USMNT
GROUPED OR GLORY: Group A
Qatar | Elo: 49 | FIFA: 50 |
History: On December 2nd, 2010, The International Federation of Football(FIFA) declared that Qatar would host the Middle-East’s first Coupe du Monde. The decision sparked outrage, a bevy of accusations, and a steady stream of controversy, obscuring one of the more remarkable on-field turn-arounds in international football. When Al Enabbi were awarded the crown jewel of sport, The Maroon were ranked 114th(FIFA) having managed just 1 win across 8 games in the final round of AFC – The Asian Football Confederation – World Cup Qualification. Less than a decade later, Qatar were the champions of Asia, ranked 55th after a shock title run featuring wins over heavyweights UAE, South Korea, and Japan. In 10 Asian Cups before the 2019 edition, Qatar had managed a paltry 6 wins, garnering 27 points from 32 outings. In 2019, they won all 7 fixtures, scoring 19, and conceding once.
A British protectorate until 1971, Qatar was a relatively late-comer to international soccer, opening its football program with a 2-1 loss to fellow ex-protectorate Bahrain. Qatar would gain independence a year later, making The Maroon eligible for World Cup Qualification in 1974. Qatar withdrew in 74 but would debut 4 years later in the 78 tournament with a 2-0 win against… Bahrain; they lost their next 3 matches – including a 3-0 defeat to the Bahrainis – and finished last. They’d fall well short in 82; but managed to beat Bahrain a 2nd time in Bahrain’s only qualification match. It was the 81 U20 World Cup where Qatar made its first real mark reaching the final after wins against England and Brazil with a team developed by Qatar’s storied Aspire Academy. 8 years later that generation reached its zenith coming within a point of the 1990 World Cup. They came close again in 98 and picked up their first piece of silverware in the 92 Arabian Gulf Cup where they finished 2 points clear of 2nd place… Bahrain.
Amid a deepening pool of Asian teams, and a limited talent pool, Qatar returned to mediocrity in the 2000’s. With political incentives for Qatari soccer to improve, The Qatar Football Association took a more unconventional approach to team building. Aspire Academy started tracking young players across the world as Qatar’s government broke its own citizenship laws to naturalize the most talented kids they could find. Aspire Academy would end up tracking millions of players. For a country with a population that barely passed 1 million, this meant artificially multiplying the talent base several times over. Though not without controversy, this approach proved remarkably effective with Aspire Academy’s work laying the seeds for unprecedented highs.
This November we’ll see the culmination of one of football’s most ambitious projects. Qatar are good now. They’ll have a chance to show how good. Was 2019 a peak? Or was it the precursor for something greater?
The world is watching. For better or worse, Qatar is in its eye.
Expected Finish: 2nd
Why?
Hosts do well. All but one host nation in this near century-spanning tournament has successfully reached round two. Of the 7 hosts who had never advanced past round one, only one fell at the first hurdle. That casualty was South Africa – ranked 63(Elo) – who missed out, via tiebreaker, in a group with reigning finalists France, eventual semi-finalists Uruguay, and perennial progressors El Tri. According to Elo and FIFA, Qatar is significantly better than South Africa was. They also face, arguably, the easiest set of opponents in the tourney.
Qatar’s players have also played together, alot. Not only do all 26 call-ups play in the same league, but this roster is virtually identical to the one we saw in the 2019 Asian Cup, the 2021 Copa America, and the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Beyond that, all of these players developed together in the Aspire Football Academy meaning most of them have been learning how to play with each other for more than a decade. Simply put, It’s possible the players of The Maroon will have the best chemistry of any national team that has ever participated in a World Cup Finals.
Qatar demonstrated proof of concept with their performance in the 2019 Asian Cup. Winning is one thing, perfection is another. Qatar were the first team to win every game at the Asian Cup since 1974, where Iran won 4 games to clinch a 6 team tournament headlined by relative minnows Kuwait and China. Qatar won 7 out of 7 games to clinch a 16 team tournament featuring maybe the deepest pool of quality teams to ever grace the continent. In other words, the last time Qatar played in the Middle East, they put together, arguably, the most impressive continental performance in Asian history. For comparison, perceived favorites Senegal received much acclaim for an AFCON – African Cup of Nations – win where they played much weaker opponents and fared significantly worse.
Many-a pundit view The Maroon as minnows. I disagree.
Why not?
The 2019 Asian Cup was a while ago. More recent showings aren’t as promising. In the 2019 Copa America they finished last in a group with Argentina, Colombia, and Paraguay. The latter two failed to qualify; Paraguay didn’t even come close. South America is tough, but Ecuador managed.
Their most recent set of competitive games came in the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup hosted – and won – by the USMNT(United States Men’s National team). At first glance, they did ok; reaching the semi-final and losing to the eventual champion – in unlucky fashion – at their opponent’s backyard. Context paints a different picture. Qatar was one of a handful of sides to send a full-strength team to North America. They beat Honduras and Grenada – two teams who fell well short of world cup qualification – convincingly, tied a Panamanian team depleted by injury, and were an offside-call away from blowing a 3-goal lead to non-qualifier El Salvador. In the semi-final they faced a team of American reserves, succumbing to an attack spearheaded by Matthew Hoppe; currently playing left-bench with championship side Middlesborough.
