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Grouped or GLORY: GROUP C

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Argentina | Elo: 2 | FIFA: 3 |

History: With a tie against Ecuador in the last round of 2022 CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers, the Argentines were confirmed as invincibles. 2-time champions, 5-time finalists, and beneficiaries of two players often debated as the greatest in the history of the sport, even La Albiceleste tend not to look this good.

Formed at the start of the 20th century, the Argentina men’s national team opened its account with a bang. The first World Cup went mostly the same, but Uruguay would take revenge, coming from behind to deny La Albiceleste an inaugural triumph. Argentina withdrew from the next three tournaments, instead dominating regionally: In the 10 South American championships that took place during this self-imposed exile, Argentina failed to reach the final once.

              La Albiceleste returned to the World stage in 1958. They returned to the final 20 years later where they defeated the Dutch to hoist their first Jules Rimet. 8 years on, Maradona would lead Argentina to another triumph in Mexico, scoring 5 and setting up a decisive tally against Germany in the final.

In the 40 years after Maradona’s courtship of the divine, Argentina reached 3 World Cup finals, twice facing the Germans, and lost all of them. Since Messi’s emergence, La Albiceleste has lost 3 continental finals, and the aforementioned decider for the 2014 Copa de Mundial. On the back of the game’s greatest player, Argentina built a decade of heartbreak.

And then they won. And then they did it again.

 

And so arrive the Argentines, on the crest of a tsunami. Can the champions of South America become the champions of the world?

 

Expected Finish: 1st 

 

Why?

Argentina are the champions of South America, have a case as the best team in the world,  went undefeated against a notoriously difficult set of teams and fixtures, and are about to break the record for most games played without defeat

They have the best players, are playing at a historically high level, and haven’t failed to advance in 20 years.

Why would you pick against them?

 

Why not?

La Albiceleste face an injury crisis. That shouldn’t matter for the group stage, but it may prove costly in later rounds.

 

Key Players

The world’s most popular pick for “greatest of all time”, Lionel Messi is in-form again. The gold-standard of creation, progression, and scoring at his pinnacle, Messil’s impact on Argentina’s ability to win has been massive. Now on the wrong side of 30, La Pulga is not as influential as he once was, but it’s still hard to see Argentina winning everything without some magic from the sport’s preeminent magician.

 

Lautaro Martinez is making his case as one of the best attackers in the world. Highly prolific for club and country, Martinez’s combination of elite chance creation and goal-scoring has proven quite valuable to La Albiceleste. As the sun sets on Lionel Messi, the 25 year-old from Inter-Milan may prove to be a lynchpin for this team, both in Qatar, and beyond.



Mexico | Elo: 22 | FIFA: 13

History: And now we log another entry in the quest for quinto partido. A populous soccer-mad country with a strong domestic league and money to throw around, Mexico should be a powerhouse. Instead, El Tri is merely good

2-time World Cup quarter-finalists, 13-time World Cup qualifiers, perennial group-stage progressors, and the only team outside of Europe and South America to win a major FIFA tournament, Mexico have a strong case as the best of the rest. Yet, that mantle seems hollow given how far El Tri lag behind the best of the best,

Mexico first graced the world-stage at the inaugural World Cup in 1930. 3 games yielded 3 losses. To reach the 1934 edition, Mexico faced future arch-rivals USA. Mexico lost. After the second World War, Mexico emerged as the power in CONCACAF going perfect in qualifiers to reach the big dance in 1950 and 1954. From 5 more games, El Tri yielded 5 more losses.  Mexico finally yielded a point in 1958. In 1962 they went a step further and yielded a win. As hosts in 1970, Mexico yielded progression from the group-stage,

Success at home did not translate abroad with Mexico failing to qualify in 1974 and 1982 and going pointless in 1978. Fortunately, Mexico was, once more, awarded the right to host in 1986. El Tri capitalized, winning their group before notching their first, and only, knockout-stage win.

Unlike 1970, 1986 represented a permanent level-up. Mexico would host and win the confederations cup in 1999, reach the finals as invitees for two Copa Americas, and would consistently qualify for, and advance in, every World Cup where they weren’t banned for cheating.

With that we reach our status quo. Can El Tri buck history, or will they leave the way they’ve always left since 1994.

 

Expected Finish: 2nd

 

Why?

History tells us they’ll advance and I don’t see much to suggest Qatar would go differently. Mexico have qualified the way they usually do, have a talent pool similar to what they’ve had before and on par in terms of player quality with Poland while ranking higher on the basis of performance.

You’d be hard-pressed to find something Saudi Arabia compares favorably to Mexico with.

