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A Quick Game Theory Look at the September and October CONCACAF Qualifying Window

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The USMNT plays six world cup qualifiers in the September and October FIFA windows.  It is widely reported that we play:

September

At El Salvador

Canada

At Honduras

 

October

Jamaica

@Panama

Costa Rica

Much has been made about how the USMNT might rotate and approach these games but what of our opponents?  Many think it possible all the teams but Mexico will punt games with the USA because they would expect to lose.  However, I do not think they will go into it with such a negative outlook.  I would believe they all expect to win at home and that is generally a good recipe for qualifying.  I do think teams will have to rotate, three games on top of club schedule, in a FIFA window is daunting.  Gregg Berhalter seemed to hint that he will be playing his best 11 in two games and rotating into a third game.  I think most will follow that formula.

Here is what I have come up with on the fly for the game theory of our opponents:

  1.  Play your best possible at home.
  2. For Canada/Jamaica/Costa Rica/Honduras, they need to maximize points against each other in a race for third.

September Window

ELS

CAN

HON

USA

HON

@CAN

HON

@USA

@ELS

@CAN

ELS

USA

 

In red I have the most obvious rotation games for each of our opponents.  El Salvador will play its best in their two home games and then whatever is left on the road at Canada.  Canada has two home games and would start their best.  This leaves their one road game against the USA for obvious rotation.  Honduras is in a tricky spot.  They would want to field their best lineup at home (Rule #1) and they really need a result against Canada according to Principle #2.  But that Canada road game is tough as is the USA game and going to El Salvador could be the easiest chance for three points.  Honestly, they could do anything, but playing your best against Canada and the USA and trying to get a result rotated against El Salvador makes sense.  

October Window

JAM

PAN

CRC

@USA

@ELS

@HON

CAN

USA

ELS

@HON

@CAN

@USA

 

This window sets up nicely for the USMNT in theory.  All our opponents have two road games and a single home game.  Jamaica needs to get a result against Honduras more than one at the USA.  Or in other words, their chances of getting a result at Honduras is far greater than at the USA.  The USA road game is the obvious choice for rotation.  

Panama need to play the home game against the USA with their best but then are in the same situation as Honduras in September.  Do they roll the dice against El Salvador, or try to beat El Salvador and punt the road game against fellow 3rd place contender Canada?  

Costa Rica can’t gamble and rotate for the home game against El Salvador and risk dropping points.  Then it is much like Jamaica and do they try hardest to get a result in neighboring Honduras or at the USA?  The smart money would be to rotate the USA game, bunker, and hope.

Conclusion

While this quick game theory exercise suggests teams will rotate against the USA in three of the first six games, they are the three USA home games.   So, really, the path will not be easier than history suggests it will be, as teams will try their hardest against the USA in their home games and the USMNT has generally won its home games.  I don’t think in these early windows that Gregg Berhalter can gamble and rotate the squad for home games.  Dropping points at home is simply too big a problem to risk at all.

What might benefit the USA is that their first team-up against rotated Concacaf opposition might put games away early.  That if the USMNT is up by 3 or more goals that players like Pulisic and Adams and McKennie can be subbed out early and subbed in for bigger minutes in the rotated game.  It will certainly also help that the threat to drop points at home seems minimal barring disastrous performances.

I’d expect after these two windows the calculus will change.  If the USA or Mexico or some other team is out to a strong lead, you might see teams rotate against them even in home games to maximize their chance for 3rd.  However, points are points and I doubt we ever see rotated opponents on the road. 

 

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The Next USMNT Star That Never Was: Revisiting America’s Biggest Teenage Prospects

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

With the next wave of highly rated teenagers likely to be brought into the #USMNT during the 2030 World Cup cycle, I decided to look back at some of the young players who were once hyped as the next stars of the U.S. Men’s National Team but never established themselves as regular internationals.

Freddy Adu would seem to be at the top of this list. While he never became a regular for the #USMNT or the world-class face of U.S. Soccer many expected, he still earned 17 caps, scoring 2 goals and adding 3 assists. In many ways, he accomplished more at the international level than most of the players who are listed below combined.

Which former USMNT prospects did I miss, players who are no longer playing or are past their prime, who deserve to be on this list?

