USMNT
GROUPED OR GLORY: Group A
Qatar | Elo: 49 | FIFA: 50 |
History: On December 2nd, 2010, The International Federation of Football(FIFA) declared that Qatar would host the Middle-East’s first Coupe du Monde. The decision sparked outrage, a bevy of accusations, and a steady stream of controversy, obscuring one of the more remarkable on-field turn-arounds in international football. When Al Enabbi were awarded the crown jewel of sport, The Maroon were ranked 114th(FIFA) having managed just 1 win across 8 games in the final round of AFC – The Asian Football Confederation – World Cup Qualification. Less than a decade later, Qatar were the champions of Asia, ranked 55th after a shock title run featuring wins over heavyweights UAE, South Korea, and Japan. In 10 Asian Cups before the 2019 edition, Qatar had managed a paltry 6 wins, garnering 27 points from 32 outings. In 2019, they won all 7 fixtures, scoring 19, and conceding once.
A British protectorate until 1971, Qatar was a relatively late-comer to international soccer, opening its football program with a 2-1 loss to fellow ex-protectorate Bahrain. Qatar would gain independence a year later, making The Maroon eligible for World Cup Qualification in 1974. Qatar withdrew in 74 but would debut 4 years later in the 78 tournament with a 2-0 win against… Bahrain; they lost their next 3 matches – including a 3-0 defeat to the Bahrainis – and finished last. They’d fall well short in 82; but managed to beat Bahrain a 2nd time in Bahrain’s only qualification match. It was the 81 U20 World Cup where Qatar made its first real mark reaching the final after wins against England and Brazil with a team developed by Qatar’s storied Aspire Academy. 8 years later that generation reached its zenith coming within a point of the 1990 World Cup. They came close again in 98 and picked up their first piece of silverware in the 92 Arabian Gulf Cup where they finished 2 points clear of 2nd place… Bahrain.
Amid a deepening pool of Asian teams, and a limited talent pool, Qatar returned to mediocrity in the 2000’s. With political incentives for Qatari soccer to improve, The Qatar Football Association took a more unconventional approach to team building. Aspire Academy started tracking young players across the world as Qatar’s government broke its own citizenship laws to naturalize the most talented kids they could find. Aspire Academy would end up tracking millions of players. For a country with a population that barely passed 1 million, this meant artificially multiplying the talent base several times over. Though not without controversy, this approach proved remarkably effective with Aspire Academy’s work laying the seeds for unprecedented highs.
This November we’ll see the culmination of one of football’s most ambitious projects. Qatar are good now. They’ll have a chance to show how good. Was 2019 a peak? Or was it the precursor for something greater?
The world is watching. For better or worse, Qatar is in its eye.
Expected Finish: 2nd
Why?
Hosts do well. All but one host nation in this near century-spanning tournament has successfully reached round two. Of the 7 hosts who had never advanced past round one, only one fell at the first hurdle. That casualty was South Africa – ranked 63(Elo) – who missed out, via tiebreaker, in a group with reigning finalists France, eventual semi-finalists Uruguay, and perennial progressors El Tri. According to Elo and FIFA, Qatar is significantly better than South Africa was. They also face, arguably, the easiest set of opponents in the tourney.
Qatar’s players have also played together, alot. Not only do all 26 call-ups play in the same league, but this roster is virtually identical to the one we saw in the 2019 Asian Cup, the 2021 Copa America, and the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Beyond that, all of these players developed together in the Aspire Football Academy meaning most of them have been learning how to play with each other for more than a decade. Simply put, It’s possible the players of The Maroon will have the best chemistry of any national team that has ever participated in a World Cup Finals.
Qatar demonstrated proof of concept with their performance in the 2019 Asian Cup. Winning is one thing, perfection is another. Qatar were the first team to win every game at the Asian Cup since 1974, where Iran won 4 games to clinch a 6 team tournament headlined by relative minnows Kuwait and China. Qatar won 7 out of 7 games to clinch a 16 team tournament featuring maybe the deepest pool of quality teams to ever grace the continent. In other words, the last time Qatar played in the Middle East, they put together, arguably, the most impressive continental performance in Asian history. For comparison, perceived favorites Senegal received much acclaim for an AFCON – African Cup of Nations – win where they played much weaker opponents and fared significantly worse.