While Mexico hasn’t made the strongest case this cycle, in the absence of compelling counter-evidence, I’m going to bank on history.

Why not?

Mexico hasn’t looked great in recent friendlies, and there is a sense in Mexican fandom that the wheels are falling off. Mexico also technically grades out a bit lower on the talent front than Poland per TMV and WCDCS, and that may undersell the gap given the importance of strikers relative to other positions. Mexico simply has no equivalent for Lewadowski.

 

Raul Jiminez, formerly the centerpiece for El Tri, has not looked great since coming back from a life-threatening injury.

 

History is a guide, but it’s not a guarantee.

 

Key Players

Ajax Starter Edson Alvarez has emerged as Mexico’s best player in a cycle where various key pieces have found themselves in bad form. A strong defender and a capable playmaker, Edson will be critical for a successful campaign. 

 

Hirving Lozano is currently Mexico’s best attacker and a critical piece for a Mexican side that focuses the brunt of their offense down wide. A regular for a Napoli side that is comfortably leading Serie A, Lozano is goal-dangerous, a strong crosser, and a hard-working defender. 



Poland | Elo: 21 | FIFA: 20 |

History: Do not forget Poland. Despite their current reputation as perennial underperformers, Biało-czerwoni were the surprise of the 70’s and 80’s. A shock victory against football’s founders sparked a golden era that many countries could only dream of: Poland qualified for four straight World-Cups, escaped the group-stage at three of them, and became one of fourteen teams to reach two semi-finals via 3rd place finishes in 1974 and 1982.

That success has not been replicated. In the 30 years that followed, Poland have reached only 4 finals, all of which ended with the Poles getting grouped. Biało-czerwoni’s best approximation of success came at the 2016 European Championship with a quarterfinal exit. In two other European campaigns, the Poles were promptly grouped. 

2018 was particularly disappointing. With one of the best forwards in the world in the middle of his prime, Poland managed to win enough, and avoid enough friendlies, to be ranked top 8 FIFA, thus entering the World Cup draw in Pot 1. After gaming the system to secure an easier group, Poland were immediately eliminated 2 matches in. Akira Nishino thought so little of the Poles that Japan played  a “B-team” in a match where everything was on the line.

Poland will look to do better in Qatar, with a win against Sweden granting them, and Lewandowski, a chance at redemption.

Can Poland conjure the magic of the 74? Will Lewadowski deliver? Or will Poland, once again, disappoint?

 

Expected Finish: 3rd

 

Why?

Poland has the misfortune of being grouped with Argentina, possibly the best team in the world, and Mexico, a team who simply do not go out in the group-stage. Even if we ignored that, it’s not clear to me Poland is significantly more talented, or in better form. Lewandowski is a great equalizer, but is he enough?

Poland is the 3rd ranked team in this group by Elo, and FIFA, and has the third best track-record in terms of recent performance.

Maybe Lewandowski upsets the apple-cart, but 3rd place seems right to me. 

 

Why not?

Lewandownski has a case as the best scorer of goals on the planet, Poland do seem to have a marginal talent advantage by my chosen metrics, and that gap is probably undersold when we consider strikers having greater importance relative to other positions.  

Poland also swept Wales in the most recent nations league, and Mexico have looked bad in recent friendlies.

Poland breaking through here wouldn’t surprise me.



Key Players

To many, including Messi, a player worthy of the ballon d’or, Robert Lewandowski is maybe the best goal-scorer in the world. With a staggering 76 goals in 134 Poland appearances, the ex-Bayern superstar will be desperate to tally one in the World Cup. If Lewa is on, Poland has every chance to do something special here. 

 

Piotr Zielinski is having a phenomenal 22-23 thus far, with 5 assists and 3 goals in 15 Serie A games to go along with 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 champions league matches. An excellent chance creator who with an eye for goal, Zielinski is key for getting the best of Lewa, and if Lewa should fade, it will probably be up to the Napoli star to pick up the slack.


Saudi Arabia | Elo: 26 | FIFA: 19 |

History: Here fly The Green Falcons. Formed in the 50’s after a match pitting a collection of club players against the Egyptian Ministry of health, the last 40 years have constituted a golden aeon for Saudi Arabia soccer. The falcons have reached 6 of the last 8 World Cups, finished 2nd in the 1992 Confederations cup, and became the first team from the Middle-East to progress past the group phase after shock wins against Morocco and Belgium.

Saudi Arabia got started quickly. Having never participated in a full qualification tournament, the falcons had a proper debut in 1984 where they easily qualified… and then won. And then won again. Saudi Arabia would go on to make 5 consecutive Asian Cup finals, winning three. From obscurity to glory, the debutants had delivered a dynasty.