Qatar look good when their opponents sit-back and give Qatar space. They look less good when the opposition pushes their lines and presses Qatar’s playmakers. This was the story of their matches against El Salvador and the US where they were dominant in the first half and got overrun in the second. They’re particularly vulnerable in transition and their three group-mates all have an abundance of pace.
There’s also a deficit in player quality. Qatar ranks 32 of 32 in both of our talent measures; away from home, they’ve looked the part.
The good news is these games are at home. While there is certainly a case against The Maroon, I’m banking on history.
Key Players
2019 Asian footballer of the year, Club World Cup bronze medalist, and arguably the greatest player in the history of the Qatar Stars league, Akram Afif is Qatar’s best player(ever). A phenomenal playmaker, neat on the ball, and a threat to score from just about anywhere, Afif will need to perform for Qatar’s offense to click. Afif has appeared 9 times in La Liga for Sporting Gijon making him the only player in the pool with top league experience.
Almoez Ali is one of the few players, ever, to be the top scorer of two continental competitions; in two separate continents. He won the golden boot – and was named best player – at the 2019 Asian Cup with a record-breaking 9 tallies. 2 years later, at the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup, Almoez scored 4 times in 5 games to be top scorer again. Ali was also named to the IFFHS AFC Men’s Team of the Decade to go along with an undisputed case as Qatar’s lead talisman. With 42 goals in 85 appearances, the Al Duhail striker will need to produce for Qatar to advance. Ali’s also a decent bet for goal of the tournament.
Netherlands | Elo: 4 | FIFA: 8 |
History: Behold The Oranje. With three appearances in the final, and no appearances at the winner’s podium, the Dutch are uncontested as the World Cup’s greatest bridesmaid. They are one of six national teams to reach the final three separate times. They are one of seven national teams to reach five semi-finals; but they are not one of the eight teams to hoist the Jules Rimet. What they’ve done is actually harder than just winning it all, even if it’s less satisfying.
Recent heart-breaks have been particularly potent. In 2010, entering South Africa as a dark horse, The Flying Dutchmen – literally at times – huffed and fouled their way to a perfect finals run – including a come-back win against No.1 ranked Brazil – before succumbing in overtime to No.2 ranked Spain. 2014 started sweetly, with a flying dutchman putting La Roja to the sword. The dish turned sour in the semis in a shoot-out loss to the Argentines. 2018 ended before it began. Needing a top two finish in a qualification group with two eventual quarterfinalists, The Oranje could only manage third. Their female counterparts had an inspired run to the 2019 World Cup final where they… lost to an American juggernaut.
Before the Dutch were bridesmaids, they were minnows, combining for 2 appearances – and 0 points – for the first 40 years of the Wereldbeker. Then, upon a Cruyff-faced wave, the Dutch entered 74 as the favorite. They lost… in the final. They entered 78 without Cruyff and reached the final once more; then lost to Argentina. While The Oranje’s style of play – the quintessential example of positional football – left a legacy so strong that the 74 and 78 Dutch sides are still regarded as one of the greatest teams ever, winners they were not. I would be remiss not to mention that the Dutch managed a singular European triumph in 88, but that’s really not the same.
Once more the Dutchmen will swim against a tide, and once more they will dare to escape it. Will the soccer gods finally smile down on Johan’s children?
Expected Finish: 1st
Why?
They are the most talented team, ranking top 10 in both TMV and WCDCS. They have been the best team, ranking top 10 in Elo and FIFA. They are undefeated in 15, have won their last six group games in their competition, and have a stronger track record at this tournament than the other three teams combined.
Why wouldn’t you pick them?
Why not?
Qualification was not easy. A loss to Turkey along with ties against Norway, Scotland, and Montenegro put the Netherlands in a precarious position in their final qualification match. Needing to not lose, the Dutch comfortably beat Haaland-less Norway, thereby booking their ticket to Qatar. That might be less impressive than Ecuador booking qualification from South America with games to spare.
The Netherlands also can’t say they’re continental champions, having lost to the Czech Republic in the Round of 16 at the 2021 European Championship. Perhaps they’ll falter before the champions of Asia and Africa.
While the Dutch aren’t allergic to build-up, they’re often direct. Transition offense is typically less effective when opposing defenses leave less space behind. Both Senegal and Ecuador leave extra players back when they attack. This makes both unusually difficult to break down. Ecuador in particular has a knack for peeling off points from more talented teams.
The Dutch are clear favorites, but they are not invincible.
Key Players
Barcelona starlet Frenkie de Jong may be the Netherland’s most essential piece for successfully surviving this phase of the competition. Facing two sides that usually give little, the Netherlands will rely on de Jong being a reliable metronome in the middle of the pitch. Gifted with the ball, and a strong orchestrator under pressure, Netherlands may well rely on Frenkie’s progression and ball-security to successfully navigate the group stage.
Matthijs De Ligt is world class. An attacking midfielder in his youth, De Ligt is the center-back equivalent of a 5-tool player. He’s a great passer, is strong and fast. Is excellent positionally, and is a threat in the air. In 2018 De Ligt won the golden boy awarded to Europe’s most impressive young player. In 2022, the 23 year old already has a strong claim as The Oranje’s best player. If there is to be total triumph in Qatar, Matthijs will have to deliver.