Many-a pundit view The Maroon as minnows. I disagree.
Why not?
The 2019 Asian Cup was a while ago. More recent showings aren’t as promising. In the 2019 Copa America they finished last in a group with Argentina, Colombia, and Paraguay. The latter two failed to qualify; Paraguay didn’t even come close. South America is tough, but Ecuador managed.
Their most recent set of competitive games came in the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup hosted – and won – by the USMNT(United States Men’s National team). At first glance, they did ok; reaching the semi-final and losing to the eventual champion – in unlucky fashion – at their opponent’s backyard. Context paints a different picture. Qatar was one of a handful of sides to send a full-strength team to North America. They beat Honduras and Grenada – two teams who fell well short of world cup qualification – convincingly, tied a Panamanian team depleted by injury, and were an offside-call away from blowing a 3-goal lead to non-qualifier El Salvador. In the semi-final they faced a team of American reserves, succumbing to an attack spearheaded by Matthew Hoppe; currently playing left-bench with championship side Middlesborough.
Qatar look good when their opponents sit-back and give Qatar space. They look less good when the opposition pushes their lines and presses Qatar’s playmakers. This was the story of their matches against El Salvador and the US where they were dominant in the first half and got overrun in the second. They’re particularly vulnerable in transition and their three group-mates all have an abundance of pace.
There’s also a deficit in player quality. Qatar ranks 32 of 32 in both of our talent measures; away from home, they’ve looked the part.
The good news is these games are at home. While there is certainly a case against The Maroon, I’m banking on history.
Key Players
2019 Asian footballer of the year, Club World Cup bronze medalist, and arguably the greatest player in the history of the Qatar Stars league, Akram Afif is Qatar’s best player(ever). A phenomenal playmaker, neat on the ball, and a threat to score from just about anywhere, Afif will need to perform for Qatar’s offense to click. Afif has appeared 9 times in La Liga for Sporting Gijon making him the only player in the pool with top league experience.
Almoez Ali is one of the few players, ever, to be the top scorer of two continental competitions; in two separate continents. He won the golden boot – and was named best player – at the 2019 Asian Cup with a record-breaking 9 tallies. 2 years later, at the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup, Almoez scored 4 times in 5 games to be top scorer again. Ali was also named to the IFFHS AFC Men’s Team of the Decade to go along with an undisputed case as Qatar’s lead talisman. With 42 goals in 85 appearances, the Al Duhail striker will need to produce for Qatar to advance. Ali’s also a decent bet for goal of the tournament.
Netherlands | Elo: 4 | FIFA: 8 |
History: Behold The Oranje. With three appearances in the final, and no appearances at the winner’s podium, the Dutch are uncontested as the World Cup’s greatest bridesmaid. They are one of six national teams to reach the final three separate times. They are one of seven national teams to reach five semi-finals; but they are not one of the eight teams to hoist the Jules Rimet. What they’ve done is actually harder than just winning it all, even if it’s less satisfying.
Recent heart-breaks have been particularly potent. In 2010, entering South Africa as a dark horse, The Flying Dutchmen – literally at times – huffed and fouled their way to a perfect finals run – including a come-back win against No.1 ranked Brazil – before succumbing in overtime to No.2 ranked Spain. 2014 started sweetly, with a flying dutchman putting La Roja to the sword. The dish turned sour in the semis in a shoot-out loss to the Argentines. 2018 ended before it began. Needing a top two finish in a qualification group with two eventual quarterfinalists, The Oranje could only manage third. Their female counterparts had an inspired run to the 2019 World Cup final where they… lost to an American juggernaut.
Before the Dutch were bridesmaids, they were minnows, combining for 2 appearances – and 0 points – for the first 40 years of the Wereldbeker. Then, upon a Cruyff-faced wave, the Dutch entered 74 as the favorite. They lost… in the final. They entered 78 without Cruyff and reached the final once more; then lost to Argentina. While The Oranje’s style of play – the quintessential example of positional football – left a legacy so strong that the 74 and 78 Dutch sides are still regarded as one of the greatest teams ever, winners they were not. I would be remiss not to mention that the Dutch managed a singular European triumph in 88, but that’s really not the same.
Once more the Dutchmen will swim against a tide, and once more they will dare to escape it. Will the soccer gods finally smile down on Johan’s children?
Expected Finish: 1st
Why?
They are the most talented team, ranking top 10 in both TMV and WCDCS. They have been the best team, ranking top 10 in Elo and FIFA. They are undefeated in 15, have won their last six group games in their competition, and have a stronger track record at this tournament than the other three teams combined.
Why wouldn’t you pick them?
Why not?
Qualification was not easy. A loss to Turkey along with ties against Norway, Scotland, and Montenegro put the Netherlands in a precarious position in their final qualification match. Needing to not lose, the Dutch comfortably beat Haaland-less Norway, thereby booking their ticket to Qatar. That might be less impressive than Ecuador booking qualification from South America with games to spare.
The Netherlands also can’t say they’re continental champions, having lost to the Czech Republic in the Round of 16 at the 2021 European Championship. Perhaps they’ll falter before the champions of Asia and Africa.
While the Dutch aren’t allergic to build-up, they’re often direct. Transition offense is typically less effective when opposing defenses leave less space behind. Both Senegal and Ecuador leave extra players back when they attack. This makes both unusually difficult to break down. Ecuador in particular has a knack for peeling off points from more talented teams.
The Dutch are clear favorites, but they are not invincible.
Key Players
Barcelona starlet Frenkie de Jong may be the Netherland’s most essential piece for successfully surviving this phase of the competition. Facing two sides that usually give little, the Netherlands will rely on de Jong being a reliable metronome in the middle of the pitch. Gifted with the ball, and a strong orchestrator under pressure, Netherlands may well rely on Frenkie’s progression and ball-security to successfully navigate the group stage.
Matthijs De Ligt is world class. An attacking midfielder in his youth, De Ligt is the center-back equivalent of a 5-tool player. He’s a great passer, is strong and fast. Is excellent positionally, and is a threat in the air. In 2018 De Ligt won the golden boy awarded to Europe’s most impressive young player. In 2022, the 23 year old already has a strong claim as The Oranje’s best player. If there is to be total triumph in Qatar, Matthijs will have to deliver.
Senegal | Elo: 43 | FIFA: 16 |
History: Enter the African Champion. In 2002, the Lions of Teranga conjured magic. As France fell, Senegal soared, becoming the second African team to reach the quarter-finals. In 2022, Senegal carries the hopes of a continent. The world still waits for an African semi-finalist. To many, Senegal is the continent’s best hope.
Senegal won independence from France in 1960. The Senegalese Football Federation(FSF) formed later that year. In 1963 Senegal joined the Confederation for African Football(CAF), before debuting at the African Cup of Nations in 1965. With a win, a draw, and a loss, Senegal finished 4th. In 1968, they repeated that trick to finish 5th. They entered World Cup Qualification in 1970; their debut came in a two-legged playoff against Morocco where a 1-goal win for each country turned a two-legged tie into a three-legged tie. Morocco won game three. In 1974 Senegal ran into Morocco again, and again, the lions fell.
Senegal wouldn’t progress past the first round of qualification until the format changed in 1994. After winning their group in round one, they were drawn with Zambia and… Morocco. Morocco finished first to qualify. Senegal finished last. In 1998 they went back to falling at the first hurdle, losing a two-legged playoff to Togo. They returned to the second round in 2002, via a narrow win against Benin, only to be grouped with CAF heavy weights Algeria, Egypt, and… Morocco. To qualify for the World Cup Finals, the Lions of Teranga would need to win their group. And so they did. With a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, Senegal finished with 15 points, scraping by their long-time tormentors on goal-difference. The rest is history.
Alas, 2002 was a flash. Senegal failed to qualify for the next three tournaments, only returning to the Coupe du Monde in 2018, on the crest of a golden generation headlined by Sadio Mane. In Russia, they would miss out by the slimmest of margins, becoming the first team to be eliminated from the group stage on yellow card accumulation. In 2019, the lions reached their first AFCON final, only to lose on penalties. In the 2021 AFCON, Senegal faced another finals shootout. This time they won; Sadio Mane scored the winning kick. Senegal won another shoot-out to qualify for Qatar, making consecutive world cups for the first time in their history. Sadio Mane, once again, scored the winning kick.