Having never put together a winning record in qualifying, The Green Falcons went undefeated to reach the 1994 World Cup and went on to reach the next three after that.

The falcons have a knack for surprise. Pegged to finish bottom in 2018, the Saudis recovered from a 5-goal whopping at Russian hands, to play Uruguay close and then upset the Egyptians. By topping a group with Japan and Australia, Saudi Arabia has earned the chance to surprise us once more.

They’ve already been dismissed, obituaries pending. Can the falcons prove us wrong?

 

Expected Finish: 4th

 

Why?

Saudi Arabia has not progressed in nearly 30 years having managed only 3 wins in 16 outings. They’re grouped with 2 teams that always make it, and are both the least talented, and lowest ranked side in this group. 

While topping a group with Japan and Australia is fairly impressive, Saudi Arabia’s regional success has historically not translated as well abroad in the same way it has for a team like Mexico. This may be a result of how Saudi Arabia plays. The falcons like to possess the ball and build attacks gradually. This may work disproportionately well in Asian qualifying with opponents who are less talented or prefer not to press high. It’s not hard to see this backfiring against their group-mates.

 

While it’s foolish to count them out entirely, it’s hard to argue they should be favored.

 

Why not?

History is a guide, not a guarantee. Taken as it is, one could construct the case that what the falcons did in qualifying is more impressive than what we saw from Poland or Mexico.

Additionally, familiarity is usually an advantage. Saudi Arabia’s team all plays in the same league which might offer an advantage in terms of chemistry and cohesion.

 

They’re underdogs for me, but dismiss The Green Falcons, at your own peril.

 

Key Players

Capable with the ball at his feet and an excellent positional defender, Mohammed Alburayk is a lynchpin for the falcons. With two AFC Champions League wins, 5 Saudi Professional League wins, 2 top 4 finishes at the Club World Cup, a combined 13 major trophies in 9 years as a pro, and a spot in the IFFHS “AFC Team of the Decade”, Alburayk is a giant in Asian football. With his ability to erase mistakes, and contribute in build up, Mohammed is particularly valuable for a Saudi side that likes to build slowly using positional overloads out wide.

 

Salem Al-Dawsari is Saudi Arabia’s most important attacker. Both the falcons’ primary creative hub as well as their biggest goal threat, it will probably fall on Salem to conjure up that little bit of offense Saudi Arabia will need to survive.

 

Predicted Group Standings

1

Argentina

2

Mexico

3

Poland

4

Saudi Arabia



For more info on the methodology click here.

Group Previews:

 

A

B

C D

E

F

G

H

 

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American Transfers: Stock Up & Stock Down

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The 2024 summer transfer window closed on September 1st and over a dozen Americans made a move in the two-month span.  These players range from youth players, like Mathias Albert, to veteran players like John Brooks.  Some moves were great, and some were not.  This article will review several of these transfers and determine if it was a stock up or stock down.

Sergiño Dest & Malik Tillman to PSV- Stock Up

Both Dest and Malik Tillman went on loan (with option to buy) to PSV in the Eredivisie at the start of last season.  Both had a great season where they could have gone to a better league for this season.  PSV decided to trigger both player’s buy option, making them permanent players for the Dutch club.  These are good moves in my opinion because Dest had a regrettable loan to Milan two seasons ago and a difficult relationship with Xavi Hernandez. 

Dest needs another season (in his case, half a season) with the Dutch club to develop, recover his young career, and show clubs that he can compete in the UCL.  The same goes for Tillman, who needs to further develop his attacking, work rate, and ability to compete in the UCL.  If both can replicate and/or take a step up from their performance from last season, they should return to a top 5 league.  (Note: Bayern has a buy-back option for Malik Tillman)

Santiago Castañeda to Paderborn- Stock Up

The Tampa-born Colombian-American spent last season with the 3. Liga with Duisburg where he appeared in 31 matches with 2 goals and 2 assists.  This season, he is with Paderborn, a consistent 2. Bundesliga club and he already has a goal in 5 starts across all competitions.  This is impressive when you realize that Santiago will be turning 20 years old on November 13th.  US fans (who do not follow USL closely) are just now learning about him and some probably have already written him off because of his background. 

He is taking a similar path as Lennard Maloney, who played in both 3. Liga and 2. Bundesliga before moving back up to the Bundesliga.  In Santiago’s case, he started with Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship before moving to Duisburg.  To add to the move being a stock up because of moving up a league, he is also a CDM, a position that the US is lacking depth at.  Other American CDMs who are in about his age (+/- 1 years old) are Daniel Edelman, Moses Nyeman, Marcel Ruszel, and Ethan Kohler (although, he is being converted to an RB) to name a few.  If he continues down this path, he can become the #1 American CDM in his age group followed by Pedro Soma (who is 2 years younger than Santiago) in the next age group.