Senegal | Elo: 43 | FIFA: 16 |
History: Enter the African Champion. In 2002, the Lions of Teranga conjured magic. As France fell, Senegal soared, becoming the second African team to reach the quarter-finals. In 2022, Senegal carries the hopes of a continent. The world still waits for an African semi-finalist. To many, Senegal is the continent’s best hope.
Senegal won independence from France in 1960. The Senegalese Football Federation(FSF) formed later that year. In 1963 Senegal joined the Confederation for African Football(CAF), before debuting at the African Cup of Nations in 1965. With a win, a draw, and a loss, Senegal finished 4th. In 1968, they repeated that trick to finish 5th. They entered World Cup Qualification in 1970; their debut came in a two-legged playoff against Morocco where a 1-goal win for each country turned a two-legged tie into a three-legged tie. Morocco won game three. In 1974 Senegal ran into Morocco again, and again, the lions fell.
Senegal wouldn’t progress past the first round of qualification until the format changed in 1994. After winning their group in round one, they were drawn with Zambia and… Morocco. Morocco finished first to qualify. Senegal finished last. In 1998 they went back to falling at the first hurdle, losing a two-legged playoff to Togo. They returned to the second round in 2002, via a narrow win against Benin, only to be grouped with CAF heavy weights Algeria, Egypt, and… Morocco. To qualify for the World Cup Finals, the Lions of Teranga would need to win their group. And so they did. With a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, Senegal finished with 15 points, scraping by their long-time tormentors on goal-difference. The rest is history.
Alas, 2002 was a flash. Senegal failed to qualify for the next three tournaments, only returning to the Coupe du Monde in 2018, on the crest of a golden generation headlined by Sadio Mane. In Russia, they would miss out by the slimmest of margins, becoming the first team to be eliminated from the group stage on yellow card accumulation. In 2019, the lions reached their first AFCON final, only to lose on penalties. In the 2021 AFCON, Senegal faced another finals shootout. This time they won; Sadio Mane scored the winning kick. Senegal won another shoot-out to qualify for Qatar, making consecutive world cups for the first time in their history. Sadio Mane, once again, scored the winning kick.
And so enters the African champion, on the wings of a generation more talented than any that came before, carrying the weight of a continent.
Will they rise? Or will they crumble?
Expected Finish: 3rd
Why?
Senegal have talent, experience, and a favorable group. What they don’t have, is results. A win against Poland in 2018 has largely buoyed their FIFA ranking, but when we turn to the more reactive measure of Elo, we see they’ve dropped to 43rd. Yes Senegal are the champions of Africa, but only two African champions have ever progressed from the group-stage.
If we look at how Senegal became the champions of Africa, the Lions of Teranga don’t look so good. In a group with Malawi(140th), Zimbabwe(130th), and Guinea(110th), Senegal’s only goal was a 97th minute penalty. For reference, let’s take a look at Canada(29), a team that finished first in qualification from a region where winning continentally actually translates abroad. When Canada faced comparably ranked Suriname(127th), they won by four. When Suriname faced lower ranked Bermuda(160th), they won by six. Bermuda’s ranking may undersell them. Nakhi Wells is probably a better player than anyone on Malawi or Zimbabwe.
Egypt(53rd) is the best team Senegal have faced in a meaningful match over the last two years. In three games against this colossus, Senegal won(1-0), tied(0-0), and lost(1-0). If this was a three-legged tie, it would have gone to penalties. Of course, there aren’t shoot-outs in the group stage. If Senegal can’t score, they will not win.
To make matters worse, Sadio Mane is injured. For a team that barely scores with one of the best attackers on the planet, missing Mane may prove difficult.
Even without Mane, Senegal are still, theoretically, good enough. But as many-a African side can attest, theory doesn’t get you out of the groups.
Why not?
Senegal have talent, experience, and a favorable group. The Lions of Teranga rank top 16 in both TMV and WCDCS. This is also effectively the same team that played in the last World Cup, the last two AFCON’s, and the last two World Cup qualifying cycles.
Even without Mane, Senegal has a number of players at the best clubs of Europe. They should be as ready for this stage as anyone. Mane also isn’t entirely ruled out for the tournament.
Senegal has the pieces to succeed. But the puzzle hasn’t quite come together.
Key Players
Formerly named the best defender in Italy, and a 4-time participant on the Serie A team of the year, Kalidou Koulibaly is the centerpiece for one of the world cup’s more resolute defenses. With a rare combination of strength, agility, and skill, the Chelsea center-back is obviously very good. What may not be so obvious is Koulibaly’s value in attack. Senegal’s offense is largely based on playing long passes to runners. A big reason why Senegal are so hard to score on is that the lions often avoid throwing up numbers when they attack. This means that most of Senegal’s ball-progression stems from accurate deep-lying passes. Senegal’s best deep-lying passer is… Kalidou Koulibaly. Koulibaly will need to perform for both Senegal’s defense and offense to click.
Sadio Mane is a world-class attacker. One of the key pieces for a historically great Liverpool side, Mane’s injury is a big blow. While the floor won’t necessarily fall out, Mane’s health will determine Senegal’s ceiling. Assuming it all comes together, the lions have enough to survive their group without Mane. Anything else is a big ask. If Senegal is to break through and become the first African representative in a World Cup semi-final, they’ll probably need Mane to make a quick return.
Ecuador | Elo: 44 | FIFA: 18 |
History: On May 30th, 1925, the Federación Deportiva Nacional del Ecuador, was founded. Shortly after, La Tricolor were granted an automatic invitation to the first World Cup. Ecuador declined. On June 2nd, 2002, La Tri got their first taste of World Cup football, more than 70 years later, in a 2-0 loss to Italy.
Drinking from the well seems to have made La Tri greedy. 2022 will mark their 4th successful qualification in 6 attempts. Considering they play the world’s most difficult qualifiers, it’s a remarkable accomplishment.
More remarkable is the fact they’ve won, at least once, at each finals they’ve participated in. In 2002, they won twice, progressing to the round of 16 with emphatic victories over Costa Rica and Poland. England ended their run in the knockouts, but the tournament was indisputably a success.
Ecuador’s journey to the finals was arduous. 62 marked La Tri’s maiden campaign. Put in a home and home playoff against Argentina, Ecuador were lost by a combined scoreline of 11-3 after a trashing in Guayaquil, and a massacre at Buenos Aires. 66 went significantly better. With two wins against Colombia, Ecuador finished level on points with Chile. A one-off playoff on neutral ground would decide qualification. Ecuador lost 2-1. They wouldn’t win another qualifier until 1982 picking up a paltry 4 points from 12 matches. 98 marked the first time they’d strung together 2 wins in a single campaign as they finished only 4 points off the last qualification spot. That qualification spot was occupied by… Chile. 94 was particularly pathetic. Coming off a best ever 4th place finish in the 93 Copa America, Ecuador won one of 8 qualifiers.
2002 went differently. Having won 11 times in their first 55 qualification matches, La Tri won 9 of 18 to finish 2nd and cruise to their first finals. Their path to Qatar was similar with Ecuador winning 7 of their first 14 to help book an early ticket to Doha.
With the 4th youngest team in the tournament, a cadre of promising prospects, and a general sense that La Tri-color are more than the sum of their parts, there is plenty to be excited about…
…but is there enough to win?
Expected Finish: 4th
Why?
Ecuador’s track record in qualification is impressive, particularly at home where they won 5 times while losing only once. What they’ve managed away from home is more concerning. In qualification they only managed 2 wins away from La Casa Blanca. Both came against teams that failed to reach the World Cup. They haven’t fared much better on neutral ground, picking up no wins in 5 matches at the most recent Copa America.
While Ecuador has historically been characterized as a team that plays fun, attacking soccer, their current iteration is slower and more defensive-minded. It worked well enough at home, but will it translate here against a slate of teams that specialize in transition?
While there are promising youngsters, La Tri has a deficit in actualized talent, ranking among the bottom half of participants TMV and WCDCS. Have favorable conditions at home papered over the cracks? Ecuador may just not be that good; and unlike Qatar, they can’t count on experience, familiarity, or the comforts of home carrying them through.
Facing a host, and two teams with considerably better players, La Tricolor might be out of their depth.
Why not?
Ecuador ranks 18th in Elo, reflecting that they have had, by a margin, the second best form in the group. They didn’t play the best possible lineups in the Copa America and doing badly away is a world-wide phenomenon.
They are strong on set-pieces, have gotten several competitive results against some of the best teams in the world, and have a cadre of promising youth ready to outlast older opposition in what will be one of the hottest world cups on record.
South American teams usually advance, Irregardless of how they qualify. Ecuador have held their own against the best teams in the most difficult conditions.
This wouldn’t be the first time someone dismissed Ecuador as a team that can only win at home. They were wrong then. Maybe I’m wrong now.
Group A is one of those rare World Cup groups where you can make a strong case for all four teams advancing. I don’t think they will, but I’d love to see Ecuador prove me wrong.
Key Players
The star man on a Brighton side that has wildly overperformed expectations, Moises Caicedo is Ecuador’s best player. A do-it-all midfielder who can create, progress, and defend at a high level, Ecuador will need Moises at his best to advance.
Piero Hincapie is one of the better defenders in the Bundesliga. Strong on the ball, and excellent positionally, Hincapie is the anchor of La Tri’s defense. On a team that can struggle for goals, Hincapie will be vital for keeping the other team off the score-sheet.
Predicted Group Standings
|
1 |
Netherlands |
|
2 |
Qatar |
|
3 |
Senegal |
|
4 |
Ecuador |
For more info on the methodology click here.
Group Previews:
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Mauricio Cuevas Taking “Huge Step Forward” in Liga MX
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Way-too-early USMNT 2030 FIFA World Cup roster projection
World Cup roster projections are a futile business.
That’s particularly true when you do it a whole four years out.
Yet, every four years, we do it anyway. The United States crashed out of their one-in-a-generation home World Cup this week after a 4-1 demolition by Belgium in Seattle, deferring their dreams of a first star for at least another cycle. Now it’s time to take a first-ever stab at who the players on that 2030 team will be.
Of course, this is more of an educated guess than a clear-cut prediction. A lot can happen in four years (see: Alex Freeman and Sebastian Berhalter or Yunus Musah and Josh Sargent). With that being said, here’s my current projected 26-man squad for the next World Cup, which will be held in Spain, Portugal, and Morocco.
