Grouped or Glory:  Intro

The wait is nearly over. On November 20th, 2022, 4 years – and change – from a French triumph at Moscow, sport’s grandest stage returns. 32 performers – chosen from 205 entrants via arduous, multi-year, qualification tournaments – will enter Qatar, a venue enveloped in controversy, to grasp for glory before billions.

But before there is glory, there is the group stage. In its current format, first utilized in France at the 1998 edition – France’s first triumph at the Copa Mundial – the world cup opens with its 32 participants sorted into 8 groups of 4. In each group, 2 survive, and 2, do not.

With the groups set – at a ceremony watched by 1.6 million – a comprehensive look at the 32 contestants is overdue. We will chart each national team’s history, their journey to Qatar, their strengths, weaknesses, and anything else that might help us determine who is destined for glory, and who is set to get grouped.

Key Factors

Performance denotes how a national team has recently performed. For a loose estimation of “how good they have been”, we’ll use two metrics, FIFA Rankings, and Elo Ratings.

FIFA Rankings rank teams based on results. Teams get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. These points are then multiplied or divided based on various factors including recency, the type of competition the game took place in, and how good the opposing team is. FIFA Rankings are, relative to Elo Ratings, less reactive. They account for less factors, weigh competition type  less, and don’t penalize knockout losses. This means they approximate longer stretches of “performance” than…

Elo Ratings are largely the basis for the current formula used for FIFA Rankings. They are similar to FIFA Rankings but have a few key differences. They factor in goal-difference – the margin of victory – when taking or giving points, weigh competition type more, and penalize teams for knockout losses. This makes them more reactive,  meaning they approximate shorter stretches of “performance”.

Talent denotes how good the individual players on a national team are. For a loose estimation of “how good is this team on paper”, we’ll use two metrics, Transfermarkt Valuations(TMV), and – courtesy of redditor u/bl4klotus – World Cup Depth Chart Scores(WCDCS).

Transfermarkt Valuations are crowd-sourced estimates of player value. Valuations are derived from discussion and consensus as opposed to a formula. While subjective, they are taken seriously by those in the professional business of soccer. We’ll use the average TMV of each national team’s World Cup roster. As all players on a world cup roster influence the average, this ranking will skew towards depth.

World Cup Depth Chart Scores are averages based on my World Cup Positional Depth Chart, which guesses the most talented possible assortment of players that could start for each national team and then sorts everyone from that theoretical lineup into one of 5 tiers. As this average is only influenced by the best 11, it will skew towards stars.

Various other points will be considered, but these measures provide a baseline we can work off. Here’s how all 32 teams compare via these metrics:

      

Performance of World Cup Teams                          Talent of World Cup Teams                                               

No	FIFA	Rank	Elo	Rank	No	TMV	Rank	WCDCS	Rank
1	Brazil	1	Brazil	1	1	England	1	Brazil	T-1
2	Belgium	2	Argentina	2	2	Brazil	2	Spain	T-1
3	Argentina	3	Spain	3	3	France	3	France	3
4	France	4	Netherlands	4	4	Portugal	4	Germany	4
5	England	5	Belgium	5	5	Germany	5	Portugal	5
6	Spain	7	France	6	6	Spain	6	England	6
7	Netherlands	8	Portugal	7	7	Argentina	7	Belgium	7
8	Portugal	9	Denmark	9	8	Netherlands	8	Argentina	8
9	Denmark	10	Germany	10	9	Belgium	9	Netherlands	9
10	Germany	11	Uruguay	11	10	Uruguay	10	Croatia	10
11	Croatia	12	Switzerland	12	11	Croatia	11	Switzerland	11
12	Mexico	13	Croatia	13	12	Serbia	12	Uruguay	12
13	Uruguay	14	England	14	13	Denmark	13	Denmark	13
14	Switzerland	15	Serbia	16	14	Senegal	14	Senegal	14
15	United States	16	Ecuador	18	15	Switzerland	15	United States	15
16	Senegal	18	Iran	21	16	United States	16	Serbia	16
17	Wales	19	Mexico	22	17	Poland	17	Poland	17
18	Iran	20	Poland	23	18	Morocco	18	Mexico	18
19	Serbia	21	United States	T-24	19	Ghana	19	Japan	19
20	Morocco	22	Japan	T-24	20	Canada	20	Morocco	20
21	Japan	24	Wales	26	21	Mexico	21	South Korea	T-21
22	Poland	26	South Korea	28	22	South Korea	22	Ghana	T-21
23	South Korea	28	Canada	29	23	Wales	23	Wales	T-23
24	Tunisia	30	Morocco	32	24	Cameroon	24	Ecuador	T-23
25	Costa Rica	31	Costa Rica	35	25	Japan	25	Canada	T-25
26	Australia	38	Australia	39	26	Tunisia	26	Cameroon	T-25
27	Canada	41	Tunisia	T-43	27	Iran	27	Costa Rica	27
28	Cameroon	43	Senegal	T-43	28	Ecuador	28	Saudi Arabia	28
29	Ecuador	44	Qatar	49	29	Australia	29	Iran	29
30	Qatar	50	Saudi Arabia	54	30	Saudi Arabia	30	Tunisia	30
31	Saudi Arabia	51	Cameroon	61	31	Costa Rica	31	Australia	31
32	Ghana	61	Ghana	74	32	Qatar	32	Qatar	32

Let’s begin.

Previews for each of the 8 groups will be released over the next week. We’ll start with Group A, and end with Group H. 

Group Previews: