USMNT
GROUPED OR GLORY: GROUP B
England | Elo: 14 | FIFA: 5 |
History: And now we pay homage to the home of soccer. While a similar sport found popularity in Ancient China, the “Association football” we know and love originated as one of many types of “football” played by school-children in public schools across England. A comprehensive set of laws regarding “assoccer” – shorthand for “association”, longhand for “soccer” – were codified with the formation of the Football Association(FA) in 1863. While the name didn’t stick, in England anyway, that set of laws – simply referred to as The Laws of the Game – still largely define the football that’s played today.The English National team was formed soon after, becoming, alongside Scotland, the oldest national team in the world.
In 1870, a team of Englishmen played a Scottish team largely consisting of london-born Scots to a 0-0 draw in the world’s first unofficial international friendly. The world’s first official friendly was the return tie held in 1872; England won.
For the next 40 years England would exclusively play Scotland, Ireland, and Wales in the British Home Championship, an annual tournament between the four national teams in the United Kingdom. The Three Lions finished second to Scotland in the tournament’s first four iterations. After trading gold with the Scots in 1888 and 1889, England managed their own 4-peat between 90 and 93.
The Brits ventured beyond the isles in 1908, beating Austria, Hungary, and Bohemia. England wouldn’t experience defeat outside their island until 1929 with a 3-2 loss to Spain. A year before, the FA withdrew from FIFA after feuding over amateurs, meaning England wouldn’t participate in the first three World Cups. They would participate in the Battle of Highbury, defeating Italy – the defending Jules Rimet holders – 3-2 in a match with more than soccer at stake. England beat facism again In 1938… after being forced to appease Hitler.
In the aftermath of the second World War, the FA made up with FIFA and England qualified for the 1950 World Cup via a top 2 finish in the 49-50 Home Championship. Coming off two wins against facism in the 30’s, the Brits punctuated the 40’s with empathic victories over Italy – still champs – and Portugal, entering the 1950 Copa de Mundial as overwhelming favorites. Sure, they were technically debutants, but for most of the sport’s history, as of 1950, the Home Nations, particularly England and Scotland, had been in a league of their own. England just couldn’t lose. And yet they did. Twice. The write-in champs bowed out in round one. And thus the dye was cast. Football did come home in 66, but the wait for its return has been long, and often painful.
Enter Southgate. On the back of another golden generation highlighted by a number of world class footballers, The Three Lions have reached nigh-unprecedented highs. In 2018, England came within 30 minutes of the World Cup Final. In 2021, they reached the final of the European Championship. Can Southgate’s men build off these near-misses with a triumph in Lusail? Or will that hope kill?
Once more The Three Lions enter the colosseum. Once more, England expects. But will the lions roar.. or whimper? The world will soon see.
Expected Finish: 1st
Why?
Ranking 1st per TMV, and 6th per WCDCS, England have a claim as the most talented team on the planet. And while the Lions have plenty of questions, their three groupmates, all substantially less talented and vastly less accomplished, enter with questions of their own.
The nations league went badly, but most of these games weren’t played with a full-strength side.
With a group of elite players, who’ve thrived in multiple major tournaments, entering their prime, the Lions are hard to pick against; at least in round one.
Why not?
They ended the recent Nations league with a loss and a dead-rubber draw. Both featured what could be characterized as England’s “a team”. Before the dead-rubber, England scored once in 5. Harry Kane started all but one of those matches.
While Southgate has been superficially successful, a closer look at his work reveals that favorable draws have papered over significant underperformance. Gifted a collection of creative attackers, Southgate has prioritized defensive solidity. Forcing round pegs into square holes has proven costly.
While I think they may be able to brute-talent this group, it’s unlikely they get much further.
Key Players
Besides being one of the best players on the planet, Harry Kane is obviously England’s best talisman. Kane has led the premier league in scoring thrice in the last 6 years. In the last world cup, Kane bagged 5 to nab the Golden Boot. But lost in Kane’s prowess as a scorer, is his powers as a playmaker. In 2021, Kane led the premier league in goals and assists. Harry is a phenomenal playmaker, able to create from range and tight spaces. It was Kane’s playmaking that allowed England to dominate early proceedings against the Italians last May. The Tottenham forward is the centerpiece of England’s offense, even if he doesn’t end up bagging all their goals.
Jude Bellingham might not start, but it’s obvious that he should. At 19, Jude is already a world-class playmaker and ball-progressor, as well as a strong defender, presser, and scoring threat. If there is a soccer equivalent to a 5-tool-player, Jude Bellingham might be it. On a team that has struggled mightily to create in recent outings, Southgate’s ability, and willingness, to get the best out of England’s best midfielder may well determine if this team has any hope of hoisting the Jules Rimiet.
USA | Elo: 15 | FIFA: 21 |
History: Enter The Stars and Stripes. 3rd place finishers in 1930, the only team outside of Europe and S.A to reach a major final on neutral ground, and one of two Concacaf teams to reach the quarterfinals since the World Cup expanded to a full 32, the United States Men’s National Team(USMNT) is the second most successful national team outside of Europe and South America; not a bad resume, but for the world’s preeminent superpower – for better or for worse – that feels a bit disappointing.
The USMNT is one of the world’s oldest national teams. A 1-0 loss to Canada in 1885 marked the first international friendly outside of the British Isles. They rode this head-start to modest success, finishing 3rd at the Maiden World Cup in 1930, beating Mexico to qualify for 1934, and pulling off, per Elo, the 7th biggest upset in the history of international soccer, thereby eliminating an English behemoth; the US still crashed out, courtesy of a Chilean trashing.
After the Second World War, the program hit a 40-year lull. In the three decades after the 50 World Cup win, the USMNT only managed a handful of victories. Despite early international success, and the creation of a relatively popular domestic league, the American public showed little interest in America’s team.
Ironically, it was the domestic league’s collapse which helped resurrect US soccer. In the absence of a professional league at home, Americans like Paul Caligari were forced to push themselves abroad; thus the US entered the 86 cycle with talent at its disposal.
With quality in its ranks, the USMNT entered the last match of the 86 qualification tournament only requiring a tie to qualify. They would lose, via an early own goal, but that near-miss, along with the commercial potential of bringing football to a populous superpower, was enough for The Yanks to be named hosts for the 94 World Cup. Given the Americans’ inability to qualify by the merit of their play, the decision sparked outrage. But a year later, the USMNT earned qualification for the 90 tournament, thanks to a long-range finish from… Paul Caligari. While they went point-less in Italy, they’d shock Colombia 4 years later to reach the second round for the first time in more than a century. The World Cup was also a massive commercial success, laying the foundation for a sustainable domestic league, and serious nation-wide investment in the sport.
Using this base, the USMNT leveled up in the next 20 years, reaching two Copa America semi-finals, usually making the World Cup round of sixteen, and almost always qualifying. Regionally they improved, splitting cups with Mexico, and winning the Hex – the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying between 1997 and 2018 – three times on the trot.
But as the 2000’s turned into the 2010’s, the program stagnated. With each step forward, there was a step back. A quarter final run in 2002 was followed by a group stage exit in 2006. A victory against invincible Spain was wasted with a comeback loss against Brazil. The Yanks won a group with England only to blow a favorable path to the semis. Donovan’s men simply didn’t have the quality to win consistently, and after Donovan’s departure, it all fell apart. Yet, amidst this mediocrity, seeds were planted for something greater.
And thus, enters the golden generation. Following a glorious summer, and an arduous spring, The Stars and Stripes enter winter with hopes sky-high.
Will 2022 mark a new beginning? Or will it teach yet another lesson in patience.
Expected Finish: 2nd
Why?
They are the second most talented team, ranking top 16 in both TMV and WCDCS. Their form is about as strong as their group mates, with a marginal advantage in FIFA, and a marginal disadvantage in Elo. They enter Qatar with their key pieces healthy and mostly in-form, and have the second youngest squad in the tourney. It’s not hard to see them outlast older competition in what looks to be one of the hottest World Cups.
Looking to history, a substantially less talented generation of Americans were usually able to find a way out. They also currently have a strong claim as the best team in CONCACAF, a mantle which usually predicts surviving round one.
There are questions, but this is true for all of their group mates. The American case isn’t overwhelming, but the counterpoints don’t seem particularly strong.
Why not?
Well for one, manager Gregg Berhalter may not have his priorities sorted. Is Gregg’s aim to win or to change the way the world views American soccer by playing a more aesthetically pleasing brand of footy? Coming off a pair of poor friendly performances in September, it’s not clear those two aims can coexist peacefully.
The US has also been disappointing away from the comforts of home. They have one competitive away victory this cycle. Including friendlies, they are winless against World Cup teams away or on neutral ground.
They are also relatively inexperienced. Yedlin is the only player on the squad who has played in a world cup and the Inter Miami full-back is unlikely to see serious minutes
The position of center-back remains a big question. The best two available center-backs, Zimmerman and Ream, have not played many minutes together. For a team that usually likes to play a high-line, Ream may not be an optimal fit. With incumbents Richard and Robinson injured, there aren’t quality options who’ve recently been integrated into the side.
The US generally seem at their best playing in transition. This might prove a problem with two group-mates who are likely to sit back and force the US to do something with the ball. Thus far, this cycle, the US have struggled with low-blocks.
And while it is true the USMNT historically have done alright at this stage, it’s not clear that was ever sustainable. 2010 is the only World Cup where the USMNT out-created most of their opponents. While this side has more outfield talent, they don’t have quality keepers like Howard or Friedel to level the playing field.
While I favor them to finish 2nd, a last-place finish wouldn’t surprise me.
Key Players
Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson has been very good in the Premier League. He’s also essential both as a ball-progressor, and chance creator for the way Berhalter likes to play. Antonee Robinson is also the only natural left-back on the USMNT’s roster. An elite 1 v 1 defender, a fast ball-progressor, and a strong crosser, Antonee Robinson’s style of play is simple, but effective. Bought for 13 Million in 2020 by AC Milan, Antonee Robinson has developed into the US’s least replaceable piece.
Brenden Aaronson is quite good. In 21-22, he played every minute for Salzburg as they became the first Austrian team to ever reach the knockout stage of the Champions League. In 22-23 he’s been the centerpiece for a Leeds side overperforming modest resources. With 1 goal and 2 assists, Aaronson may not seem a remarkable attacker, but a closer look may prove revealing. 5 of Leeds goals have come off Aaronson pressure. And while it didn’t show up in the score-sheet, not many Americans have taken out 5 defenders on the dribble. Aaronson does a fair bit on the other end, being among the league leaders in pressures completed, duels won, and ground covered. A capable creator and progressor with an unrivaled engine, Aaronson can be pretty valuable. He’s especially valuable against big teams. All three of his g/a came against Chelsea and Tottenham. His two assists were a small part of what many found impressive against Bayern, and against Liverpool, it was his pressing that led to both of Leed’s goals in a massive win against at Anfield. With a plethora of quality options in attack, Aaronson is not essential for this team to advance. But if they look to do something more, Brenden may define this team’s ceiling.
Iran | Elo: 21 | FIFA: 20 |
History: Do not sleep on Team Melli. Paired with Spain, Portugal, and Morocco in 2018, Iran were this close to advancing. Qatar will mark Iran’s 6th World Cup. The Persian Stars will be desperate to avoid a 6th group stage exit.
The Iranian Football Federation(IFF) was founded in 1920. In 1926 the IFF formed the Tehran XI, an Iranian team with players picked from various Iranian clubs. In 1941 Tehran Xi became Team Melli and beat British India 1-0. Later that year, Team Melli became Iran, playing Afghanistan to a goalless draw. In 1968, Iran hosted the Asian Cup. Their debut went perfectly, with 4 wins in 4 matches making The Honour of Persia, the Champions of Asia. In 72 they would go to Thailand, and again things went perfectly. Iran would win 5 of 5 games to win a second straight championship. Iran would host again in 76. And again, they were perfect. With 4 wins in 4, Iran completed a stretch of continental dominance that never has, and maybe never will, be replicated.
Iran’s first venture into World Cup Qualification came in 1974, at a time where only one spot was allocated for all of Asia and all of Oceania. Iran would win an all-Asian group to enter a playoff with Australia. With a 3-0 loss away, and a 2-0 win at home, Iran bowed out as Australia went on to qualify. In 78 Iran were dominant, cruising to their first World Cup with a record of 10 wins, including 2 victories over the Aussies, and 2 draws. Iran were quickly eliminated from the tournament proper with losses to the Netherlands and Peru, but they’d go home with a point from a surprise tie with Scotland. Then, came revolution.
Conflict and unrest would sideline Iranian soccer until 1989 when Team Melli returned to AFC qualification for the 1990 finals. Needing to win their group to progress The Persian Stars won 5 of 6 matches, but finished 2nd on goal-difference to China. In 1994 they went undefeated in round one to reach the final round of qualifying. With two World Cup berths up for grab, Iran finished 2 points shy of 2nd place South Korea. In 98, Iran went undefeated, again, to make the final round. There, a second place set them up for a playoff vs Japan. The winner would reach the World Cup while the loser would be sent to a final playoff. Japan found a winner in the 118th minute, sending Iran to an intercontinental playoff with… Australia. In the rematch of the 74 AFC-OFC playoff, Iran emerged victorious.
At the finals, Iran would emerge victorious again in a match that meant a little more than 3 points. Losses to Germany and Yugoslavia would eliminate Team Melli anyway, but Iran had finally won.
In 2002, Iran lost an intercontinental playoff to Northern Ireland, In 2006 they qualified before exiting with a solitary point, and in 2010, they made neither the finals, nor a playoff, finishing second to last in the final round Qualification.
And then, came Carlos Quieroz, fresh off a stint with Real Madrid. Inheriting a team traditionally slanted for attack, Quieroz prioritized defense. The result was transformational. Iran didn’t just qualify in 2014, they cruised, topping a group with South Korea after losing just 3 of 14 matches. While a loss to Bosnia eliminated them from the finals, Iran showed well against African champion Nigeria, and eventual runner-ups Argentina.
The IFF nearly lost Quieroz to sheer incompetence, but the Madrid magician returned and 2018 went even better. Iran went undefeated in 18 qualifiers putting up a continent best 22 points in the final round. They opened the group stage with their second ever World Cup win before putting forth valiant efforts in 1 goal loss to Spain and a tie against the Portuguese. While they were narrowly eliminated in the group of death, no one could deny that Quieroz had built something special.
Quieroz resigned for the 2022 cycle, but his machine kept rolling. After a couple shock losses in the first round of qualifying, Dragan Skokic righted the ship. Putting together a continent high 25 points in the final round, Iran qualified easily, only losing a dead-rubber against South Korea.
And so, on the crest of a rising tide, Iran enters their third straight World Cup. The old magician is back, their star man is shining, and controversy abounds.
Can Team Melli finally break through?
Expected Finish: 4th
Why?
Originally I had them 3rd. Then they fired their reasonably successful coach. Then their second best player got hurt. And now there are various distractions. I have no issue with political activism in sport, but combined, these conditions don’t seem conducive to optimal performance in high-stake tournament soccer.
Iran are the least talented team in their group. Frankly, they’re one of the least talented teams in the tournament. One of their two stars will, at best, be limited, and there is plenty of reason to think the team won’t be playing at their best.
Maybe Carlos can bring it together, but this is a big ask.
Why not?
Besides England, Iran are the most experienced team in Group B. They also performed well four years ago in a tougher group with a weaker set of players.
Iran are also, arguably, the second most in-form team, pairing a dominant qualification campaign with some decent friendly results for a top 20 ranking in Elo and FIFA.
Iran could definitely surprise, but I have a few too many questions to pick them.
Key Players
In 2022-2023, Mehdi Taremi has 5 goals and 2 assists in 5 champions league matches to go along with 6 goals and 5 assists in 13 outings in Liga Portugal. Moreover, the underlying data suggests that this production is sustainable and therefore predictive. Mehdi’s production has certainly translated with the national team with Taremi putting up 7 goals and 5 assists in 13 Asian qualifiers. An elite chance creator, scoring threat, and ball-progressor, Mehdi Taremi is one of Group B’s stars and is Iran’s best player. If Taremi can produce for his country as he has produced at the highest levels of Europe, Iran has every chance to advance.