Goalkeepers
1. Chris Brady (Current Club: Chicago Fire; Age in 2030: 26)
The crop of goalkeepers that the U.S. brought to the 2022 and 2026 World Cups is the weakest pool in decades. Fortunately, there are a few high-end prospects who will be old enough by 2030 to hopefully make progress on that front. One of those prospects – Chris Brady – was the third-string at this past World Cup (the youngest goalie the U.S. has brought to a World Cup since Tony Meola and Kasey Keller in 1990) and will be just beginning to enter his prime for the next one.
In terms of skill set, Brady has all the tools to be a world-class #1. His shot-stopping and reaction time are excellent; he possesses great size and reach, and has made progress on his ball-playing ability over the last three seasons in MLS. While his decision-making does leave something to be desired – meaning he isn’t quite ready yet to play regularly at the international level – it is an asset that will hopefully improve with time and experience and is completely normal for such a young goalkeeper. A move to a major European league should happen in the next few years, and he’s probably the current favorite to be the starter in 2030.
2. Diego Kochen (Lyngby Boldklub, on loan from FC Barcelona; 24)
In terms of talent, the other potential huge star is Barcelona’s Diego Kochen, who just joined Danish club Lyngby on loan in search of more minutes. Kochen was originally set to join the 2026 squad as a training player, but the need for a minor surgery meant he only stuck around for the pre-tournament friendlies. That’s been the story of his career so far: high hopes, but often paused by injuries or other setbacks. If that can be resolved, Kochen absolutely has a shot of competing with Brady, and those two seem like the best options to be the future of the U.S. goalkeeping position. If not, other talents like Julian Eyestone, Andrew Rick, or even still-quite-young Gaga Slonina could emerge to break into that picture.
3. Matt Turner (New England Revolution; 36)
With the hope being that two young goalkeepers will take over the position, it would be fair to guess that the third-string in four years will be a veteran. Matt Freese was the starter in 2026, but was clearly a weak link, and has had numerous blunders for the USMNT since his debut 13 months ago; he’ll absolutely stick around in the national team picture for at least a few more years, and still be 31 in 2030, but at this point I don’t know that he increases either the floor or the ceiling. For that reason, Matt Turner is my veteran pick for 2030, assuming he maintains his level in MLS with the Revolution; he will be 36, but would be a calm presence in the locker room with two prior World Cups under his belt, and fits the mold of a #3 keeper at that age.
Potential pool players: Matt Freese, Julian Eyestone, Andrew Rick, Gaga Slonina, Leonard Prescott
Center backs
1. Chris Richards (Crystal Palace; 30)
After playing every minute in four of the Americans’ five games in 2026, Richards is the bright spot in what has otherwise been a pretty poor generation of U.S. central defenders. Seeing as defenders typically peak between the ages of 28 and 31, the next World Cup could be his to be a true team leader in. In fact, as long as he stays healthy and continues to progress and mature in the Premier League, Richards currently seems like the safest bet for U.S. captain in 2030.
2. Noahkai Banks (FC Augsburg; 23)
This is where things get interesting. Tim Ream (who will be 42 at the next World Cup) defied all the odds to somehow still be a starter for the U.S. in 2026. Barring a medical and logical miracle, that means there are a lot of center back minutes up for grabs this cycle, and fortunately, the U.S. 2006-2008 age cohort possesses the most exciting group of blue-chip center back prospects the country has ever seen.
Chief among them is German-American Noahkai Banks, who featured 23 times for Augsburg in the Bundesliga last season and is arguably a top-10 center back prospect globally. The only problem is that he declined a March USMNT senior call-up to keep his dual-national eligibility intact. That doesn’t rule him out of representing the U.S. in the future, and the likes of Nico Schlotterbeck, Malick Thiaw, Finn Jeltsch, and €50 million Chelsea target Karim Coulibaly mean the pathway to Germany minutes is unclear. If Banks eventually decides to represent the U.S., he’ll be among the clear favorites to start from the get-go.
3. Christopher Cupps (Chicago Fire; 22)
This was one of the most challenging choices to make on the entire list. That aforementioned 2006-2008 age bracket has several center backs who could break into the national team picture in the next two years, and join Banks as a rare second young center back on a World Cup roster (though it would be far from a surprise, whether Banks commits to the U.S. or not, if multiple defenders from the 2006-2008 crop make the team).
Sporting Kansas City’s Ian James, the Philadelphia Union’s Neil Pierre, and Werder Bremen II’s Ramiz Hamouda are the three others I strongly considered, and any one of those could certainly explode in the near future. However, I find that Christopher Cupps, currently featuring for Chicago Fire II, has the highest ceiling of the bunch. Still just 18, Cupps has all the physical tools needed for an elite-level center back and has a top-level mindset that has enabled him to steadily develop his other skills. He has also shown those capabilities in a U.S. shirt, starring at the last U-17 World Cup and captaining practically every youth team he’s ever played on at every age group. While he has faced injury setbacks in the last year or so, if Cupps stays healthy and continues to develop to his full potential, he will be on the national team by 2030.
