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A Quick Game Theory Look at the September and October CONCACAF Qualifying Window

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The USMNT plays six world cup qualifiers in the September and October FIFA windows.  It is widely reported that we play:

September

At El Salvador

Canada

At Honduras

 

October

Jamaica

@Panama

Costa Rica

Much has been made about how the USMNT might rotate and approach these games but what of our opponents?  Many think it possible all the teams but Mexico will punt games with the USA because they would expect to lose.  However, I do not think they will go into it with such a negative outlook.  I would believe they all expect to win at home and that is generally a good recipe for qualifying.  I do think teams will have to rotate, three games on top of club schedule, in a FIFA window is daunting.  Gregg Berhalter seemed to hint that he will be playing his best 11 in two games and rotating into a third game.  I think most will follow that formula.

Here is what I have come up with on the fly for the game theory of our opponents:

  1.  Play your best possible at home.
  2. For Canada/Jamaica/Costa Rica/Honduras, they need to maximize points against each other in a race for third.

September Window

ELS

CAN

HON

USA

HON

@CAN

HON

@USA

@ELS

@CAN

ELS

USA

 

In red I have the most obvious rotation games for each of our opponents.  El Salvador will play its best in their two home games and then whatever is left on the road at Canada.  Canada has two home games and would start their best.  This leaves their one road game against the USA for obvious rotation.  Honduras is in a tricky spot.  They would want to field their best lineup at home (Rule #1) and they really need a result against Canada according to Principle #2.  But that Canada road game is tough as is the USA game and going to El Salvador could be the easiest chance for three points.  Honestly, they could do anything, but playing your best against Canada and the USA and trying to get a result rotated against El Salvador makes sense.  

October Window

JAM

PAN

CRC

@USA

@ELS

@HON

CAN

USA

ELS

@HON

@CAN

@USA

 

This window sets up nicely for the USMNT in theory.  All our opponents have two road games and a single home game.  Jamaica needs to get a result against Honduras more than one at the USA.  Or in other words, their chances of getting a result at Honduras is far greater than at the USA.  The USA road game is the obvious choice for rotation.  

Panama need to play the home game against the USA with their best but then are in the same situation as Honduras in September.  Do they roll the dice against El Salvador, or try to beat El Salvador and punt the road game against fellow 3rd place contender Canada?  

Costa Rica can’t gamble and rotate for the home game against El Salvador and risk dropping points.  Then it is much like Jamaica and do they try hardest to get a result in neighboring Honduras or at the USA?  The smart money would be to rotate the USA game, bunker, and hope.

Conclusion

While this quick game theory exercise suggests teams will rotate against the USA in three of the first six games, they are the three USA home games.   So, really, the path will not be easier than history suggests it will be, as teams will try their hardest against the USA in their home games and the USMNT has generally won its home games.  I don’t think in these early windows that Gregg Berhalter can gamble and rotate the squad for home games.  Dropping points at home is simply too big a problem to risk at all.

What might benefit the USA is that their first team-up against rotated Concacaf opposition might put games away early.  That if the USMNT is up by 3 or more goals that players like Pulisic and Adams and McKennie can be subbed out early and subbed in for bigger minutes in the rotated game.  It will certainly also help that the threat to drop points at home seems minimal barring disastrous performances.

I’d expect after these two windows the calculus will change.  If the USA or Mexico or some other team is out to a strong lead, you might see teams rotate against them even in home games to maximize their chance for 3rd.  However, points are points and I doubt we ever see rotated opponents on the road. 

 

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USMNT

Launching Caring Excellence in Northern Kentucky

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  • Caring for Villa Hills, Fort Thomas, Union, Florence, Crestview Hills and Northern Kentucky


Over the past few years, I’ve written here at Chasing A Cup about family, faith, leadership, and walking through life with intention. Some of you have been reading since the early days. Some of you prayed for my family. Some of you even rolled up your sleeves and gave blood — blood that was meant for my mom and others like her in their time of need.

I’ll never forget that.

Three years ago, my mom passed away. It was a season of heartbreak, but also one of clarity. As I stood beside my family — and as I supported others in our community grieving their own parents — I came to understand how deeply care matters. Not just in hospitals or emergencies, but in the everyday: the quiet, complicated, deeply human moments that make up the final chapters of someone’s life.

That realization stayed with me. And over time, it changed the direction of my work.

For most of my career, I worked in product management — building teams, delivering systems, and leading with structure and strategy. I still believe in all of that. But I also wanted to build something more personal. Something rooted not just in outcomes, but in presence and compassion.

That’s why Sarah and I decided to open a Caring Excellence office in Northern Kentucky.

Caring Excellence has been serving families across Kentucky for over 13 years. It’s a family-owned, fully licensed home care agency that specializes in non-medical, in-home support for seniors and adults — help with daily living, memory care, companionship, and more. And now, we’re proud to bring that same level of compassionate, character-driven care to Florence and the surrounding region.

Our new Northern Kentucky office serves families in places like Villa Hills, Union, Fort Thomas, Crestview Hills, and Florence — communities filled with multi-generational households, strong family ties, and seniors who deserve to age with dignity.

At Caring Excellence, we focus on people first. We don’t just fill schedules — we carefully match caregivers to clients based on personality, needs, and values. Sarah leads our caregiver hiring, drawing from her years of experience as both a caregiver and healthcare professional. She looks not just for skill, but for heart — people of integrity, empathy, and real compassion.

As for me, I now use my business background to support the team behind the scenes — building systems, developing processes, and making sure our caregivers have the tools and training they need to serve others well.

This new venture is deeply personal. It’s also missional. It’s about stepping into people’s lives when they need support most and offering something simple, but powerful: peace of mind.

We’re not moving to Florence, but we’re fully committed to this region. We’re investing in it — by hiring local caregivers, building relationships with local providers, and offering families home care in Northern Kentucky a trusted option for high-quality home care.

To those of you who’ve been on this journey with me — through writing, through prayer, through donating blood when we needed it most — thank you. I hope this new chapter reflects what we’ve always believed in here: that service matters, character counts, and small acts of care can ripple further than we think.

If you know someone in Northern Kentucky who needs support — in Union, Villa Hills, Crestview Hills, Fort Thomas, or Florence — we’d be honored to walk alongside them.

Thanks for reading, and for being part of the story.

—Marcus


Learn More
To learn more about Caring Excellence and our in-home care services for Northern Kentucky families, visit:
https://caringexcellenceathome.com/northern-kentucky-office


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USMNT

Concacaf Gold Cup is becoming tarnished

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

Not long ago, winning your confederation’s tournament earned a spot in the FIFA Confederations Cup, a prestigious competition held in the World Cup host nation the summer before the world’s biggest tournament.

The tournament featured the champions of all six confederations (AFC, CAF, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, OFC, and UEFA), along with the reigning FIFA World Cup winner and the host nation, rounding out the field to eight teams. The tournament was last played in 2017.

The Concacaf Gold Cup is a semi-cycle tournament played in the first and third years of the cycle. The CAF Africa Cup of Nations is the only other confederation that plays two tournaments a cycle, and in many circles, the frequency of the Concacaf Gold Cup and the addition of the Concacaf Nations League has made the Gold Cup a throwaway tournament for the USMNT, as it’s been six years since the so called A list player pool has played in the event.

It raises the question for FIFA and Concacaf: should the Gold Cup be played once a cycle, and should FIFA consider bringing back the Confederations Cup?

The USMNT won the inaugural Gold Cup in 1991 and has claimed seven of the 17 editions since. Only two other CONCACAF nations Mexico (9) and Canada (1)—have lifted the trophy, and both are contenders in this edition.

The USMNT has a strong track record at the Gold Cup, finishing first in their group every year except 2011. They’ve reached 12 finals, with a record of 69 wins, 12 draws, and 9 losses, scoring 189 goals and conceding just 60


Gold Cup Player Stats

Across 17 editions of the Gold Cup, the USMNT has netted 189 goals, conceded just 60, and recorded 50 clean sheets. Here’s a look at the players who made it happen, those who found the back of the net, and those who kept it out.

Goals


18-Landon Donovan
13-Clint Dempsey
9-Eric Wynalda
8-Brian McBride
7-Jesus Ferreira

Assists


16-Landon Donovan
7-Michael Bradley
6-DaMarcus Beasley
6-Alejandro Bedoya
6-Eric Wynalda
5-Clint Dempsey

Wins


17-Kasey Keller
11-Tim Howard
8-Tony Meola
7-Matt Turner

Shutouts


14-Kasey Keller
8-Tim Howard
6-Tony Meola
6-Matt Turner

Captain

10-Michael Bradley
10-Kasey Keller
9-Carlos Bocanegra
8-Tony Meola
7-Claudio Reyna

Gold Cup Manager Stats

Over the past 34 years, the USMNT has reached 12 of the 17 Gold Cup finals under the leadership of seven different managers. Here’s a look at how each of them performed.