Sardar Azmoun has 41 goals in 65 caps. While Azmoun has struggled for goals, and minutes, at Leverkusen, he’s been Iran’s main talisman internationally, scoring 10 times in 14 qualifiers to help The Persian Stars reach Qatar. It’s unclear what Sardar can offer Iran as he’s rushed back to fitness, but a healthy Azmoun would make Quieroz’s job significantly easier.
Wales | Elo: 26 | FIFA: 19 |
History: At long last, The Dragons have arrived. In 1958, they were World Cup quarter-finalists. Now, 64 years later, Wales makes its return.
In 1876, the Welsh faced the Scots for Wales’ first ever friendly. They would lose the game, badly, but would win the sweet consolation prize of being the third oldest national team in the world. A year later they would play the Scots again… and lose. They’d try yet again in 1878… and lose… by 9. The Football Association of Wales(FAW) decided they’d try England instead. William Davies scored Wales’ first ever goal and the Welsh lost by a respectable margin of 2-1. In 1880, perhaps buoyed by nearly erasing a 3-goal deficit in a 3-2 loss to England, Wales decided to try Scotland again; they lost 5-1.
At long last, in 1881, after the FAW smartly switched back to the Brits, a John Vaughan strike gave the Welsh their first victory. In 1882, the Irish national team was formed, and the Welsh took the chance to orientate them with a beat-down. With consecutive victories under their belt, the Welsh faced England a month later. Wales went a goal down, went a man down, then came back to beat the Brits 5-3.
With the advent of the British Home Championship in 1884, the natural pecking order was restored. Over the first three championships, Wales beat Ireland to avoid 4th, while going winless against England and Scotland to go 3rd. Then in 87, The Dragons flipped the script, losing 4-1 to Ireland to finish last. Finally, in 1895, by tying all their fixtures, Wales finished 2nd.
In 1905, Wales finally beat Scotland, thereby managing their second 2nd place finish. In 1907, the Welsh won it all, beating Scotland, beating Ireland, and tying England to win their first gold. When the tournament ended in 1987, Wales ended up with 12 gold medals. England and Scotland picked up 54 and 41 respectively, and Ireland finished with 8.
With the FA rejoining FIFA in 1946, Wales became eligible for participation in the 1950 World Cup. To qualify they would need a top two finish in the 1949-50 Home Championship. Losses to England and Scotland consigned Wales to 3rd. Wales would finish last in the 1953-54 championship, once again missing the World Cup. In 1958, the British Home Championship was dropped as a means of qualification. Instead Wales would be randomly drawn against other teams in Europe.
With an emerging golden generation under the stewardship of Jimmy Murphy and a qualification path that avoided perennial bullies England and Scotland, Wales looked set for a first World Cup appearance. Yet The Dragons came up short once more, finishing 2nd in a group with Czechoslovakia and West Germany. But fortune favored the Welsh, and a series of withdrawals set-up Wales with a second chance: An inter-continental playoff against Israel. The Dragons soared, comfortably beating Israel home and away. At the tournament proper, Wales conjured the magic of 1895, finishing 2nd in their group by tying all their group-mates. In round two, they faced Brazil. Even in defeat, the Welsh accounted for themselves well, losing by one to a team that would bash France and Sweden en route to their first World Cup victory. It would take the Welsh a while to get back.
Wales failed to qualify for the first four European Championships. When they reached the Euros in 1976, they surprised, making the quarterfinals. Perhaps their most notable accomplishment during this period was splitting spoils with England – then World Cup holders – in the 1970 Home Championship.
The Welsh came close to World Cup qualification in 1982, missing out on goal difference thanks to a 3-0 defeat by Soviet hands. 4 years later, despite a romp over the Spaniards, a 1-1 draw – marred by tragedy – meant that Wales missed out on goal difference again. Continuing a long-line of agonizingly close misses, The Dragons came within a penalty kick of the World Cup in 1994 and lost a playoff for a spot the 2006 Euros.
Enter Gareth Bale. With an emerging cluster of talent spearheaded by a world-class attacker, the world’s third oldest national team entered a new golden age. The Welsh easily qualified for the 2016 Euros where they’d make an unlikely run to the semi-finals. Wales would qualify for the 2021 Euros, marking the first time The Dragons have reached consecutive major tournaments. Then, on the back of their brilliant, if fading, talisman, Wales reached Qatar.
And so arrive The Dragons. In a sport defined by expectation, this Diamond Generation has indisputably delivered. Win, lose, or draw, Qatar will be a celebration, commemorating a return that redeems decades of heart-ache. The Welsh will play with house money.
So just how far can they go?
Expected Finish: 3rd
Why?
Wales are the third most talented team in their group, have not impressed with recent results, and their aging superstar has struggled mightily in a 2nd tier league.
European teams historically perform worse in hotter climates, and there are already early signs that Wales might wilt in the Qatari heat.
Wales could certainly surprise, but it’s hard to see them as favorites.
Why not?
Gareth Bale is often a different man when he plays for his country. And whatever you thought of Bale during the Major League Soccer(MLS) regular season, when the time came to win, Gareth delivered.
Wales, unlike the USMNT, have a clear identity they’ve played with for years. With fast wingers and Gareth Bale, it’s not hard to see the Welsh punishing an American centerback partnership which has barely played together, or, depending on who Berhalter chooses to start, is demonstrably error-prone.
With Azmoun still hurt, Iran is likely going to be relying heavily on a single attacker for offense. Considering that Wales have, arguably, the second best center-back pairing in group B, The Dragons may well be able to neutralize Team Melli.
Maybe that isn’t enough, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bale and co. proved me wrong.
Key Players
Having bagged all 3 of Wales’ goals during the UEFA qualification playoffs, Gareth Bale is still Wales’ most dangerous magician. A 5-times Champions League winner, as well as a 1x MLS Cup Champion, the former Tottenham superstar may just buy The Dragons a ticket to round 2.
Daniel James is fast. A regular player for a Fulham team holding up surprisingly well in the Premier League, James’ ability to make probing runs, outpace defenders, and arrive at dangerous spots, may prove vital for a Wales team that doesn’t like using the ball. With pace, defensive chops, and a nose for goal, James might break a few hearts in Qatar.
Predicted Group Standings
| 1 | England |
| 2 | United States |
| 3 | Wales |
| 4 | Iran |
For more info on the methodology click here.
Group Previews:
USMNT
Gregg Berhalter’s Legacy
USMNT
What’s in a Resume?
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
A look back at the full-time USMNT Manager’s resumes before they were hired
You can’t go anywhere on social media today without seeing passionate fans, former USMNT players, and media asking for Gregg Berhalter to be fired, and rightfully so after the USMNT was grouped at the 2024 Copa America. The USMNT became the first team since 1993 when the tournament went from a Round-Robin format to a Group Stage & Knockout Stage format to not make it out of the group stage.
Most fans are well aware of how, but maybe not why Gregg Berhalter was hired not once, but twice as the USMNT manager and continue to wonder why he was the chosen one due to his unimpressive resume.
History of the past Full-Time USMNT Managers
The USMNT hired its first full-time manager in 1976 a decade and a half after beating England 1-0 at the 1950 World Cup, during that stretch the USMNT would hire and fire 17 managers with only George Meyer being rehired who failed twice to qualify the USMNT for the World Cup.
Since 1976 the USMNT has also employed 17 managers three who have managed the national team multiple times and five who were caretakers.
Here’s a look at the resumes of the nine full-time managers at the time of being hired to lead the USMNT along with their records as national team manager.
Walter Chyzowych – July 1976 – November 1980
8 Wins, 10 Draws and 14 Losses, GF-26, GA-50
Walter Chyzowych’s coaching career started as the caretaker of the Philadelphia Textile in 1961 and he ended up coaching the team until 1975, during that time he was also an assistant for Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals from 1971 to 1975.
In 1975 the U.S. Soccer Federation hired Chyzowych as their director of coaching a position he would hold until 1981. Chyzowych the first full-time USMNT manager would coach the national team for two World Cup cycles (1978 and 1982) failing to qualify for the World Cup both times. Chyzowych’s signature win came on the road against 21st ELO-ranked Hungary a 2-0 win on October 26, 1979. It’s also worth noting that Chyzowych’s older brother Eugene managed the USMNT for three matches in 1973.
Alketas ‘Alkis’ Panagoulias – January 1983 – June 1985
6 Wins, 7 Draws and 5 Losses, GF-19, GA-21
Panagoulias’s coaching career started in 1967 when he coached the New York Greek Americans to three consecutive National Challenge Cup titles in 1967, 1968, and 1969. In 1972 he was hired as the assistant coach for Greece under the legendary Billy Bingham of Northern Ireland. Panagoulias would be employed as the Greece national team manager in 1973. He would coach the Greece national team until 1981. Panagoulias would help Greece qualify for the UEFA Euro 1980, where they would fail to get out of the group.
In 1981 Panagoulias left the Greece national team and would coach Olympiacos for three seasons where he would win the Alpha Ethniki title in 1982 and 1983.
In 1983 US Soccer hired Panagoulias as the USMNT manager, at that time Panagoulias would manage the national team, Team America (1983), and the 1984 US Soccer Olympic team. Panagoulias would fail to qualify for the 1986 World Cup, but came very close to advancing to the final round of qualifying, but lost in a must-win home match to Costa Rice 1-0.
Bob Gansler – January 16, 1989 – February 23, 1991
15 Wins, 6 Draws and 16 Losses, GF-43, GA-41
The former USMNT defender held several coaching positions with the youth team from the mid-1970s until 1989 when he led the U-20 USYNT to fourth place at the 1989 FIFA World Youth Championship, while also serving as the head coach at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee men’s soccer team from 1984 through 1988. Gansler also coached the USMNT for one match in 1982, a 1-0 win against Trinidad & Tobago. Bob Gansler was the first USMNT manager in 40 years to qualify for the World Cup.
Bora Milutinović – March 27, 1991 – April 14, 1995
30 Wins, 31 Draws and 35 Losses, GF-116, GA-110
Bora started his coaching career in 1977 when he was hired as the manager of the UNAM Pumas where he coached until 1983. Bora would win two trophies as the UNAM manager of the Concacaf Champions League and Mexican Champion in the 1980/1981 season.
Bora would next become the Mexican National Team manager in 1983 and coach them at the 1986 World Cup hosted by Mexico. The team would finish sixth and end up losing in penalty kicks to West Germany, who would lose in the Final to Argentina.
After leaving Mexico in 1986 Bora would have a handful of other manager jobs in South and Central America and on short stint in Italy where he would coach Udinese nine matches.
Bora was hired as the Costa Rican National Team manager in 1990 and would coach them at the 1990 World Cup in Italy. Bora would once again get his team out of the group and into the knockout stage. Costa Rica would end up finishing 13th after losing to Czechoslovakia 4-1 in the Round of 16
Steve Sampson – April 15, 1995 – June 29, 1998
26 Wins, 14 Draws and 22 Losses, GF-83, GA-69
Steve Sampson’s coaching career started as the boy’s varsity soccer coach at Awalt High School in Mountain View, California, where he would coach for two seasons, followed by being an assistant coach at Foothill Owls and the UCLA Bruins where he would be part of the coaching staff of the team that would win the 1985 NCAA men’s soccer championship.