4. Auston Trusty (Celtic; 31)
I’ll be the first to admit that I was not an Auston Trusty advocate for a very, very long time. The last six months have changed my mind. In seeking a prime-age, left-footed center back to consider for 2030, Trusty currently seems like the best option, and is already someone who entered the USMNT history books when he scored the second-fastest goal in U.S. World Cup history last month. If he stays roughly level with the likes of Mark McKenzie, Miles Robinson, and Cameron Carter-Vickers, Trusty’s left-footedness will give him a clear edge.
Potential pool players: Mark McKenzie, Ian James, Neil Pierre, Ramiz Hamouda, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Josh Wynder
Full backs
1. Alex Freeman (Villarreal; 25)
Alex Freeman’s ascent from MLS Next Pro to USMNT World Cup star in the last 18 months has been something special. Now, he looks like a clear lock for the next edition as well and is currently on a trajectory to become a top La Liga right back within the next two seasons. Unless injuries crop up or his form completely stalls, Freeman will be a mainstay for the USMNT for years to come.
2. Peyton Miller (New England Revolution; 22)
Addressing the elephant in the room: Antonee Robinson is not on this list. While he has been a locked-in starter for the U.S. for six years, was at one point among the best in his position in the Premier League, and is arguably the country’s greatest-ever left back, the now 28-year-old has battled a truly painful run of injuries over the last few years. Robinson himself admitted it was a minor miracle that he was healthy enough to play in the 2026 World Cup, so given his injury history and the fact that he’ll be nearly 33 when 2030 kicks off, I decided to leave him out.
In terms of prospects, there are a few, and Peyton Miller is the most obvious, even if he’s spent much of his youth national team career playing as a winger. The 18-year-old from Connecticut heavily featured at the 2023 U-17 World Cup and 2025 U-20 World Cup, playing up age groups both times, and is a regular for a good team in MLS with European interest certain. If he develops, and particularly if the U.S. sticks with a wingback-reliant formation, I could see Miller emerging as a Robinson successor.
3. Luca Bombino (San Diego FC; 23)
A more traditional left-sided fullback for the future would be Luca Bombino of San Diego, who has developed well over the last year and a half and is now one of the best young left backs in MLS. The question now is whether he can take another big step in his development to fill the much-needed national team profile of lockdown left-back, and, if he can, eventually make the move to Europe. Christian McFarlane, Reed Baker-Whiting, and the still-talented but injury-riddled Caleb Wiley are other names who could make a push on the left side.
4. Sergiño Dest (PSV Eindhoven; 29)
It feels like just yesterday that Sergiño Dest was the skillful, adventurous young wingback at Ajax; it’s bizarre to even think about the fact that he’ll be 29 at the next World Cup. Dest has not reached the heights many hoped he would as a teenager; even if he has finally found a permanent home at the club level, it’s not at a European giant in a top five league. If (and this is a big if) he stays healthy, Dest should still make the 2030 roster, but he’ll certainly have to adapt his game as he inches toward the latter half of his prime.
5. Tim Weah (Olympique Marseille; 30)
Tim Weah is another one whose status as a clear roster lock will likely fade in the next cycle as younger players begin to emerge. The OM winger hardly played in this past World Cup and was, somewhat alarmingly, an unused substitute in both of the U.S.’s knockout games. Still, by 2030, his versatility and experience may make him a valuable option to keep around in a position group that could be very young for the U.S. in four years.
One more name I’d like to throw in there is Montrell Culbreath of Bayer 04 Leverkusen. If he commits to the United States over Germany, he is a wild-card right wing back option that almost certainly would walk straight into any U.S. roster overnight and if he continues his current ascent, could be an option to start in 2030.
Potential pool players: Montrell Culbreath, Frankie Westfield, Joe Scally, Reed Baker-Whiting, Christian McFarlane, Caleb Wiley
Central midfield
1. Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls; 21)
The fact that only three true central midfielders went to the World Cup with the U.S. in 2026 indicates that it’s a position completely up for grabs in the next cycle. Enter Adri Mehmeti, who is one of the absolute most exciting U.S. prospects at the moment. The Albanian-American broke through into the New York Red Bulls first team at 16 this season and played the full 90 minutes in seven consecutive MLS games heading into the World Cup break. Learning under USMNT legend Michael Bradley, Mehmeti seems poised to be a Tyler Adams successor of sorts for club and country, and if he continues to progress at his current pace, could have his coming-out party at the 2030 World Cup.
2. Tyler Adams (AFC Bournemouth; 31)
Adams will still be around in four years and has been one of the USMNT’s most consistent players through his entire national team career. However, like Antonee Robinson, persistent injuries are taking a toll, and there’s no certainty he’ll be at as high a level as he once was come 2030. Nonetheless, unless his level drops too much, expect Adams to remain firmly entrenched as a veteran leader – and, by now, one of the U.S.’ greatest-ever midfielders – on the team at age 31.
3. Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps; 29)
One of the most surprising stories of the last cycle was the emergence of Sebastian Berhalter, who, within two years, went from a fringe MLS starter to arguably the league’s best midfielder. An impressive showing in the World Cup, which saw him make four strong substitute appearances and score in his lone start, means his stock is higher than ever, and even at 25, a move to Europe seems like a distinct possibility. If he maintains that level throughout what are expected to be his prime years, Berhalter could be able to maintain his status as a national team squad player for 2030.