Matches Coached


25-Bruce Arena
18-Bob Bradley
12-Gregg Berhalter
12-Jurgen Klinsmann
10-Bora Milutinovic
8-Steve Sampson
5-B.J. Callaghan

Matches Won


19-Bruce Arena – GF-52-, GA-14
14-Bob Bradley – GF-34, GA-17
11-Gregg Berhalter – GF-26, GA-3
9-Jurgen Klinsmann – GF-32, GA-9
8-Bora Milutinovic – GF-15, GA-8
6-Steve Sampson – GF-14, GA-5
2-B.J. Callaghan – GF-16, GA-4

Gold Cup Trophies


3-Bruce Arena
1-Gregg Berhalter
1-Bob Bradley
1-Jurgen Klinsmann
1-Bora Milutinovic

Conclusion

In the future, U.S. Soccer and the USMNT should clearly communicate roster expectations for the Gold Cup, especially if a full A-list squad is not planned. Transparency on this front is essential, as it directly affects fan interest and attendance.

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Club News

From Louisville to Lisbon: Joshua Wynder’s Journey with S.L. Benfica

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The current state of the USMNT has been at an all-time low since Couva in 2017.  One of the positions in dire situation is Center Back.  Tim Ream will be 38 by the time of the 2026 World Cup.  Chris Richards has too many highs and lows and has not shown his club form with the US.  Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty have yet to perform for the national team.  Miles Robinson, despite what many MLS fans want to believe, is not good enough and makes too many errors, like the second Turkish goal on June 7th, 2025.  Walker Zimmerman has one World Cup left in him and he has a history of making critical errors as well, like the penalty against Gareth Bale in the 2022 World Cup.  Lastly, Mark McKenzie has improved his game since his move to Toulouse, but he is lacking the deserved opportunities and a good partnership.

Our U20 CBs will need to be called up sooner rather than later, either before or immediately after the 2026 World Cup.  The top 3 prospects by fans and analysts are Noahkai Banks, Matai Akinmboni, and Joshua Wynder.  Of the three, Joshua Wynder is the oldest at 20 years old and is part of a club that is world-renowned for their development, S.L. Benfica.

How did Wynder manage to accomplish such a move from Louisville City in the USL Championship to Benfica?  To summarize, Wynder had a breakout season for Lou City at 17 years old in 2022, so much so that he was included in the US U20 World Cup team in 2023. 

LOUvOKC.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Wynder secured a spot to go on trial at Benfica and passed.  On June 8th, 2023, Benfica officially acquired Joshua Wynder from Lou City for a record-breaking $1.2 million transfer fee, which still stands today.

Louisville City FC, LOUvPIT.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Benfica registered Wynder with the second team for the 2023/2024 season, who participate in Liga Portugal 2.  Due to Portuguese rules (players play in the youth system until they are 19 years old), he spent the season with Benfica’s UEFA Youth League team and U23 team and only received 21 minutes with the B team until a season-ending injury.  What began as a promising start, with the support of the fans, was cut short after just six matches.  The following season went according to plan for Wynder.  Wynder became a consistent starter for the B team where he started in 29 matches and appeared in a total of 31 matches.  He also scored four goals, all headers from corners. 


His success with the B team made him a fan-favorite and several calls to be called up to the first team by fans on social media.  That day came on April 9th, 2025, when he made the team sheet for Benfica’s Taça de Portugal Semi-Final match against FC Tirsense.  Wynder made his first team debut when he was subbed in at the 76th minute mark of that match.  He made a following appearance on the bench for the first team in their second leg match against FC Tirsense.

As early as November 27, 2024, it was reported by Glorioso 1904 that Joshua Wynder had gained the attention of the Benfica manager, Bruno Lage.  The report further said that Wynder was becoming an option for the next season’s first team.  A similar report surfaced on March 25, 2025, by Record, in Portugal, that Wynder is on track to be with the first team for the 2025/2026 season.  That day may be coming sooner rather than later.  Joshua Wynder will be joining Benfica on their 2025 Club World Cup campaign.  This will be a true test for him to prove to Bruno Lage that he is ready to be part of the first team for the upcoming 2025/2026 Liga Portugal and UEFA Champions League season.  If he is given serious minutes with the first team and performs, Joshua Wynder needs to be considered for the 2026 World Cup or immediately following the World Cup.


Benfica is in Group C of the Club World Cup with Auckland City, Bayern München, and Boca Juniors.  Their first match is against Boca Juniors, 33-time Argentine champions, on June 16th.  Game two is on June 20th against 10-time New Zealander champions, Auckland City FC.  Lastly, their 3rd group stage match is against the 6-time UEFA Champions League winners, Bayern München, on June 24th.

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