And so enters the African champion, on the wings of a generation more talented than any that came before, carrying the weight of a continent.
Will they rise? Or will they crumble?
Expected Finish: 3rd
Why?
Senegal have talent, experience, and a favorable group. What they don’t have, is results. A win against Poland in 2018 has largely buoyed their FIFA ranking, but when we turn to the more reactive measure of Elo, we see they’ve dropped to 43rd. Yes Senegal are the champions of Africa, but only two African champions have ever progressed from the group-stage.
If we look at how Senegal became the champions of Africa, the Lions of Teranga don’t look so good. In a group with Malawi(140th), Zimbabwe(130th), and Guinea(110th), Senegal’s only goal was a 97th minute penalty. For reference, let’s take a look at Canada(29), a team that finished first in qualification from a region where winning continentally actually translates abroad. When Canada faced comparably ranked Suriname(127th), they won by four. When Suriname faced lower ranked Bermuda(160th), they won by six. Bermuda’s ranking may undersell them. Nakhi Wells is probably a better player than anyone on Malawi or Zimbabwe.
Egypt(53rd) is the best team Senegal have faced in a meaningful match over the last two years. In three games against this colossus, Senegal won(1-0), tied(0-0), and lost(1-0). If this was a three-legged tie, it would have gone to penalties. Of course, there aren’t shoot-outs in the group stage. If Senegal can’t score, they will not win.
To make matters worse, Sadio Mane is injured. For a team that barely scores with one of the best attackers on the planet, missing Mane may prove difficult.
Even without Mane, Senegal are still, theoretically, good enough. But as many-a African side can attest, theory doesn’t get you out of the groups.
Why not?
Senegal have talent, experience, and a favorable group. The Lions of Teranga rank top 16 in both TMV and WCDCS. This is also effectively the same team that played in the last World Cup, the last two AFCON’s, and the last two World Cup qualifying cycles.
Even without Mane, Senegal has a number of players at the best clubs of Europe. They should be as ready for this stage as anyone. Mane also isn’t entirely ruled out for the tournament.
Senegal has the pieces to succeed. But the puzzle hasn’t quite come together.
Key Players
Formerly named the best defender in Italy, and a 4-time participant on the Serie A team of the year, Kalidou Koulibaly is the centerpiece for one of the world cup’s more resolute defenses. With a rare combination of strength, agility, and skill, the Chelsea center-back is obviously very good. What may not be so obvious is Koulibaly’s value in attack. Senegal’s offense is largely based on playing long passes to runners. A big reason why Senegal are so hard to score on is that the lions often avoid throwing up numbers when they attack. This means that most of Senegal’s ball-progression stems from accurate deep-lying passes. Senegal’s best deep-lying passer is… Kalidou Koulibaly. Koulibaly will need to perform for both Senegal’s defense and offense to click.
Sadio Mane is a world-class attacker. One of the key pieces for a historically great Liverpool side, Mane’s injury is a big blow. While the floor won’t necessarily fall out, Mane’s health will determine Senegal’s ceiling. Assuming it all comes together, the lions have enough to survive their group without Mane. Anything else is a big ask. If Senegal is to break through and become the first African representative in a World Cup semi-final, they’ll probably need Mane to make a quick return.
Ecuador | Elo: 44 | FIFA: 18 |
History: On May 30th, 1925, the Federación Deportiva Nacional del Ecuador, was founded. Shortly after, La Tricolor were granted an automatic invitation to the first World Cup. Ecuador declined. On June 2nd, 2002, La Tri got their first taste of World Cup football, more than 70 years later, in a 2-0 loss to Italy.
Drinking from the well seems to have made La Tri greedy. 2022 will mark their 4th successful qualification in 6 attempts. Considering they play the world’s most difficult qualifiers, it’s a remarkable accomplishment.
More remarkable is the fact they’ve won, at least once, at each finals they’ve participated in. In 2002, they won twice, progressing to the round of 16 with emphatic victories over Costa Rica and Poland. England ended their run in the knockouts, but the tournament was indisputably a success.
Ecuador’s journey to the finals was arduous. 62 marked La Tri’s maiden campaign. Put in a home and home playoff against Argentina, Ecuador were lost by a combined scoreline of 11-3 after a trashing in Guayaquil, and a massacre at Buenos Aires. 66 went significantly better. With two wins against Colombia, Ecuador finished level on points with Chile. A one-off playoff on neutral ground would decide qualification. Ecuador lost 2-1. They wouldn’t win another qualifier until 1982 picking up a paltry 4 points from 12 matches. 98 marked the first time they’d strung together 2 wins in a single campaign as they finished only 4 points off the last qualification spot. That qualification spot was occupied by… Chile. 94 was particularly pathetic. Coming off a best ever 4th place finish in the 93 Copa America, Ecuador won one of 8 qualifiers.
2002 went differently. Having won 11 times in their first 55 qualification matches, La Tri won 9 of 18 to finish 2nd and cruise to their first finals. Their path to Qatar was similar with Ecuador winning 7 of their first 14 to help book an early ticket to Doha.
With the 4th youngest team in the tournament, a cadre of promising prospects, and a general sense that La Tri-color are more than the sum of their parts, there is plenty to be excited about…
…but is there enough to win?
Expected Finish: 4th
Why?
Ecuador’s track record in qualification is impressive, particularly at home where they won 5 times while losing only once. What they’ve managed away from home is more concerning. In qualification they only managed 2 wins away from La Casa Blanca. Both came against teams that failed to reach the World Cup. They haven’t fared much better on neutral ground, picking up no wins in 5 matches at the most recent Copa America.
While Ecuador has historically been characterized as a team that plays fun, attacking soccer, their current iteration is slower and more defensive-minded. It worked well enough at home, but will it translate here against a slate of teams that specialize in transition?
While there are promising youngsters, La Tri has a deficit in actualized talent, ranking among the bottom half of participants TMV and WCDCS. Have favorable conditions at home papered over the cracks? Ecuador may just not be that good; and unlike Qatar, they can’t count on experience, familiarity, or the comforts of home carrying them through.
Facing a host, and two teams with considerably better players, La Tricolor might be out of their depth.
Why not?
Ecuador ranks 18th in Elo, reflecting that they have had, by a margin, the second best form in the group. They didn’t play the best possible lineups in the Copa America and doing badly away is a world-wide phenomenon.
They are strong on set-pieces, have gotten several competitive results against some of the best teams in the world, and have a cadre of promising youth ready to outlast older opposition in what will be one of the hottest world cups on record.
South American teams usually advance, Irregardless of how they qualify. Ecuador have held their own against the best teams in the most difficult conditions.
This wouldn’t be the first time someone dismissed Ecuador as a team that can only win at home. They were wrong then. Maybe I’m wrong now.
Group A is one of those rare World Cup groups where you can make a strong case for all four teams advancing. I don’t think they will, but I’d love to see Ecuador prove me wrong.
Key Players
The star man on a Brighton side that has wildly overperformed expectations, Moises Caicedo is Ecuador’s best player. A do-it-all midfielder who can create, progress, and defend at a high level, Ecuador will need Moises at his best to advance.
Piero Hincapie is one of the better defenders in the Bundesliga. Strong on the ball, and excellent positionally, Hincapie is the anchor of La Tri’s defense. On a team that can struggle for goals, Hincapie will be vital for keeping the other team off the score-sheet.
Predicted Group Standings
|
1 |
Netherlands |
|
2 |
Qatar |
|
3 |
Senegal |
|
4 |
Ecuador |
For more info on the methodology click here.
Group Previews:
Club News
American Transfers: Stock Up & Stock Down
The 2024 summer transfer window closed on September 1st and over a dozen Americans made a move in the two-month span. These players range from youth players, like Mathias Albert, to veteran players like John Brooks. Some moves were great, and some were not. This article will review several of these transfers and determine if it was a stock up or stock down.
Sergiño Dest & Malik Tillman to PSV- Stock Up
Both Dest and Malik Tillman went on loan (with option to buy) to PSV in the Eredivisie at the start of last season. Both had a great season where they could have gone to a better league for this season. PSV decided to trigger both player’s buy option, making them permanent players for the Dutch club. These are good moves in my opinion because Dest had a regrettable loan to Milan two seasons ago and a difficult relationship with Xavi Hernandez.
Dest needs another season (in his case, half a season) with the Dutch club to develop, recover his young career, and show clubs that he can compete in the UCL. The same goes for Tillman, who needs to further develop his attacking, work rate, and ability to compete in the UCL. If both can replicate and/or take a step up from their performance from last season, they should return to a top 5 league. (Note: Bayern has a buy-back option for Malik Tillman)
Santiago Castañeda to Paderborn- Stock Up
The Tampa-born Colombian-American spent last season with the 3. Liga with Duisburg where he appeared in 31 matches with 2 goals and 2 assists. This season, he is with Paderborn, a consistent 2. Bundesliga club and he already has a goal in 5 starts across all competitions. This is impressive when you realize that Santiago will be turning 20 years old on November 13th. US fans (who do not follow USL closely) are just now learning about him and some probably have already written him off because of his background.
He is taking a similar path as Lennard Maloney, who played in both 3. Liga and 2. Bundesliga before moving back up to the Bundesliga. In Santiago’s case, he started with Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship before moving to Duisburg. To add to the move being a stock up because of moving up a league, he is also a CDM, a position that the US is lacking depth at. Other American CDMs who are in about his age (+/- 1 years old) are Daniel Edelman, Moses Nyeman, Marcel Ruszel, and Ethan Kohler (although, he is being converted to an RB) to name a few. If he continues down this path, he can become the #1 American CDM in his age group followed by Pedro Soma (who is 2 years younger than Santiago) in the next age group.
Paxten Aaronson to Utrecht- Stock Up
The Paris Olympian will be heading back to the Eredivisie, but this time, he will be joining fellow Americans Taylor Booth and Rickson van Hees at Utrecht. Paxten had a successful half season with Vitesse where he had 4 goals in 14 appearances. As a CAM, he is competing against Gio Reyna and Malik Tillman (both being only a year older) for a spot on the USMNT. Right now, he is not beating either one of them out, even with Gio being injury prone and Tillman’s lack of producibility for the USMNT.
Gio has had several occasions of great moments with the national team and Tillman is coming off a 24-goal contribution season. Going back to the Eredivisie would greatly help his development before heading back to Eintracht Frankfurt. Also, if he has a more productive season than Tillman, then there is an argument to make Paxten the #2 CAM for the USMNT. Currently, Tillman has 4 goal contributions in 5 matches across all competitions to Paxten’s 1 assist in 4 matches.
Caleb Wiley to Chelsea with loan to Strasbourg- Stock Up
This is one of the players who needed a move this summer and who was able to get an upgrade. Caleb Wiley arguably has the highest ceiling amongst our U23 LBs. Now, Strasbourg is employing him more as an LWB, which is, in my opinion, his best position. Last season at Atlanta, Wiley started as a LW that led to a fantastic form. When he moved to LB, he became inconsistent and stagnated, but he played more as a LWB and his form went back up. Along with that and with him turning 20 in December, he needed to get out of MLS.
We see what happens to players who stay in the MLS too long, i.e. John Tolkin, who has struggled to transition his club form to the USMNT, and Brandon Vazquez, who is now struggling to start for Monterrey and out of the USMNT picture. Playing in a top 5 league and being developed into an LWB can help him unlock his full potential. To add, Wiley already has 2 starts, a halftime substitution, and an assist for Strasbourg.
Rodrigo Neri to Atlanta 2- Stock Down
This is one of the most disappointing moves for those who follow the USYNT U20 team and the future state of the USMNT striker position. Neri’s young career has dramatically fallen in just one year. He was part of the Atletico de Madrid academy since 2021 but left their U19 team for Valencia U19 to now Atlanta 2. Based on Be Soccer, Neri had 0 goal contributions in just only 11 matches for both Spanish U19 teams. 7 games in and Neri already has 3 goals and 1 assist for Atlanta 2. This can either mean he has improved, returned to his Atletico U19 B form (where he had 17 goals in 32 matches), and/or that MLSNP is weaker than División de Honor Juvenil (the league that Atleti U19 is part of). Either way, we can already see that his lack of goals has impacted his international career.