4. Jude Terry (Los Angeles FC; 21)
I’m taking a bit of a punt here by including LAFC’s Jude Terry as one of the final players to make the roster. He’s one of eight players on this list who will be 22 or younger in 2030, which is a lot compared to the two that made the 2026 roster (Brady and Freeman), but he’s a composed and tenacious profile that I quite like and stands out among the rather deep pool of talented young midfielders who could break into the pool for 2030… provided that LAFC enables him to find the right pathway. Niko Tsakiris, Brooklyn Raines, Pedro Soma, Matthew Corcoran, Taha Habroune, Benjamín Cremaschi, and even Sergio Oregel are among the names that have the talent to push for a spot, though the currently 17-year-old Terry is my favorite of the bunch.
Notably, I decided not to include any of the prime-age midfielders who failed to make the 2026 roster; Tanner Tessmann, Jack McGlynn, Aidan Morris, and Paxten Aaronson are the first to come to mind; seeing as I’ve retained all of the U.S. midfielders in this roster (barring Cristian Roldan, who will be 35), none of that group raise the floor of the team significantly if at all. I also left off Johnny Cardoso, despite clearly being a leading U.S. talent at the club level – he will be 28 and certainly in with a shout, but unless the next USMNT manager (whether it is Pochettino or someone else) can truly unlock his maximum level, his consistently poor performances at the international level may prevent him from making a World Cup roster. Similarly, Yunus Musah needs a revival at both the club and international levels if he wants to re-enter the picture.
Potential pool players: Johnny Cardoso, Niko Tsakiris, Yunus Musah, Aidan Morris, Brooklyn Raines, Jack McGlynn, Taha Habroune, Benjamín Cremaschi, Tanner Tessmann
Attacking midfield
1. Cavan Sullivan (Philadelphia Union, joining Manchester City; 20)
Something will have gone wrong for Cavan Sullivan if he isn’t a 20-year-old rising star on the USMNT’s World Cup roster four years from now. The Philadelphia Union’s biggest prospect, who has already agreed to join Manchester City in 2028 after he turns 18, has all the potential in the world and is already getting regular MLS minutes at the age of 16. Marketed as America’s greatest hope in many years, and one of the highest-rated teenage talents in U.S. history, 2030 could be a special opportunity for Sullivan to introduce himself to the wider U.S. public and footballing world.
Sullivan is the youngest player in this projected roster, though not the youngest mentioned; the Chicago Fire’s Robert Turdean, who is about three months younger than Sullivan and widely considered the second- or third-biggest prospect in that age bracket, is also one to keep an eye on. While a lot can happen in four years, 2030 may come too soon for him.
2. Malik Tillman (Bayer 04 Leverkusen; 28)
A pleasant surprise from the USMNT’s 2026 World Cup run was the fact that Malik Tillman – operating as a deep-lying playmaker next to Tyler Adams – was arguably the team’s top performer, despite playing the entire tournament outside of his natural position. He’s one of the biggest raw talents in the entire U.S. pool, so again, unless his form falls off of a cliff, he’ll be back in 2030 and should be in his prime. After a rough start to his international career, the FC Bayern product has finally found a rhythm and is now, quite incredibly, the United States’ joint-all-time leader in World Cup knockout goals.
3. Weston McKennie (Juventus; 31)
After a career year with Juventus in 2025/26 and a very solid World Cup performance, Weston McKennie has solidified himself not just as the consensus #2 USMNT player of his generation, but arguably as one of the greatest ever. If he continues playing at a high level, there’s no reason he won’t still be playing for the national team in 2030, even if he’s on the opposite side of his prime by then. It’s impossible to know what his position will be by then – he’s played a completely different role at each of the last three major tournaments – but it’s almost certain he’ll be involved in some capacity.
Potential pool players: Máximo Carrizo, Robert Turdean, Paxten Aaronson, Brenden Aaronson, Marvin Dills
Wingers
1. Christian Pulisic (AC Milan; 31)
There’s no need for reactionary post-2026 World Cup takes here: regardless of where in the world he’s playing, a healthy Christian Pulisic will almost certainly make the 2030 World Cup roster. At 27, there is a decent chance that the best and most consistent version of Pulisic is already behind us, and that is certainly a difficult pill to swallow. However, he still has plenty to give at both the club and international levels, and 2030 could be a great redemption opportunity for him in what will more than likely be his final World Cup.
2. Mathis Albert (Borussia Dortmund; 21)
From someone who broke through at Borussia Dortmund ten years ago to one who will break through there this year. Mathis Albert is one of the top U.S. prospects at the moment, and after debuting for BVB at the end of last season, he seems to be on the right trajectory toward being a future star. Additionally, the winger already has an impressive U-17 World Cup under his belt, shining at last fall’s edition despite playing up an age group; he’s eligible to return again for this year’s edition.
3. Zavier Gozo (Real Salt Lake; 23)
It’s clear that beyond Pulisic, winger is a position of desperate need for the U.S., which opens the door to lots of exciting young stars. As one of the final cuts from the 2026 roster despite still being uncapped, Zavier Gozo is clearly one of them. Gozo is one of MLS’ leading young talents right now and just made the league’s All-Star team as a 19-year-old; he also had a great U-20 World Cup last fall playing up two years. If he picks up his momentum from where he left off in the first half of the MLS season, the RSL homegrown will quickly break into the USMNT roster this fall, and should soon earn a move to a club in Europe’s top five leagues.
