/Silva, Verane/Kimpembe, Laporte/Torres, Diaz/Pereia, VVD/De Ligt, Rudiger/Sule

Tier 2:

Romero/Otamendi, Stones/Maguire, Christensen/Andersen/Kjaer, Koulibaly/Diallo

Tier 3:

Akanji/Schar, Alderweireld/Jan Vertonghen/Boyota, Gimenez/Godin, Lovren/Gvardiol, Saiss/Aguerd/Mmaee, Pavlović/Veljković/Milenković, Hincapie/Torres, Djiku/Amartey, Ben Davies/Ampadu/Rodon

(Richards, Ream and Brooks go here)

Tier 4:

Moreno/Araujo, Yoshida/Itakura, Glik/Bednarek, Ngadeu-Ngadjui/Castelletto, Al-Amri/Al-Bulaihi

(Walker Zimmerman and Erick Palmer Brown go here with either being interchangeable with Cameron Carter Vickers, James Sands, Miles Robinson, and Matt Mizaga)

Tier 5:

Kanaanizadegan/Khalilzadeh, Min-jae/Kyung-won, Talbi/Ghandri, Miller/Vitoria, Calvo/Watson/Vargas, Wright/Rowles

(Aaron Long goes here with everyone else)

Notes

-> It might be a surprise for some that John Brooks, who seems to have fallen out of favor with USMNT Coach Gregg Berhalter, is placed a tier ahead of various, recently capped, American center backs. However, this list prioritizes “goodness” over fit(or player-coach relationships), and between multiple seasons of strong play in the Bundesliga, being signed by by a reigning UCL Quarterfinalist, and an arguable “best player on the team” performance during the 2021 Nations League, I’m comfortable putting Brook’s roster snubs down to factors besides how good he is at soccer. 

 

-> The going has been rough for Ecuadorian center back Piero Hincapie and Bayer Leverkusen; losing all but one of their first 5 games with Piero suspended for game 6. Form, however, is not class. Piero was a first choice starter for “The Company’s Eleven” as they made a surprise top 3 finish in the bundesliga last season. The going has been good for fellow Ecuadorian Felix Torres who’s Santos Laguna is currently top 4 in the standings for the Apetura. Together they slot into Tier 3 giving Ecuador 4 starters in roughly average territory. The other 7 have been slotted into tier 4 or 5 which is remarkable considering “La Tri”’s recent competitive performance: Ecuador were 3rd throughout most of CONMEBOL qualifying, only slipping to 4th when they were guaranteed a World Cup spot with games to spare, notched multiple results vs Brazil and Argentina, and are ranked 18th in elo which places them among 15th among teams referenced in this list. A team can be better than the sum of their parts and Ecuador have arguably gotten more out of their players than anyone else.

 

-> Significantly younger American center back Chris Richards also finds himself in a pickle, with 1 start for Crystal Palace through the beginning of 2022-23. While not the best of looks, context makes this more palatable. Crystal Palace are disproportionately good at the position of center back. While limited elsewhere, their center backs are elite by Premier League standards. Chris Richards locked in a starting spot with Hoffenheim last season as they pushed for Champions League qualification, has a statistically strong profile over multiple years in the Bundesliga, and was deemed valuable enough to Bayern that they set out a minimum fee of 20 million when Chris Richards insisted on a move. Ultimately Richards was too good for Bayern to let him go cheaply, but not good enough(yet) to be more to Bayern, one of the best teams on the planet, than depth. All considered, Richards is probably good at soccer. If things go well(say Richards becomes a starter at Crystal Palace and Brooks kills it with Benfica), 2022-23 might push the Yanks to Tier 2. If things go badly(say Richards stops getting playing time and Brooks is demonstrably out of his depth), they could drop to Tier 4. For now, with the World Cup fast approaching, they’ll have to settle for being middle-of-the-pack.

 

-> The going has also been rough for Senegalese center backs Kalidou Koulibaly and Abdou Diallo. The former has seen his team(Chelsea) sputter out of the gates while the latter has yet to see a single minute of action. Nonetheless, form isn’t class, and both centerbacks got significant minutes last season for two of the best teams on the planet. Even with 22-23 starting sub-optimally, it’s hard to put Senegal’s duo lower than Tier 2. This leaves all of Senegal’s starters, save for Tier 3 striker Boulaye Dia, at Tier 2 with certain individuals, like Mane, being worthy of Tier 1. With 1 player in average territory and the rest ranging from good to world-class, Senegal’s recent competitive performance is remarkably…disappointing. With losses to sides like Egypt and Zambia, and a plethora of non-wins against sides like Togo, Guinea, and Malawi, Senegal are ranked 47th according to Elo, which puts them 28th among teams on this list. A team can be less than the sum of their parts and Senegal have arguably gotten less out of their talent than anyone else.