Sampson would finally get his first college coaching job when he was hired by Santa Clara Broncos in 1986. Sampson would lead his 1989 Santa Clara Broncos to the NCAA Men’s Soccer Championship against Virginia who was coached by Bruce Arena. The teams would battle through regulation & four overtime and end up being named Santa Clara and Virginia as co-champions.
In 1993 Sampson was hired as an assistant to Bora Milutinović and was on the staff during the 1994 World Cup team.
Bruce Arena – October 26, 1998 – July 14, 2006
71 Wins, 29 Draws and 30 Losses, GF-210, GA-98
Arena was hired as the head soccer coach of Virginia a job he would keep for 18 years. In his time with Virginia Arena won five NCAA Division I men’s soccer championships (1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994) and would coach many USMNTs like Claudio Reyna, Jeff Agoos, Ben Olsen, John Harkes, and Tony Meola.
In 1996 Arena would leave Virginia and coach in the inaugural first season of Major League Soccer for D.C. United where he would end up winning two MLS Championships, one Concacaf Champions Cup, and one Supporter Shield
Arena would also coach the U-23 USMNT team at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, Georgia where they would finish third in the group with four points.
Bob Bradley – December 8, 2006 – July 28, 2011
43 Wins, 12 Draws and 25 Losses, GF-134, GA-97
In 1982 Bradley began his coaching career at Ohio University where he coached for two seasons. Bradley would then become an assistant coach under Bruce Arena at Virginia before returning to his alma mater Princeton where he would coach for 11 seasons he would win two Ivy League titles and finished fourth at the 1993 NCAA Division I men’s soccer tournament.
In 1996 Arena would once again hire Bradley to be an assistant coach with him at D.C. United for two seasons. Bradley would also be the Arena’s assistant coach at the 1996 Summer Olympics.
Bradley would finally get his first manager job in the MLS when he was hired by the Chicago Fire in 1998 where he won the MLS Cup as well as the U.S. Open Cup in their first season in the MLS. Bradley would go on to also coach the MetroStars (New York Red Bulls) and Chivas USA while complying with a record of 150 Wins, 74 Draws, and 108 Losses with those three MLS teams, before being hired as the USMNT.
Jürgen Klinsmann – July 29, 2011 – October 13, 2016
55 Wins, 16 Draws and 27 Losses, GF-178, GA-109
Jurgen_Klinsmann
Klinsmann would be hired as the German National Team manager in 2004 after a disastrous showing at UEFA Euros. Klinsmann would lead the Germans to the semi-finals of the 2006 World Cup where they would lose in extra time to Italy and end up defeating Portugal in the Third Place playoff match. Soon after the 2006 World Cup Klinsmann declined the offer to renew his contract.
Klinsmann would become the coach of Bayern Munich in July 2008. Klinsmann would get Bayern Munich to the quarter-finals where they would lose to eventual UEFA Champions League winner Barcelona. Klinsmann would be fired with five matches remaining in the Bundesliga season 2008-2009 but would finish in second place in the table two points behind VfL Wolfsburg.
Toronto FC hired Klinsmann in November of 2010 as the team’s technical consultant to help with coaching and player evaluation.
Gregg Berhalter – December 2, 2018 – TBD
44 Wins, 13 Draws and 17 Losses, GF-144, GA-65
In Berhalter’s third and final season as a player with the Los Angeles Galaxy was added as one of the assistant coaches due to his leadership abilities. Berhalter played very few matches due to ongoing and lingering injuries. The Galaxy led by Bruce Arena would end up winning the 2011 Supporters’ Shield and the 2011 MLS Cup.
Manager Rumors and Speculations
We’ve seen many lists and thoughts on who the next USMNT manager should be if Gregg Berhalter either steps down or is sacked by US Soccer. The USMNT needs an experienced manager who can get the most out of the group while providing winning results.
American Manager Options
Several American options are currently under contract like Steve Chreudolo (Los Angeles FC), Jim Curtin (Philadelphia Union), former USMNT manager Bob Bradley (Stabæk), or Pellegrino Matarazzo (TSG Hoffenheim) all seem very unlikely unless they can find a way out of their contracts, which was a problem when hiring Gregg Berhalter, which is why they waited over a year to hire him.
Then you have several former unattached USMNT players Tab Ramos (former Youth Technical Director and U-20 USMNT manager) Hugo Perez (former El Salvador manager) and David Wagner (former Norwich manager) who could be considered, all who would make great assistances to the next manager and or candidates for the 2030 cycle.
There is also Bruce Arena who’s sitting at home right now and might want to redeem himself.
Foreign High Profile Managers
These lists also include big names like Jurgen Klopp who is currently traveling around the United States on this 4th of July weekend or Marcelo Gallardo formerly manager of Al-Ittihad or Mauricio Pochettino most recently the manager of Chelsea for one season. Other big name managers who are currently available include Xavi formerly with Barcelona or Zinédine Zidane but those options aren’t going to happen.
Ideal International Manager Options
At this point in the cycle, the USMNT must hire a manager with International experience to prepare the USMNT for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Here’s a look at managers with International expertise and their record as an International manager.
Joachim Löw (64) – Free Agent – Former German National Team Manager (2006-2021)
124 Wins, 40 Draws & 34 Losses, GF-467, GA-200
- 2008 – UEFA Euro – Runners Up
- 2010 – World Cup – Finished Third
- 2012 – UEFA Euro – Lost in semi-finals
- 2014 – World Cup – Champions
- 2016 – UEFA Euro – Lost in semi-finals
- 2017 – Confederations Cup – Champions
- 2018 – World Cup – Finished 22nd & last in their group
- 2020 – UEFA Euro – Lost in Round of 16
Joachim Löw International’s resume and results speak for themselves. While I am not sure if he would accept an offer to coach the USMNT he checks all the boxes.
Hervé Renard (55) – France WNT
70 Wins, 38 Draws & 46 Losses, GF-205, GA-142
- 2010 – CAF Africa Cup of Nations – Lost in the Quarter-Finals in PKs – Finished 6th
- 2012 – CAF Africa Cup of Nations – Champions
- 2013 – Eliminated in the group stage – Finished 12th
- 2015 – CAF Africa Cup of Nations – Champions
- 2018 – World Cup – Eliminated in the group stage – Finished 27th
- 2022 – World Cup – Eliminated in the group stage – Finished 25th
The French women’s national team manager is preparing for the 2024 Olympics, whose contract ends after the 2024 Olympics. Renard’s International experience with five different nations over six stints with Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Angola, and two stints with Zambia.
Jorge Sampaoli (64) – Free Agent – Former Chile (2012-2016) & Argentina (2017-2018) National Team Manager
34 Wins, 13 Draws & 12 Losses, GF-116, GA-65
- 2014 – World Cup – Lost in Round of 16 in PKs
- 2015 – Copa America – Champions
- 2018 – World Cup – Lost in Round of 16
While Sampaoli’s International coaching career has been limited he has been successful in his stints as well as winning four trophies as manager of Club Universidad de Chile in the early 2010’s
Senol Gunes (72) – Free Agent
38 Wins, 23 Draws & 21 Losses
- 2002 – World Cup – Lost in Semi-Finals – Third Place
- 2003 – Confederations Cup – Third Place
- 2020 – UEFA Euro – Eliminated in the group stage – Finished 24th
Gunes’ most recent run as International manager with Türkiye wasn’t as successful as his first but has the necessary experience with International soccer. Gunes won six trophies as a manager two with Trabzonspor in the mid-1990s and another two with Trabzonspor in 2010 while also winning two trophies over the last eight years with Besiktas.
Louis van Gaal (72) – Advisor with Ajax
41 Wins, 19 Draws & 4 Losses, GF-154, GA-51
Louis_vanGaal
- 2014 – World Cup – Lost in Semi-Finals – Third Place
- 2022 – World Cup – Lost in Quarter-Finals – Fifth Place
At 72 van Gaal’s coaching days might be behind him, however, he did get the Netherlands to the quarter-finals of the 2022 World Cup and lost in penalty kicks to the eventual winner Argentina. Van Gaal also has a very long and successful club coaching career with Ajax, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester United where he won 20 trophies.
Luis Enrique – Paris Saint-Germain
26 Wins, 14 Draws & 7 Losses, GF-97, GA-37
- 2020 – UEFA Euro – Lost in Semi-Finals in PKs – Third Place
- 2020–21 – UEFA Nations League – Second Place
- 2022 – World Cup – Lost in Round of 16 in PKs – 13th Place
It was rumored that Enrique was one of the three or four named final candidates for the USMNT in 2023. While Enrique’s International experience is limited he has recently competed in several FIFA tournaments will solid results with Spain. Enrique has also had a very successful club career earning 13 trophies with Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona.
Next steps for US Soccer and the USMNT
So where does US Soccer go from here? From the sounds of it, leaders inside US Soccer don’t want to part ways with Gregg Berhalter, but I have to wonder why not. Gregg met the expectations of many when the USMNT qualified for the 2022 World Cup and made it out of the group, but in my humble opinion he isn’t able to take this group any further, which is very clear based on recent results against Trinidad and Tobago on the road in Nations League semi-finals, a home Friendly against Colombia and the home lost at Copa America to Panama.
I fear that the USSF will either not fire Gregg Berhalter or fire him and hire another puppet MLS American to run the USMNT, which isn’t what is needed over the next two years if the USMNT is going to make a wanted and needed deep run at the 2026 World Cup.
USMNT
Scheduling Conflict
World Cup hosts USMNT, Canada and Mexico will have trouble scheduling quality Friendlies over the next two years.
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup less than two years away the USMNT will have limited opportunities to schedule quality matches as the rest of the Confederations compete in World Cup Qualifying and other tournaments, one of the disadvantages of hosting a World Cup.
US Soccer recently announced the USMNT will be playing home matches in the September FIFA window against Canada at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City and New Zealand at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati. US Soccer also announced one October match against Panama at Q2 Stadium in Austin Texas. It’s worth noting that Mexico could be the second match scheduled for the October FIFA window as there have been recent rumors indicating the likelihood of that happening.
The scheduling of quality opponents for the USMNT has been criticized by fans in recent years but with the creation of new Confederation tournaments in UEFA and Concacaf, the window for schedule matches between those Confederations has become increasingly challenging.
The USMNT rival to the south seems to be able to schedule additional Friendlies during a window as well as better-quality opponents. Mexico was able to schedule a third match during this June window as opposed to the USMNT which only had two matches. Mexico also scheduled three matches to USMNT one match in 2021 before the 2021 Gold Cup and yet again in 2022 scheduling three matches in the June window before the 2022 Nations League Finals along with scheduling two Friendlies before the 2022 World Cup.
I suspect over the next two years that the USMNT, Canada & Mexico will partner with one another in trying to schedule the same opponents for matches likely played in the United States, which happened during the 2023 October FIFA window when the USMNT and Mexico both played matches against Germany and Ghana.