The last time that he was part of the team was the U19/20 March camp against Morocco and England. He was left off the CONCACAF U20 Championship for Keyrol Figueroa and Marcos Zambrano. This is after being part of the U19 team that participated in the 2023 PanAm Games where he had 1 goal in 5 matches. Besides that, he had scored a goal against England and a brace against Norway when he was part of the U17 team in 2022. AS USA even had a piece on Neri back in 2022 calling him the next big thing for the US.
Usually, this far of a drop would almost take you out of the international conversation but knowing US Soccer’s habit of calling up MLSNP players like Sergio Oregel Jr., there is still a chance that Neri can be back in the conversation in time of the 2025 U20 World Cup. The only positive thing about this move is that it could help him get his career back on track.
Vaughn Covil to Las Vegas- Stock Down
For Covil’s career, this was the right move to make. For his international career, it only leaves the Philippines for him. His chances with England were never going to happen. 2-3 years ago, you could have said he had a chance with the US and even more with Canada with the right development. Now, he is better off committing to the Philippines if he wants to have an international career.
It’s a stock down move because it would’ve been better if he had made a deal with an EFL League 2 club than coming to the USL Championship and because he is limited to just one national team instead of four. Hopefully, he does well at Las Vegas and can get a call-up by the Philippines.
Jonathan Gomez to PAOK- Stock Down
This move is one of the most disappointing of all the transfers this summer by an American. While at Louisville and with the USYNT, he looked like a future LB/LWB option for the USMNT and another dual national battle with Mexico. When he went to Real Sociedad and after his successful loan to Mirandes in La Liga 2, things were in an upward trajectory. He left Real Sociedad (likely because they didn’t want to extend his contract, so they opt to sell him to make a profit) for reigning Greek champions, PAOK. When it should have been a positive that he will be playing in his first season at a 1st division, it is a negative because of it being the Greek Super League 1. PAOK is also in the Europa League and that should’ve been a positive for his career, but the Greek champions left him off their UEL roster.
He is still only 21 years old and if he does well enough for them, then he can move up to a better league in a season or two. At this moment, he has slipped out of the conversation to compete with Lund, Tolkin, and Wiley to be the future #1 LB/LWB. To make matters worse, Caleb Wiley’s 2024/25 season has started off well at Strasbourg with 2 starts and an assist. You could argue that during the 2023 U20 World Cup that JoGo was the better of the two at the LB/LWB position but now Wiley is above him on the depth chart.
Aidan Morris to Middlesborough- Stock Up
Like Caleb Wiley, Morris needed to leave MLS to further his development and avoid the situation that John Tolkin is in. Even though Morris has been underwhelming for the USMNT, he has the potential to be a consistent player of the 23-26 men roster. So far this season with Boro, he has been a standout and quick favorite amongst the fans. Going to the EFL Championship was one of the best choices he could have made as his next stop. The physicality of the league will teach him how to become more physical and his quick decision-making. The development could easily put him in the top 4 CDM options for 2026.
The biggest question for him is, can he transition his great club form to the national team. If he can pull it off, he can jump ahead of Lennard Maloney and Tanner Tessmann, depending on how he does with Lyon this season. This is a top 3 move by an American player not just because how the season is going so far for him but because Boro will be competing for promotion and development potential.
Tanner Tessman to Lyon- Stock Up
Tessmann’s transfer saga is one for the books. He was closely linked to Inter Milan and Fiorentina until both fell apart because of disagreements. Towards the end of the transfer window, he got a move to a top Ligue 1 club, Lyon. If he had stayed with Venezia, he still would’ve been playing in a top-five league, but Lyon is the better option. Venezia will be fighting to stay in the Serie A like they did in 2021/22, whereas Lyon is consistently a top 10 French club, and in many cases a top 5 club.
To add to that, Lyon is in the UEL. The season is not going well for Lyon right now, but they can recover and compete for UEFA qualification. The club and the fans will be more demanding than Venezia because of their prestige, he can learn from veteran players like Matic and Veretout and it would require him to compete for starts. It’ll be a real test for him after his last time in a top 5 league did not go as well and two great seasons in the Serie B.
All of these will help him take the next step and help him be in the top 3 CDM USMNT conversation. The battle Tessmann, Aidan Morris, Maloney, Johnny Cardoso, and Tyler Adams (once he returns) for the top 2 CDM spots on the USMNT will be a joy to watch this season.