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Club News

American Transfers: Stock Up & Stock Down

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The 2024 summer transfer window closed on September 1st and over a dozen Americans made a move in the two-month span.  These players range from youth players, like Mathias Albert, to veteran players like John Brooks.  Some moves were great, and some were not.  This article will review several of these transfers and determine if it was a stock up or stock down.

Sergiño Dest & Malik Tillman to PSV- Stock Up

Both Dest and Malik Tillman went on loan (with option to buy) to PSV in the Eredivisie at the start of last season.  Both had a great season where they could have gone to a better league for this season.  PSV decided to trigger both player’s buy option, making them permanent players for the Dutch club.  These are good moves in my opinion because Dest had a regrettable loan to Milan two seasons ago and a difficult relationship with Xavi Hernandez. 

Dest needs another season (in his case, half a season) with the Dutch club to develop, recover his young career, and show clubs that he can compete in the UCL.  The same goes for Tillman, who needs to further develop his attacking, work rate, and ability to compete in the UCL.  If both can replicate and/or take a step up from their performance from last season, they should return to a top 5 league.  (Note: Bayern has a buy-back option for Malik Tillman)

Santiago Castañeda to Paderborn- Stock Up

The Tampa-born Colombian-American spent last season with the 3. Liga with Duisburg where he appeared in 31 matches with 2 goals and 2 assists.  This season, he is with Paderborn, a consistent 2. Bundesliga club and he already has a goal in 5 starts across all competitions.  This is impressive when you realize that Santiago will be turning 20 years old on November 13th.  US fans (who do not follow USL closely) are just now learning about him and some probably have already written him off because of his background. 

He is taking a similar path as Lennard Maloney, who played in both 3. Liga and 2. Bundesliga before moving back up to the Bundesliga.  In Santiago’s case, he started with Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship before moving to Duisburg.  To add to the move being a stock up because of moving up a league, he is also a CDM, a position that the US is lacking depth at.  Other American CDMs who are in about his age (+/- 1 years old) are Daniel Edelman, Moses Nyeman, Marcel Ruszel, and Ethan Kohler (although, he is being converted to an RB) to name a few.  If he continues down this path, he can become the #1 American CDM in his age group followed by Pedro Soma (who is 2 years younger than Santiago) in the next age group.

Paxten Aaronson to Utrecht- Stock Up

The Paris Olympian will be heading back to the Eredivisie, but this time, he will be joining fellow Americans Taylor Booth and Rickson van Hees at Utrecht.  Paxten had a successful half season with Vitesse where he had 4 goals in 14 appearances.  As a CAM, he is competing against Gio Reyna and Malik Tillman (both being only a year older) for a spot on the USMNT.  Right now, he is not beating either one of them out, even with Gio being injury prone and Tillman’s lack of producibility for the USMNT. 

Gio has had several occasions of great moments with the national team and Tillman is coming off a 24-goal contribution season.  Going back to the Eredivisie would greatly help his development before heading back to Eintracht Frankfurt.  Also, if he has a more productive season than Tillman, then there is an argument to make Paxten the #2 CAM for the USMNT.  Currently, Tillman has 4 goal contributions in 5 matches across all competitions to Paxten’s 1 assist in 4 matches.

Caleb Wiley to Chelsea with loan to Strasbourg- Stock Up

This is one of the players who needed a move this summer and who was able to get an upgrade.  Caleb Wiley arguably has the highest ceiling amongst our U23 LBs.  Now, Strasbourg is employing him more as an LWB, which is, in my opinion, his best position.  Last season at Atlanta, Wiley started as a LW that led to a fantastic form.  When he moved to LB, he became inconsistent and stagnated, but he played more as a LWB and his form went back up.  Along with that and with him turning 20 in December, he needed to get out of MLS. 

We see what happens to players who stay in the MLS too long, i.e. John Tolkin, who has struggled to transition his club form to the USMNT, and Brandon Vazquez, who is now struggling to start for Monterrey and out of the USMNT picture.  Playing in a top 5 league and being developed into an LWB can help him unlock his full potential.  To add, Wiley already has 2 starts, a halftime substitution, and an assist for Strasbourg.

Rodrigo Neri to Atlanta 2- Stock Down

This is one of the most disappointing moves for those who follow the USYNT U20 team and the future state of the USMNT striker position.  Neri’s young career has dramatically fallen in just one year.  He was part of the Atletico de Madrid academy since 2021 but left their U19 team for Valencia U19 to now Atlanta 2.  Based on Be Soccer, Neri had 0 goal contributions in just only 11 matches for both Spanish U19 teams.  7 games in and Neri already has 3 goals and 1 assist for Atlanta 2.  This can either mean he has improved, returned to his Atletico U19 B form (where he had 17 goals in 32 matches), and/or that MLSNP is weaker than División de Honor Juvenil (the league that Atleti U19 is part of).  Either way, we can already see that his lack of goals has impacted his international career. 

The last time that he was part of the team was the U19/20 March camp against Morocco and England.  He was left off the CONCACAF U20 Championship for Keyrol Figueroa and Marcos Zambrano.  This is after being part of the U19 team that participated in the 2023 PanAm Games where he had 1 goal in 5 matches.  Besides that, he had scored a goal against England and a brace against Norway when he was part of the U17 team in 2022.  AS USA even had a piece on Neri back in 2022 calling him the next big thing for the US. 

Usually, this far of a drop would almost take you out of the international conversation but knowing US Soccer’s habit of calling up MLSNP players like Sergio Oregel Jr., there is still a chance that Neri can be back in the conversation in time of the 2025 U20 World Cup.  The only positive thing about this move is that it could help him get his career back on track.

Vaughn Covil to Las Vegas- Stock Down

For Covil’s career, this was the right move to make.  For his international career, it only leaves the Philippines for him.  His chances with England were never going to happen.  2-3 years ago, you could have said he had a chance with the US and even more with Canada with the right development.  Now, he is better off committing to the Philippines if he wants to have an international career. 

It’s a stock down move because it would’ve been better if he had made a deal with an EFL League 2 club than coming to the USL Championship and because he is limited to just one national team instead of four.  Hopefully, he does well at Las Vegas and can get a call-up by the Philippines.

Jonathan Gomez to PAOK- Stock Down

This move is one of the most disappointing of all the transfers this summer by an American.  While at Louisville and with the USYNT, he looked like a future LB/LWB option for the USMNT and another dual national battle with Mexico.  When he went to Real Sociedad and after his successful loan to Mirandes in La Liga 2, things were in an upward trajectory.  He left Real Sociedad (likely because they didn’t want to extend his contract, so they opt to sell him to make a profit) for reigning Greek champions, PAOK.  When it should have been a positive that he will be playing in his first season at a 1st division, it is a negative because of it being the Greek Super League 1.  PAOK is also in the Europa League and that should’ve been a positive for his career, but the Greek champions left him off their UEL roster. 

He is still only 21 years old and if he does well enough for them, then he can move up to a better league in a season or two.  At this moment, he has slipped out of the conversation to compete with Lund, Tolkin, and Wiley to be the future #1 LB/LWB.  To make matters worse, Caleb Wiley’s 2024/25 season has started off well at Strasbourg with 2 starts and an assist.  You could argue that during the 2023 U20 World Cup that JoGo was the better of the two at the LB/LWB position but now Wiley is above him on the depth chart.

Aidan Morris to Middlesborough- Stock Up

Like Caleb Wiley, Morris needed to leave MLS to further his development and avoid the situation that John Tolkin is in.  Even though Morris has been underwhelming for the USMNT, he has the potential to be a consistent player of the 23-26 men roster.  So far this season with Boro, he has been a standout and quick favorite amongst the fans.  Going to the EFL Championship was one of the best choices he could have made as his next stop.  The physicality of the league will teach him how to become more physical and his quick decision-making.  The development could easily put him in the top 4 CDM options for 2026. 

The biggest question for him is, can he transition his great club form to the national team.  If he can pull it off, he can jump ahead of Lennard Maloney and Tanner Tessmann, depending on how he does with Lyon this season.  This is a top 3 move by an American player not just because how the season is going so far for him but because Boro will be competing for promotion and development potential.