Paxten Aaronson to Utrecht- Stock Up

The Paris Olympian will be heading back to the Eredivisie, but this time, he will be joining fellow Americans Taylor Booth and Rickson van Hees at Utrecht.  Paxten had a successful half season with Vitesse where he had 4 goals in 14 appearances.  As a CAM, he is competing against Gio Reyna and Malik Tillman (both being only a year older) for a spot on the USMNT.  Right now, he is not beating either one of them out, even with Gio being injury prone and Tillman’s lack of producibility for the USMNT. 

Gio has had several occasions of great moments with the national team and Tillman is coming off a 24-goal contribution season.  Going back to the Eredivisie would greatly help his development before heading back to Eintracht Frankfurt.  Also, if he has a more productive season than Tillman, then there is an argument to make Paxten the #2 CAM for the USMNT.  Currently, Tillman has 4 goal contributions in 5 matches across all competitions to Paxten’s 1 assist in 4 matches.

Caleb Wiley to Chelsea with loan to Strasbourg- Stock Up

This is one of the players who needed a move this summer and who was able to get an upgrade.  Caleb Wiley arguably has the highest ceiling amongst our U23 LBs.  Now, Strasbourg is employing him more as an LWB, which is, in my opinion, his best position.  Last season at Atlanta, Wiley started as a LW that led to a fantastic form.  When he moved to LB, he became inconsistent and stagnated, but he played more as a LWB and his form went back up.  Along with that and with him turning 20 in December, he needed to get out of MLS. 

We see what happens to players who stay in the MLS too long, i.e. John Tolkin, who has struggled to transition his club form to the USMNT, and Brandon Vazquez, who is now struggling to start for Monterrey and out of the USMNT picture.  Playing in a top 5 league and being developed into an LWB can help him unlock his full potential.  To add, Wiley already has 2 starts, a halftime substitution, and an assist for Strasbourg.

Rodrigo Neri to Atlanta 2- Stock Down

This is one of the most disappointing moves for those who follow the USYNT U20 team and the future state of the USMNT striker position.  Neri’s young career has dramatically fallen in just one year.  He was part of the Atletico de Madrid academy since 2021 but left their U19 team for Valencia U19 to now Atlanta 2.  Based on Be Soccer, Neri had 0 goal contributions in just only 11 matches for both Spanish U19 teams.  7 games in and Neri already has 3 goals and 1 assist for Atlanta 2.  This can either mean he has improved, returned to his Atletico U19 B form (where he had 17 goals in 32 matches), and/or that MLSNP is weaker than División de Honor Juvenil (the league that Atleti U19 is part of).  Either way, we can already see that his lack of goals has impacted his international career. 

The last time that he was part of the team was the U19/20 March camp against Morocco and England.  He was left off the CONCACAF U20 Championship for Keyrol Figueroa and Marcos Zambrano.  This is after being part of the U19 team that participated in the 2023 PanAm Games where he had 1 goal in 5 matches.  Besides that, he had scored a goal against England and a brace against Norway when he was part of the U17 team in 2022.  AS USA even had a piece on Neri back in 2022 calling him the next big thing for the US. 

Usually, this far of a drop would almost take you out of the international conversation but knowing US Soccer’s habit of calling up MLSNP players like Sergio Oregel Jr., there is still a chance that Neri can be back in the conversation in time of the 2025 U20 World Cup.  The only positive thing about this move is that it could help him get his career back on track.

Vaughn Covil to Las Vegas- Stock Down

For Covil’s career, this was the right move to make.  For his international career, it only leaves the Philippines for him.  His chances with England were never going to happen.  2-3 years ago, you could have said he had a chance with the US and even more with Canada with the right development.  Now, he is better off committing to the Philippines if he wants to have an international career. 

It’s a stock down move because it would’ve been better if he had made a deal with an EFL League 2 club than coming to the USL Championship and because he is limited to just one national team instead of four.  Hopefully, he does well at Las Vegas and can get a call-up by the Philippines.

Jonathan Gomez to PAOK- Stock Down

This move is one of the most disappointing of all the transfers this summer by an American.  While at Louisville and with the USYNT, he looked like a future LB/LWB option for the USMNT and another dual national battle with Mexico.  When he went to Real Sociedad and after his successful loan to Mirandes in La Liga 2, things were in an upward trajectory.  He left Real Sociedad (likely because they didn’t want to extend his contract, so they opt to sell him to make a profit) for reigning Greek champions, PAOK.  When it should have been a positive that he will be playing in his first season at a 1st division, it is a negative because of it being the Greek Super League 1.  PAOK is also in the Europa League and that should’ve been a positive for his career, but the Greek champions left him off their UEL roster. 