Club News
Who’s a Keeper?
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
The USMNT has had a solid track record with goalkeepers over the last three decades. There seems to be a problematic situation with their current group. Is this an overreaction or a real concern for the USMNT which is less than 2 years away from hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
The average age of the last seven USMNT goalkeepers to regularly start in one of the top two tiers in Europe is 27.5 years old and while it took several seasons for Kasey Keller, Brad Friedel, Tim Howard, and Brad Guzan to settle and have continued success they did while all having the opportunity to be the number goalkeeper for the USMNT.
Where there has been a lot of deserved criticism towards Matt Turner’s play with the USMNT lately it’s clear that he remains the best shot-stopper in the pool, but also clear that a transfer from Nottingham Forest is desperately needed to provide regular playing for Turner. Turner’s foot skills remain weak along with the rest of the USMNT goalkeeper pool very much an area that needs improving. Something they could learn from Tony Meola who was hands down the best USMNT goalkeeper with his feet.
Struggles also continue for Ethan Horvath whose transfer to Cardiff City last February was supposed to provide him with the needed playing time to push Turner for the number one goalkeeper spot of the USMNT but, his performance at Copa America didn’t inspire many, along with a recent match for Cardiff City where he conceded five goals.
November 27, 2022, in Doha, Qatar (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
USMNT Youth Goalkeepers
The current group of USMNT goalkeeper prospects appears to be solid, but if history has proven anything there are no guarantees. The list of the failed USMNT youth keepers over the last decade is long. It includes names like Joe Bendik, Alex Bono, Cody Cropper, Tally Hall, Clint Irwin, Dan Kennedy, and Luis Robles, of the over 15 USMNT prospect goalkeepers who have only been capped 18 times, eight of those held by Bill Hamid.
At the moment goalkeepers Antonio Carrera (20), Matt Freese (25), Chituru Odunze (21), and John Pulskamp (23) are on the outside looking in compared to the goalkeepers listed below.
Currently playing for Fulham U-21 Premier League 2 (Reserve League) Alex Borto (20) who was part of the 2023 U-20 World in May and June, but didn’t receive any playing time will need to increase his current playing time to get more opportunities but, I feel Borto is much lower on the youth USMNT depth chart at the moment.
A regular starter for the Chicago Fire over the last couple of seasons Chris Brady (20) is another highly touted USMNT goalkeeper, who has been held back from regularly being called into USMNT youth camps by his club. A move to Europe would provide him with the next level of competition needed to continue his growth as a goalkeeper.
Who would trust a now 18-year-old who hasn’t had any professional experience to start for the USMNT? Not many but Diego Kochen (18) who is currently with FC Barcelona Atlètic in the Third Division is a name that continues to be mentioned, but highly unlikely in my opinion.
As the starter for all four of the U-23 USMNT Olympic matches Patrick Schulte (23) has earned a call-up to the USMNT. Schulte has had a very strong season with the Columbus Crew which accounts for 8 clean sheets over all matches at the time of this article.
Many fans think Gaga Slonina (20) is the best U-23 goalkeeper in the player pool and is destined to be the number-one goalkeeper after the 2026 cycle. Slonina is currently playing in EFL League One the third division in England. Slonina was the starting goalkeeper for U-20 USMNT where he had four straight clean sheets helping lead the US to the quarter-finals. He also was part of the U-23 USA Olympic team but failed to receive any playing time.
October 4, 2022, (Photo by Christian Hansen/Chicago Fire FC)
Aging or Bridge Goalkeeper Options
The list of recent third and often injured USMNT goalkeepers Drake Callender (26), Roman Celentano (23), Sean Johnson (35), and Zack Steffen (29) provide little to no confidence when looking at a current solution and none are likely to break into the top two of the depth chart but, stranger things have happened in the world of USMNT goalkeepers.
Looking Ahead
With less than 2 years until the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it’s unlikely that any of the younger USMNT goalkeepers will be able to play at higher levels and contend for the number one spot, which I believe still belongs to Matt Turner, but, Turner needs to do whatever possible to get a transfer to another top five leagues or worse case Eredivisie or EFL Championship as he needs to be playing matches every week to ensure he’s in form and improving headed into the World Cup with the backup position is up for grabs.
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