4. Gio Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach; 29)
Maybe a hopeful inclusion given his club form, but Reyna is undoubtedly the top U.S. talent in the early-2000s generation. He hasn’t been able to put it together regularly at the club level for years, but when he’s worn the national team uniform, he has consistently performed, and that earned him the trust of Mauricio Pochettino at the end of this past cycle. If Reyna can stay healthy and put the pieces together, I can see him making a third consecutive World Cup roster, likely once again as a wild card option from the bench. With that being said, he may need to take one step backward this summer to take two steps forward for the rest of the cycle.
An intentional omission here was Diego Luna, who has made many similar 2030 projections in recent days. While the 18-time U.S. international will probably get some call-ups in the coming months, he hasn’t done anything in a USMNT shirt anytime recently to suggest he has earned a return to the team. As a low-ceiling option whose only signature moments for the U.S. came in a January friendly and against Guatemala, there isn’t much point in persisting with Luna over younger, more exciting talents… like his club teammate Gozo.
Potential pool players: Cole Campbell, Nimfasha Berchimas, Quinn Sullivan, Kevin Paredes, Álex Zendejas
Center forwards
1. Folarin Balogun (AS Monaco; 28)
It’s been quite some time since the USMNT striker debate was this clear. The version of Folarin Balogun that showed up at the 2026 World Cup is arguably the best by an American striker in 96 years, and ridiculous red card controversy aside, he was one of the stories of the tournament for the U.S. team, scoring three times. As long as he keeps things rolling and continues scoring for club and country at the rate he is right now, Balogun will undoubtedly start for the U.S. once again in 2030 and at 28, he should be at the peak of his powers.
2. Julian Hall (New York Red Bulls; 22)
Another teenage MLS All-Star who seems poised for big things. Julian Hall exploded to start the 2026 season, playing so well that he was being talked about as a potential wild card option for this year’s World Cup. While that obviously didn’t happen, the 18-year-old – who notched his first senior hat trick against the Columbus Crew in May – is now someone firmly entrenched in the national team conversation and could break through as soon as this fall for friendly matches. The expectation would be that he will be in Europe within two to three years, and if that goes well, there’s likely no question he’ll be at the World Cup… as long as he doesn’t choose to represent Poland instead.
3. Malik Jakupović (Philadelphia Union; 21)
This is perhaps my boldest pick on the list, so I suppose I’m saving the best for last. Malik Jakupović is only 16 right now, but already stands at 6’3” (1.93m) and has an intriguing profile for a future off-the-bench USMNT attacking option. In addition to an excellent aerial ability, the Union striker presses very well and is rightfully getting minutes for an admittedly terrible Eastern Conference team. It is worth mentioning that Jakupović is also eligible for Bosnia & Herzegovina; U.S. Soccer will have to manage the situation well to avoid another Esmir Bajraktarević saga.
Unfortunately, the inclusion of Jakupović takes Ricardo Pepi out of the equation, which is one of the harshest decisions I had to make here. Despite being one of the top USMNT goal scorers under Gregg Berhalter, Pepi has struggled mightily since Mauricio Pochettino took over and has not scored for the U.S. in two years. Despite that, if he continues playing well at the club level, the El Paso native should be just fine.
CF: Ricardo Pepi, Damion Downs, Patrick Agyemang, Josh Sargent, Marcos Zambrano, Alexander Staff
Final Thoughts
In the impossible exercise that is future roster projection, I feel pretty good about this one. It includes 14 players from the current 2026 roster, which is just one more than the number that carried over from 2022 to 2026. The team’s average age is just over 26, making it slightly younger than the 2026 roster – aided by the absence of a nearly 39-year-old – but still older than the notably young 2022 team.
The more revealing detail, though, is the shape of the roster. Only three players on this list – Alex Freeman, Chris Brady, and Diego Kochen – would be between 24 and 27 years old in 2030, the age range that should theoretically be entering its prime. That reflects one of the defining developments of the last cycle, which is that many of the top prospects from the 2003 to 2006 age groups simply did not break through at the level once expected. It also doesn’t help that the two best American-born 2005s, Esmir Bajraktarević and Obed Vargas, now represent other national teams.
Four years ago, in my way-too-early projection for the 2026 roster, I correctly predicted 14 of 26 players. My biggest mistake was backing several prospects from those 2003-2006 age groups to emerge, only for late bloomers like Sebastian Berhalter, Max Arfsten, and Álex Zendejas to make the roster instead of players who were then part of the U.S. U-20 and U-17 pools.
The optimism here is less about the middle of the player pool and more about the next wave, particularly the 2007 to 2009 cohorts. Not all of those players will pan out, but there are enough high-end talents in those age groups to believe that several fresh faces will force their way into the USMNT picture before 2030.
The other notable thread is continuity from the last two tournaments. Seven players on this roster – Tyler Adams, Sergiño Dest, Weston McKennie, Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, Matt Turner, and Tim Weah – would be making a third World Cup roster. That group has defined this era of the USMNT, and if they are at the end of or past their prime four years from now, they would form the veteran spine around which the next generation is built – something that generation simply did not have to lean on in 2022.
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