He is still only 21 years old and if he does well enough for them, then he can move up to a better league in a season or two.  At this moment, he has slipped out of the conversation to compete with Lund, Tolkin, and Wiley to be the future #1 LB/LWB.  To make matters worse, Caleb Wiley’s 2024/25 season has started off well at Strasbourg with 2 starts and an assist.  You could argue that during the 2023 U20 World Cup that JoGo was the better of the two at the LB/LWB position but now Wiley is above him on the depth chart.

Aidan Morris to Middlesborough- Stock Up

Like Caleb Wiley, Morris needed to leave MLS to further his development and avoid the situation that John Tolkin is in.  Even though Morris has been underwhelming for the USMNT, he has the potential to be a consistent player of the 23-26 men roster.  So far this season with Boro, he has been a standout and quick favorite amongst the fans.  Going to the EFL Championship was one of the best choices he could have made as his next stop.  The physicality of the league will teach him how to become more physical and his quick decision-making.  The development could easily put him in the top 4 CDM options for 2026. 

The biggest question for him is, can he transition his great club form to the national team.  If he can pull it off, he can jump ahead of Lennard Maloney and Tanner Tessmann, depending on how he does with Lyon this season.  This is a top 3 move by an American player not just because how the season is going so far for him but because Boro will be competing for promotion and development potential.

Tanner Tessman to Lyon- Stock Up

Tessmann’s transfer saga is one for the books.  He was closely linked to Inter Milan and Fiorentina until both fell apart because of disagreements.  Towards the end of the transfer window, he got a move to a top Ligue 1 club, Lyon.  If he had stayed with Venezia, he still would’ve been playing in a top-five league, but Lyon is the better option.  Venezia will be fighting to stay in the Serie A like they did in 2021/22, whereas Lyon is consistently a top 10 French club, and in many cases a top 5 club. 

To add to that, Lyon is in the UEL.  The season is not going well for Lyon right now, but they can recover and compete for UEFA qualification.  The club and the fans will be more demanding than Venezia because of their prestige, he can learn from veteran players like Matic and Veretout and it would require him to compete for starts.  It’ll be a real test for him after his last time in a top 5 league did not go as well and two great seasons in the Serie B.

All of these will help him take the next step and help him be in the top 3 CDM USMNT conversation.  The battle Tessmann, Aidan Morris, Maloney, Johnny Cardoso, and Tyler Adams (once he returns) for the top 2 CDM spots on the USMNT will be a joy to watch this season.

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Who’s a Keeper?

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

The USMNT has had a solid track record with goalkeepers over the last three decades. There seems to be a problematic situation with their current group. Is this an overreaction or a real concern for the USMNT which is less than 2 years away from hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The average age of the last seven USMNT goalkeepers to regularly start in one of the top two tiers in Europe is 27.5 years old and while it took several seasons for Kasey Keller, Brad Friedel, Tim Howard, and Brad Guzan to settle and have continued success they did while all having the opportunity to be the number goalkeeper for the USMNT.

Where there has been a lot of deserved criticism towards Matt Turner’s play with the USMNT lately it’s clear that he remains the best shot-stopper in the pool, but also clear that a transfer from Nottingham Forest is desperately needed to provide regular playing for Turner. Turner’s foot skills remain weak along with the rest of the USMNT goalkeeper pool very much an area that needs improving. Something they could learn from Tony Meola who was hands down the best USMNT goalkeeper with his feet.

Struggles also continue for Ethan Horvath whose transfer to Cardiff City last February was supposed to provide him with the needed playing time to push Turner for the number one goalkeeper spot of the USMNT but, his performance at Copa America didn’t inspire many, along with a recent match for Cardiff City where he conceded five goals.

DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 27: Matt Turner (L) and Ethan Horvath of United States interact during the United States Training Session at Al Gharafa Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)


November 27, 2022, in Doha, Qatar (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

USMNT Youth Goalkeepers

The current group of USMNT goalkeeper prospects appears to be solid, but if history has proven anything there are no guarantees. The list of the failed USMNT youth keepers over the last decade is long. It includes names like Joe Bendik, Alex Bono, Cody Cropper, Tally Hall, Clint Irwin, Dan Kennedy, and Luis Robles, of the over 15 USMNT prospect goalkeepers who have only been capped 18 times, eight of those held by Bill Hamid.

At the moment goalkeepers Antonio Carrera (20), Matt Freese (25), Chituru Odunze (21), and John Pulskamp (23) are on the outside looking in compared to the goalkeepers listed below.

Currently playing for Fulham U-21 Premier League 2 (Reserve League) Alex Borto (20) who was part of the 2023 U-20 World in May and June, but didn’t receive any playing time will need to increase his current playing time to get more opportunities but, I feel Borto is much lower on the youth USMNT depth chart at the moment.

A regular starter for the Chicago Fire over the last couple of seasons Chris Brady (20) is another highly touted USMNT goalkeeper, who has been held back from regularly being called into USMNT youth camps by his club. A move to Europe would provide him with the next level of competition needed to continue his growth as a goalkeeper.

Who would trust a now 18-year-old who hasn’t had any professional experience to start for the USMNT? Not many but Diego Kochen (18) who is currently with FC Barcelona Atlètic in the Third Division is a name that continues to be mentioned, but highly unlikely in my opinion.

As the starter for all four of the U-23 USMNT Olympic matches Patrick Schulte (23) has earned a call-up to the USMNT. Schulte has had a very strong season with the Columbus Crew which accounts for 8 clean sheets over all matches at the time of this article.

Many fans think Gaga Slonina (20) is the best U-23 goalkeeper in the player pool and is destined to be the number-one goalkeeper after the 2026 cycle. Slonina is currently playing in EFL League One the third division in England. Slonina was the starting goalkeeper for U-20 USMNT where he had four straight clean sheets helping lead the US to the quarter-finals. He also was part of the U-23 USA Olympic team but failed to receive any playing time.


October 4, 2022, (Photo by Christian Hansen/Chicago Fire FC)

Aging or Bridge Goalkeeper Options

The list of recent third and often injured USMNT goalkeepers Drake Callender (26), Roman Celentano (23), Sean Johnson (35), and Zack Steffen (29) provide little to no confidence when looking at a current solution and none are likely to break into the top two of the depth chart but, stranger things have happened in the world of USMNT goalkeepers.

Looking Ahead

With less than 2 years until the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it’s unlikely that any of the younger USMNT goalkeepers will be able to play at higher levels and contend for the number one spot, which I believe still belongs to Matt Turner, but, Turner needs to do whatever possible to get a transfer to another top five leagues or worse case Eredivisie or EFL Championship as he needs to be playing matches every week to ensure he’s in form and improving headed into the World Cup with the backup position is up for grabs.

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USMNT

Gregg Berhalter’s Legacy

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Gregg Berhalter’s time as the USMNT manager has come to an end.  USSF has made the announcement that they have terminated Berhalter’s contract after 5 years in charge of the USMNT.  There are many highs and lows during his time as manager with just as many praises and controversies.  After the humiliating defeat at Couva during the 2018 World Cup Qualifying, there needed to be a change and the goal for 2022 was to qualify no matter what and how.  It was understandable for many fans to let bad results during Berhalter’s first cycle because of the goal we had set for 2022.  Now that we made it out of the group during the 2022 WC, the expectations for the USMNT would increase.  Those expectations have not been fulfilled since the rehiring of Gregg Berhalter.  Here are the top 10 reasons he had to go.

Crashing out of the 2024 Copa America

We were invited and given the rights to host the 2024, Copa America.  The USMNT’s first time participating and hosting the tournament since 2016.  The only players to appear in both tournaments were Christian Pulisic and Ethan Horvath.  On paper, the 2024 squad was better than the 2016 squad in almost every position.  Jürgen Klinsmann had a weaker squad but managed to reach the Semi-Finals in the 2016 Copa America.  It is one of the biggest accomplishments for the USMNT in recent history.  When you look at this year’s roster and what they did last year, the minimum goal should be the Quarterfinals and at most a Semi-Final appearance.  The USMNT did not come anywhere close. 

Players like Weston McKennie and Musah greatly underperformed.  A lack of discipline cost us games, like Tim Weah’s red card, and the foul that led to the Uruguay goal.  Against Bolivia, the USMNT only scored 2 goals against the worst team in CONMEBOL (1 win and a -10 GD in their WCQ campaign).  Giving up a lead when a man down and ultimately losing to Panama should never have happened, especially against a team that the USMNT has only lost to at home 3 times since 1993.  This put the USMNT in the worst possible situation in the tournament, a result against Uruguay and a win or draw for Bolivia. 

Good news did arrive for the USMNT when Bolivia tied the game, but this led to Berhalter informing our players prior to a set piece about the score.  This gave the indication that he wanted to chase for a draw, which has been a common theme during his tenure.  You cannot rely on Bolivia to bail you out.  You MUST go for the win.  As Herculez Gomez said, it is a loser mentality. 

People will blame the refs, Weah’s red card, or not having Dest, but that is not an excuse for poor in-game management by Berhalter.  After the firing of Gregg Berhalter, ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle wrote an article where he said that our group exit from the 2024 Copa America is the first time the USMNT had been eliminated in the group stage of a tournament that was being hosted in the US.  That is just one more stain on the legacy of Gregg Berhalter.

Poor Match Results

As mentioned, the poor result against Panama, a team we should have defeated even with a man down.  There are plenty more matches to talk about.  Since being rehired, Berhalter has a 7-1-6 record.  The most infamous would be against Trinidad & Tobago away.  Again, people will use the excuse that Dest got a red card, and it does not matter since we had qualified for the next round of the 2024 Nations League.  That was a game you should not have lost even with a man down, more so than the Panama match.  There are many other games that can be mentioned but let’s look at more record first.  Berhalter has an overall record of 44-13-17.  When playing outside of the US, the record is 4-7-8. 

Against top 20 FIFA ranked teams, the record is 5-5-8.  Four of those wins came against Mexico and the other being against Iran.  When we compare him to Klinsmann and Bob Bradley against top 20 FIFA ranked teams, Klinsmann was 10-6-14 and Bradley was 9-5-15.  For Bradley, only 3 of those wins were against the same team (Mexico) and 6 in total were against the same teams (2 times against Ecuador, Germany, and Mexico each) for Klinsmann.  This record would make Berhalter the winningest coach by percentage in USMNT history, but there are important contexts to include.  Jamaica was just seconds away from eliminating us in the NL Semi-Finals until an own goal by Cory Burke.  The USMNT did rally to defeat them 3-1 in extra time, but it was still humiliating for the team. 

Then you have the loss against Colombia before the Copa America where we lost 1-5.  The last time the team conceded 5 goals was in 2009.  A 1-3 defeat against Germany back in Oct of 2023 where we were not competitive at all.  From June 5 to November 25, 2022, the US had a 1-5-1 record.  The last match I will reference is the match against Honduras in San Pedro Sula where we had no control over the game in the 1st half.  It was not until Ricardo Pepi helped save Berhalter’s job with 2 assists and 1 goal to give us a 1-4 win.

Tactics

One of the biggest problems that Gregg Berhalter has is in-game management and pre-game tactics.  His go to formation is a 4-3-3, which is not always bad, but it is defensive minded and creates little chances.  We have seen that over the 5 years of having him as a manager.  During the 2022 WCQ, our goals per match were 1.5 and 1.8 during the 2021 Gold Cup.  The goals conceded per match was 0.2 during that Gold Cup and 0.7 during the WCQ.  Yes, statistically we would not concede a goal, but the USMNT was likely to only win 1-0.  No one likes a 1-0 game, because not only is it boring, but it is risky.  All it would take is for the opposition to score 1 goal to take 2 points from you.  Make it a mission to get 2 goals every game to give you some breathing space.  Berhalter also looks to park the bus, even when it is a tie. 

Against Panama in the Copa America, Berhalter decided to park the bus when it was tied and with a man down at the start of the 2nd half.  That is a high toll to ask the players to park it for 45+ minutes.  You knew you were playing Uruguay next, and that Panama has a very good chance of beating Bolivia.  A draw against Uruguay was going to be very difficult.  Yes, we were a man down, but that does not mean we should have given up getting the 2nd goal.  As we saw, we conceded a 2nd goal and it cost us to be in the worst possible situation in the group stage. 

Besides parking the bus, Berhalter wants us to score primarily off the wings and from crosses.  Against Jamaica during the 2024 NL, we attempted 41 crosses with only 11 being accurate.  None of the 3 goals in that match came from a cross.  Against Trinadad & Tobago at home during the QF of the 2024 NL, they went 11 for 39 on crosses.  The first goal did not come until the 80th minute mark, which should never have come close to being a draw against Trinadad & Tobago at home.  Only 1 of the 3 goals we scored in the last 10 minutes were from a cross.  When BJ Callaghan led the team during the 2023 NL, our crosses were reduced to 17 attempts in both matches.  In both matches, the goals came from up the middle where the team scored a total of 5 goals and 0 goals conceded. 

It was some of the best football that this group of guys have played in the last 5 years.  The players can score more goals than 1 and can score goals without crossing the ball.  As we can see, Berhalter does not know how to react when things do not go to plan as we saw against Panama and against Colombia.  A coach needs to be able to react and make the right call when things go sideways.  That is a major weakness of his and pundits have pointed it out in the past.  After Wales got their goal in the 2022 WC against the USMNT, Berhalter responded by substituting in Jordan Morris instead of Gio Reyna.  Gio Reyna is a playmaker, Jordan Morris is not.  At the time, the US did not have a playmaker on the pitch and that would be the time to use our best player in that role, Gio Reyna.  That is not the first time. 