Tanner Tessman to Lyon- Stock Up

Tessmann’s transfer saga is one for the books.  He was closely linked to Inter Milan and Fiorentina until both fell apart because of disagreements.  Towards the end of the transfer window, he got a move to a top Ligue 1 club, Lyon.  If he had stayed with Venezia, he still would’ve been playing in a top-five league, but Lyon is the better option.  Venezia will be fighting to stay in the Serie A like they did in 2021/22, whereas Lyon is consistently a top 10 French club, and in many cases a top 5 club. 

To add to that, Lyon is in the UEL.  The season is not going well for Lyon right now, but they can recover and compete for UEFA qualification.  The club and the fans will be more demanding than Venezia because of their prestige, he can learn from veteran players like Matic and Veretout and it would require him to compete for starts.  It’ll be a real test for him after his last time in a top 5 league did not go as well and two great seasons in the Serie B.

All of these will help him take the next step and help him be in the top 3 CDM USMNT conversation.  The battle Tessmann, Aidan Morris, Maloney, Johnny Cardoso, and Tyler Adams (once he returns) for the top 2 CDM spots on the USMNT will be a joy to watch this season.

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Club News

Who’s a Keeper?

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

The USMNT has had a solid track record with goalkeepers over the last three decades. There seems to be a problematic situation with their current group. Is this an overreaction or a real concern for the USMNT which is less than 2 years away from hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The average age of the last seven USMNT goalkeepers to regularly start in one of the top two tiers in Europe is 27.5 years old and while it took several seasons for Kasey Keller, Brad Friedel, Tim Howard, and Brad Guzan to settle and have continued success they did while all having the opportunity to be the number goalkeeper for the USMNT.

Where there has been a lot of deserved criticism towards Matt Turner’s play with the USMNT lately it’s clear that he remains the best shot-stopper in the pool, but also clear that a transfer from Nottingham Forest is desperately needed to provide regular playing for Turner. Turner’s foot skills remain weak along with the rest of the USMNT goalkeeper pool very much an area that needs improving. Something they could learn from Tony Meola who was hands down the best USMNT goalkeeper with his feet.

Struggles also continue for Ethan Horvath whose transfer to Cardiff City last February was supposed to provide him with the needed playing time to push Turner for the number one goalkeeper spot of the USMNT but, his performance at Copa America didn’t inspire many, along with a recent match for Cardiff City where he conceded five goals.

DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 27: Matt Turner (L) and Ethan Horvath of United States interact during the United States Training Session at Al Gharafa Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)


November 27, 2022, in Doha, Qatar (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

USMNT Youth Goalkeepers

The current group of USMNT goalkeeper prospects appears to be solid, but if history has proven anything there are no guarantees. The list of the failed USMNT youth keepers over the last decade is long. It includes names like Joe Bendik, Alex Bono, Cody Cropper, Tally Hall, Clint Irwin, Dan Kennedy, and Luis Robles, of the over 15 USMNT prospect goalkeepers who have only been capped 18 times, eight of those held by Bill Hamid.

At the moment goalkeepers Antonio Carrera (20), Matt Freese (25), Chituru Odunze (21), and John Pulskamp (23) are on the outside looking in compared to the goalkeepers listed below.

Currently playing for Fulham U-21 Premier League 2 (Reserve League) Alex Borto (20) who was part of the 2023 U-20 World in May and June, but didn’t receive any playing time will need to increase his current playing time to get more opportunities but, I feel Borto is much lower on the youth USMNT depth chart at the moment.

A regular starter for the Chicago Fire over the last couple of seasons Chris Brady (20) is another highly touted USMNT goalkeeper, who has been held back from regularly being called into USMNT youth camps by his club. A move to Europe would provide him with the next level of competition needed to continue his growth as a goalkeeper.

Who would trust a now 18-year-old who hasn’t had any professional experience to start for the USMNT? Not many but Diego Kochen (18) who is currently with FC Barcelona Atlètic in the Third Division is a name that continues to be mentioned, but highly unlikely in my opinion.

As the starter for all four of the U-23 USMNT Olympic matches Patrick Schulte (23) has earned a call-up to the USMNT. Schulte has had a very strong season with the Columbus Crew which accounts for 8 clean sheets over all matches at the time of this article.