Breaking Down of Confederation Schedules
US Soccer will have to work hard and be creative when trying to schedule matches for the 2025 windows in June, September, October, and November. It will get somewhat easier once teams in each Confederation move to the different rounds of World Cup qualifying.
Here’s a look at each Confederation by window
AFC (Asian Football Confederation)
September 2-10, 2024 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 6 Teams)
October 7-15, 2024 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 6 Teams)
November 11-19, 2024 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 6 Teams)
March 17-25, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 6 Teams)
June 2-10, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 6 Teams)
September 1-9, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
October 6-14, 2025 – Fourth Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Match window – 2 Groups of 3 Teams)
November 10-18, 2025 – Fifth Round – AFC Playoff – Winner advances to the inter-confederation play-offs
March 23-31, 2025 – Inter-confederation play-offs (To include One team from AFC)
The USMNT has scheduled and played over 780 matches but has only played 11 away (7) or neutral (4) match Friendlies since the 1990 cycle, which is partly to do with the logistics.
CAF (Confederation of African Football)
September 2-10, 2024 – Africa Cup of Nations
October 7-15, 2024 – Africa Cup of Nations
November 11-19, 2024 – Africa Cup of Nations
March 17-25, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifying (5 Groups of 6 Teams)
June 2-10, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
September 1-9, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifying (5 Groups of 6 Teams)
October 6-14, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifying (5 Groups of 6 Teams)
November 10-18, 2025 – Second Round – Group Runners Up – Winner advances to the inter-confederation play-offs
March 23-31, 2025 – Inter-confederation play-offs (To include One team from CAF)
Similar to the AFC the USMNT has only played five away (4) or neutral (1) Friendly matches since the 1990 cycle, which has mostly to do with the party logistics.
Concacaf (Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football)
September 2-10, 2024 – Concacaf Nations League
October 7-15, 2024 – Concacaf Nations League
November 11-19, 2024 – Concacaf Nations League
March 17-25, 2025 – Concacaf Nations League
June 2-10, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
September 1-9, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 4 Teams)
October 6-14, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 4 Teams)
November 10-18, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (3 Groups of 4 Teams)
March 23-31, 2025 – Inter-confederation play-offs (To include Two teams from Concacaf)
The USMNT needs to avoid scheduling Friendly matches with teams from Concacaf as much as possible.
CONMEBOL (South American Football Confederation)
September 2-10, 2024 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
October 7-15, 2024 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
November 11-19, 2024 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
March 17-25, 2025 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
June 2-10, 2025 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
September 1-9, 2025 – World Cup Qualifying (1 Group of 10 Teams)
October 6-14, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
November 10-18, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
March 23-31, 2025 – Inter-confederation play-offs (7th team in standings to be included as the One team from CONMEBOL)
Over the last ten years, the USMNT has played 21 Friendly matches with CONMEBOL teams which has been their best chance to get regular quality opponents.
OFC (Oceania Football Confederation)
September 2-10, 2024 – First Round – World Cup Qualifying (Lower four seeds play in a knockout series)
October 7-15, 2024 – Second Round – World Cup Qualifying (2 Groups of 4 Teams)
November 11-19, 2024 – Second Round – World Cup Qualifying (2 Groups of 4 Teams)
March 17-25, 2025 – Third Round – World Cup Qualifying (Knockout series winner qualifies for Inter-confederation play-offs)
June 2-10, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
September 1-9, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
October 6-14, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
November 10-18, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
March 23-31, 2025 – Inter-confederation play-offs (To include the One team from OFC)
The USMNT has only ever played five matches, soon to be six matches against only Australia (Former member of OFC) and New Zealand
UEFA (Union of European Football Associations)
September 2-10, 2024 – UEFA Nations League
October 7-15, 2024 – UEFA Nations League
November 11-19, 2024 – UEFA Nations League
March 17-25, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifiers (Groups of 5 Teams Play) or UEFA Nations League
June 2-10, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifiers (Groups of 5 Teams Play) or UEFA Nations League
September 1-9, 2025 – First Round – World Cup Qualifiers (All Groups of 4 & 5 Teams Play)
October 6-14, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
November 10-18, 2025 – No World Cup Qualifying matches in this window
March 23-31, 2026 – Inter-confederation play-offs (To include the One team from OFC)
I am unsure if there will be an opportunity for the USMNT to play any of the UEFA teams that aren’t part of the groups of five teams as some of those teams are likely to be participating in the quarter-finals or promotion/relegation play-offs of the UEFA Nations League. It’s also possible that any idol teams in those groups of five will be available from a Friendly in Europe. It’s still to be determined until the groups are drawn for the UEFA World Cup qualifying.
Other Match Possibilities
In 1993 and 1994 the USMNT scheduled and played the most FIFA matches in a year in back-to-back years playing 34 matches in 1993 and 27 matches in 1994, a feat likely to never be repeated. In those years the USMNT also scheduled many matches against top-tier club teams like Bayern Munich, Kedah, and FC Zurich.
While I see this as an unlikely option we may see some closed-door sessions with club teams like we saw before the 2022 World Cup when they played Al Gharafa SC or before the 2023 Gold Cup when they played Flash FC.
With the recent failure at the 2024 Copa America, where the USMNT was grouped, the team and players need every opportunity to schedule matches against the best quality of talent to make the needed progress forward and US Soccer will need to be on the ball in making sure other nations don’t get matches scheduled before they do.
Gregg Berhalter’s Legacy
What’s in a Resume?
Scheduling Conflict
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