During his 2nd cycle, Berhalter would commonly substitute Gio Reyna off when he decides to hold a draw or goes a man down.  The US did not win a single game when Gio was subbed off.  During the Copa America, Berhalter left Johnny Cardoso on the bench for Tyler Adams.  Johnny was developed in Brazil and played in several Copa Libertadores and was a standout in LaLiga once he arrived. Tyler Adams only played a total of 138 minutes between the EPL and the EFL Cup last season (Adams was out for majority of the season due to injuries).  Common sense would say to start Johnny Cardoso, but Gregg Berhalter did the complete opposite.  Besides that, Weston McKennie had been playing poorly for the USMNT all year and looked visibly unfit during the Copa America. 

Berhalter continued to start McKennie and gave him a total of 258 minutes.  Berhalter continued to award McKennie with starts and minutes when common sense would say that he must be benched.  Berhalter also had a major problem with rotating players and that had a major impact on the endurance of the players when it came to tournaments.  It was noticeable during the 2022 WC and Copa America.  These are all things that will be remembered by fans.

Player Selection

During his 1st cycle, Gregg Berhalter called up an astounding 65 different players in just competitive matches alone.  During the WCQ, he called up 39 different players to the camps.  Yes, after the 2018 cycle, the USMNT had to rebuild, but does it really require trying out 65 different players to figure that out?  For the WCQ, 13 of the 39 did not make the final cut.  I can understand making 2-3 changes every camp at the youth level, but this is the senior level.  He had already been with the team for 2 years.  He should have had a better idea who he needed to bring with him to the WCQ, which started in the Fall of 2021. 

The changes in the WCQ roster make sense if there is an injury, but not all the changes were made due to injuries, i.e., Gianluca Busio and Paul Arriola.  Berhalter had from 2019 to the Summer of 2021 to determine his WCQ roster and the alternate players.  When creating a team, either for business or sports, you need cohesion, or brotherhood to Berhalter, to get the best out of the team when the results matter. 

Continuously making changes for the most important competitive matches in your tenure will lead to problems.  By the end of the WCQ, the USMNT tied for 3rd in points and only qualified through goal differential.  The USMNT had a record of 7-4-3 with the away record being 1-3-3.  Who knows what that record could have been if the roster was more consistent.  Berhalter has improved his roster selection by focusing more on the players in Europe than the players in the MLS.  The argument for having half the roster or more being MLS players because they were veteran players and the players in Europe were too young.  It is an understandable reason, if that is the case. 

He did make significant changes to the roster when he took back control of the team by removing Jordan Morris, Jesus Ferreira, and Cristian Roldan from the team.  In this current cycle, Berhalter called up 36 different players in the 14 matches he oversaw.  To note, 7 of the 36 are or were MLS-based players.

Achievements

Gregg Berhalter does deserve big credit to the achievements he made while the manager of the USMNT.  While in charge of the team, he won the CONCACAF Gold Cup and won the CONCACAF Nations League in 2021 and 2024.  Now, you can make an argument that the players had a bigger part in that, when this is the best generation of players we have ever had.  Berhalter was still the manager and deserves the credit as well. 

After the US failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018, Gregg Berhalter accomplished qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.  It might not have been the prettiest World Cup for the USMNT, but the team did advance to the first round of the knockout stage.  That will be a positive note for his legacy as a USMNT manager.  The only thing that is missing from his list of achievements is a signature win.

There is one more piece to Gregg Berhalter’s legacy that will be remembered by many fans, but I doubt would be a footnote to his legacy (it would eventually be forgotten).  That being his relationship with the players.  I touched a little on in the “Tactics” section by awarding players starts and minutes when they did not deserve it, but it goes further than that.  It is known and visible that Berhalter showed favoritism towards certain players, those being the players on the “leadership committee”.  These players continued to play match after match when they did not deserve it or were too physically tired to continue. 

Tyler Adams mentioned in a press conference during the 2024 Copa America that he never speaks to Berhalter about soccer outside of the camps.  Whether with just a few or everyone, it is a concern that a coach does not speak to his players about the sport, on or off the field.  During the Copa America, it began to look like the players saw Berhalter as more of a friend than a coach.  It can be seen just as a fan by comparing the discipline of the players in the 2022 cycle to the 2024 cycle.  That is a huge concern within a team because it creates complacency and that was visible during the 2024 Nations League and the Copa America.

On paper, Gregg Berhalter will appear to be a top USMNT manager in its history, but once you peel those away and look deeper, he would be ranked below the likes of Bob Bradley, Bruce Arena, and Jürgen Klinsmann.

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