Many fans think Gaga Slonina (20) is the best U-23 goalkeeper in the player pool and is destined to be the number-one goalkeeper after the 2026 cycle. Slonina is currently playing in EFL League One the third division in England. Slonina was the starting goalkeeper for U-20 USMNT where he had four straight clean sheets helping lead the US to the quarter-finals. He also was part of the U-23 USA Olympic team but failed to receive any playing time.


October 4, 2022, (Photo by Christian Hansen/Chicago Fire FC)

Aging or Bridge Goalkeeper Options

The list of recent third and often injured USMNT goalkeepers Drake Callender (26), Roman Celentano (23), Sean Johnson (35), and Zack Steffen (29) provide little to no confidence when looking at a current solution and none are likely to break into the top two of the depth chart but, stranger things have happened in the world of USMNT goalkeepers.

Looking Ahead

With less than 2 years until the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it’s unlikely that any of the younger USMNT goalkeepers will be able to play at higher levels and contend for the number one spot, which I believe still belongs to Matt Turner, but, Turner needs to do whatever possible to get a transfer to another top five leagues or worse case Eredivisie or EFL Championship as he needs to be playing matches every week to ensure he’s in form and improving headed into the World Cup with the backup position is up for grabs.

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USMNT

Gregg Berhalter’s Legacy

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Gregg Berhalter’s time as the USMNT manager has come to an end.  USSF has made the announcement that they have terminated Berhalter’s contract after 5 years in charge of the USMNT.  There are many highs and lows during his time as manager with just as many praises and controversies.  After the humiliating defeat at Couva during the 2018 World Cup Qualifying, there needed to be a change and the goal for 2022 was to qualify no matter what and how.  It was understandable for many fans to let bad results during Berhalter’s first cycle because of the goal we had set for 2022.  Now that we made it out of the group during the 2022 WC, the expectations for the USMNT would increase.  Those expectations have not been fulfilled since the rehiring of Gregg Berhalter.  Here are the top 10 reasons he had to go.

Crashing out of the 2024 Copa America

We were invited and given the rights to host the 2024, Copa America.  The USMNT’s first time participating and hosting the tournament since 2016.  The only players to appear in both tournaments were Christian Pulisic and Ethan Horvath.  On paper, the 2024 squad was better than the 2016 squad in almost every position.  Jürgen Klinsmann had a weaker squad but managed to reach the Semi-Finals in the 2016 Copa America.  It is one of the biggest accomplishments for the USMNT in recent history.  When you look at this year’s roster and what they did last year, the minimum goal should be the Quarterfinals and at most a Semi-Final appearance.  The USMNT did not come anywhere close. 

Players like Weston McKennie and Musah greatly underperformed.  A lack of discipline cost us games, like Tim Weah’s red card, and the foul that led to the Uruguay goal.  Against Bolivia, the USMNT only scored 2 goals against the worst team in CONMEBOL (1 win and a -10 GD in their WCQ campaign).  Giving up a lead when a man down and ultimately losing to Panama should never have happened, especially against a team that the USMNT has only lost to at home 3 times since 1993.  This put the USMNT in the worst possible situation in the tournament, a result against Uruguay and a win or draw for Bolivia. 

Good news did arrive for the USMNT when Bolivia tied the game, but this led to Berhalter informing our players prior to a set piece about the score.  This gave the indication that he wanted to chase for a draw, which has been a common theme during his tenure.  You cannot rely on Bolivia to bail you out.  You MUST go for the win.  As Herculez Gomez said, it is a loser mentality. 

People will blame the refs, Weah’s red card, or not having Dest, but that is not an excuse for poor in-game management by Berhalter.  After the firing of Gregg Berhalter, ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle wrote an article where he said that our group exit from the 2024 Copa America is the first time the USMNT had been eliminated in the group stage of a tournament that was being hosted in the US.  That is just one more stain on the legacy of Gregg Berhalter.

Poor Match Results

As mentioned, the poor result against Panama, a team we should have defeated even with a man down.  There are plenty more matches to talk about.  Since being rehired, Berhalter has a 7-1-6 record.  The most infamous would be against Trinidad & Tobago away.  Again, people will use the excuse that Dest got a red card, and it does not matter since we had qualified for the next round of the 2024 Nations League.  That was a game you should not have lost even with a man down, more so than the Panama match.  There are many other games that can be mentioned but let’s look at more record first.  Berhalter has an overall record of 44-13-17.  When playing outside of the US, the record is 4-7-8. 

Against top 20 FIFA ranked teams, the record is 5-5-8.  Four of those wins came against Mexico and the other being against Iran.  When we compare him to Klinsmann and Bob Bradley against top 20 FIFA ranked teams, Klinsmann was 10-6-14 and Bradley was 9-5-15.  For Bradley, only 3 of those wins were against the same team (Mexico) and 6 in total were against the same teams (2 times against Ecuador, Germany, and Mexico each) for Klinsmann.  This record would make Berhalter the winningest coach by percentage in USMNT history, but there are important contexts to include.  Jamaica was just seconds away from eliminating us in the NL Semi-Finals until an own goal by Cory Burke.  The USMNT did rally to defeat them 3-1 in extra time, but it was still humiliating for the team. 

Then you have the loss against Colombia before the Copa America where we lost 1-5.  The last time the team conceded 5 goals was in 2009.  A 1-3 defeat against Germany back in Oct of 2023 where we were not competitive at all.  From June 5 to November 25, 2022, the US had a 1-5-1 record.  The last match I will reference is the match against Honduras in San Pedro Sula where we had no control over the game in the 1st half.  It was not until Ricardo Pepi helped save Berhalter’s job with 2 assists and 1 goal to give us a 1-4 win.

Tactics

One of the biggest problems that Gregg Berhalter has is in-game management and pre-game tactics.  His go to formation is a 4-3-3, which is not always bad, but it is defensive minded and creates little chances.  We have seen that over the 5 years of having him as a manager.  During the 2022 WCQ, our goals per match were 1.5 and 1.8 during the 2021 Gold Cup.  The goals conceded per match was 0.2 during that Gold Cup and 0.7 during the WCQ.  Yes, statistically we would not concede a goal, but the USMNT was likely to only win 1-0.  No one likes a 1-0 game, because not only is it boring, but it is risky.  All it would take is for the opposition to score 1 goal to take 2 points from you.  Make it a mission to get 2 goals every game to give you some breathing space.  Berhalter also looks to park the bus, even when it is a tie. 

Against Panama in the Copa America, Berhalter decided to park the bus when it was tied and with a man down at the start of the 2nd half.  That is a high toll to ask the players to park it for 45+ minutes.  You knew you were playing Uruguay next, and that Panama has a very good chance of beating Bolivia.  A draw against Uruguay was going to be very difficult.  Yes, we were a man down, but that does not mean we should have given up getting the 2nd goal.  As we saw, we conceded a 2nd goal and it cost us to be in the worst possible situation in the group stage. 

Besides parking the bus, Berhalter wants us to score primarily off the wings and from crosses.  Against Jamaica during the 2024 NL, we attempted 41 crosses with only 11 being accurate.  None of the 3 goals in that match came from a cross.  Against Trinadad & Tobago at home during the QF of the 2024 NL, they went 11 for 39 on crosses.  The first goal did not come until the 80th minute mark, which should never have come close to being a draw against Trinadad & Tobago at home.  Only 1 of the 3 goals we scored in the last 10 minutes were from a cross.  When BJ Callaghan led the team during the 2023 NL, our crosses were reduced to 17 attempts in both matches.  In both matches, the goals came from up the middle where the team scored a total of 5 goals and 0 goals conceded. 

It was some of the best football that this group of guys have played in the last 5 years.  The players can score more goals than 1 and can score goals without crossing the ball.  As we can see, Berhalter does not know how to react when things do not go to plan as we saw against Panama and against Colombia.  A coach needs to be able to react and make the right call when things go sideways.  That is a major weakness of his and pundits have pointed it out in the past.  After Wales got their goal in the 2022 WC against the USMNT, Berhalter responded by substituting in Jordan Morris instead of Gio Reyna.  Gio Reyna is a playmaker, Jordan Morris is not.  At the time, the US did not have a playmaker on the pitch and that would be the time to use our best player in that role, Gio Reyna.  That is not the first time. 

During his 2nd cycle, Berhalter would commonly substitute Gio Reyna off when he decides to hold a draw or goes a man down.  The US did not win a single game when Gio was subbed off.  During the Copa America, Berhalter left Johnny Cardoso on the bench for Tyler Adams.  Johnny was developed in Brazil and played in several Copa Libertadores and was a standout in LaLiga once he arrived. Tyler Adams only played a total of 138 minutes between the EPL and the EFL Cup last season (Adams was out for majority of the season due to injuries).  Common sense would say to start Johnny Cardoso, but Gregg Berhalter did the complete opposite.  Besides that, Weston McKennie had been playing poorly for the USMNT all year and looked visibly unfit during the Copa America. 

Berhalter continued to start McKennie and gave him a total of 258 minutes.  Berhalter continued to award McKennie with starts and minutes when common sense would say that he must be benched.  Berhalter also had a major problem with rotating players and that had a major impact on the endurance of the players when it came to tournaments.  It was noticeable during the 2022 WC and Copa America.  These are all things that will be remembered by fans.

Player Selection

During his 1st cycle, Gregg Berhalter called up an astounding 65 different players in just competitive matches alone.  During the WCQ, he called up 39 different players to the camps.  Yes, after the 2018 cycle, the USMNT had to rebuild, but does it really require trying out 65 different players to figure that out?  For the WCQ, 13 of the 39 did not make the final cut.  I can understand making 2-3 changes every camp at the youth level, but this is the senior level.  He had already been with the team for 2 years.  He should have had a better idea who he needed to bring with him to the WCQ, which started in the Fall of 2021. 

The changes in the WCQ roster make sense if there is an injury, but not all the changes were made due to injuries, i.e., Gianluca Busio and Paul Arriola.  Berhalter had from 2019 to the Summer of 2021 to determine his WCQ roster and the alternate players.  When creating a team, either for business or sports, you need cohesion, or brotherhood to Berhalter, to get the best out of the team when the results matter. 

Continuously making changes for the most important competitive matches in your tenure will lead to problems.  By the end of the WCQ, the USMNT tied for 3rd in points and only qualified through goal differential.  The USMNT had a record of 7-4-3 with the away record being 1-3-3.  Who knows what that record could have been if the roster was more consistent.  Berhalter has improved his roster selection by focusing more on the players in Europe than the players in the MLS.  The argument for having half the roster or more being MLS players because they were veteran players and the players in Europe were too young.  It is an understandable reason, if that is the case. 

He did make significant changes to the roster when he took back control of the team by removing Jordan Morris, Jesus Ferreira, and Cristian Roldan from the team.  In this current cycle, Berhalter called up 36 different players in the 14 matches he oversaw.  To note, 7 of the 36 are or were MLS-based players.

Achievements

Gregg Berhalter does deserve big credit to the achievements he made while the manager of the USMNT.  While in charge of the team, he won the CONCACAF Gold Cup and won the CONCACAF Nations League in 2021 and 2024.  Now, you can make an argument that the players had a bigger part in that, when this is the best generation of players we have ever had.  Berhalter was still the manager and deserves the credit as well. 

After the US failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018, Gregg Berhalter accomplished qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.  It might not have been the prettiest World Cup for the USMNT, but the team did advance to the first round of the knockout stage.  That will be a positive note for his legacy as a USMNT manager.  The only thing that is missing from his list of achievements is a signature win.

There is one more piece to Gregg Berhalter’s legacy that will be remembered by many fans, but I doubt would be a footnote to his legacy (it would eventually be forgotten).  That being his relationship with the players.  I touched a little on in the “Tactics” section by awarding players starts and minutes when they did not deserve it, but it goes further than that.  It is known and visible that Berhalter showed favoritism towards certain players, those being the players on the “leadership committee”.  These players continued to play match after match when they did not deserve it or were too physically tired to continue. 

Tyler Adams mentioned in a press conference during the 2024 Copa America that he never speaks to Berhalter about soccer outside of the camps.  Whether with just a few or everyone, it is a concern that a coach does not speak to his players about the sport, on or off the field.  During the Copa America, it began to look like the players saw Berhalter as more of a friend than a coach.  It can be seen just as a fan by comparing the discipline of the players in the 2022 cycle to the 2024 cycle.  That is a huge concern within a team because it creates complacency and that was visible during the 2024 Nations League and the Copa America.

On paper, Gregg Berhalter will appear to be a top USMNT manager in its history, but once you peel those away and look deeper, he would be ranked below the likes of Bob Bradley, Bruce Arena, and Jürgen Klinsmann.

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