Cody Cropper – GK – 0 caps

U.S. youth international and longtime goalkeeper prospect who reached the Southampton and MLS systems but never earned a senior cap.

Junior Flores – AM – 0 caps

Creative midfielder who joined Borussia Dortmund’s system as a teenager and was viewed as a major U.S. prospect, but never reached the senior USMNT.

Eddie Gaven – MF/W – 8 caps

Teenage MLS phenom who became a league standout, but despite eight USMNT appearances, his international career never developed further.

Luis Gil – AM – 2 caps

One of the most hyped American midfield prospects of his generation; debuted for RSL at 16 but never translated that promise into a sustained USMNT career.

Emerson Hyndman – MF – 2 caps

Highly rated central midfielder who broke through at Fulham and earned two USMNT appearances, but never established himself internationally.

Perry Kitchen – DM/CB – 5 caps

U.S. youth captain and defensive midfielder who became a regular MLS starter, but his senior international career stalled after five caps.

Will Packwood – CB/DM – 0 caps

Birmingham City prospect who became the youngest American to play in the English Championship, but injuries severely disrupted his development.

Marc Pelosi – LB/CB – 0 caps

Highly regarded defender who moved to Liverpool as a teenager, but injuries and limited senior opportunities derailed his path to the USMNT.

Gedion Zelalem – MF – 0 caps

Arsenal wonderkid and one of the most highly regarded U.S. prospects of his generation. Injuries and inconsistent senior opportunities slowed his development, and he never made a senior USMNT appearance. 

The number of young USMNT players in this September/October window is something we haven’t seen in quite some time. Some will catch the eye of newly extended USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino, while others may not, but all of them have an opportunity during this cycle to make their case for World Cup qualifying and, ultimately, a spot on the 2026 World Cup roster.

It all starts now, and it should be fun to follow their development over the next four years.

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Building the Next Generation: Who Should Be on Pochettino’s USMNT Radar?

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

Header_NextGen

With the USMNT manager in place and the new cycle underway it’s time for recently extended Mauricio Pochettino to get some new young players on his radar and what better time to do this than the September/October double FIFA window.

There are several U-23 players like Josh Wynder, Jalen Neal, Rokas Pukstas, Diego Kochen, Jonathan Gomez, Caleb Wiley, Cole Campbell, Chris Brady, Gaga, Slonina, Niko Tsakiris, Damion Downs, and Benjamin Cremaschi who have no caps order less than a handful with the USMNT. 

Will USMNT snubs or overlooked players opportunities be during the 2030 cycle look like? Players like Diego Luna, Tanner Tessmann, Aidan Morris and Camron Carter-Vickers to name a few, we have to wonder how or if they will be part of this cycle of players. I would suggest some will likely get the opportunity in the early part of the cycle but will need to be performing n with their club to remain getting called back into camps.

Integrating a few of these youth USMNT players during each window for the first half of the cycle will allow Pochettino to evaluate them up close and see if there might be a role for them during this next cycle.

It’s extremely important that the USMNT have a few on their current U-20 teenagers’ breakthrough and become a reliable part of the USMNT in the second half of the cycle. 

The below players will have an opportunity to play in next years U-20 World Cup being hosted by Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan as well as hopefully if their clubs release them being part of the 2028 Olympics USA Football squad to hopefully medal for the first time since 1904 when the US had two teams win Silver and Bronze. I think it’s also important to look at these players alongside some of the core USMNT in the upcoming window to see how they can integrate with one another.

Mathis Albert-17-Winger

Noahkai Banks-19-Centerback

Cole Campbell-20-Midfielder/Winger

Zavier Gozo-19-Winger

Julian Hall-18-Winger

Malik Jakupovic-17-Striker

Adri Mehmeti-17-Central Midfielder

Peyton Miller-18-Left Midfielder/Winger

Neil Pierre-18-Centerback

Cavan Sullivan-16-Attacking Midfielder

Whether we see all of these players, or just a handful, through the first half of the cycle, hopefully leading into another Copa América appearance, it’s clear that the time has come for Pochettino to begin integrating the next generation of USMNT players into the senior pool. How quickly that transition happens will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow.

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Mauricio Cuevas Taking “Huge Step Forward” in Liga MX

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CHICAGO — Four years on from captaining the United States to their last CONCACAF Under-20 title, Mauricio Cuevas is quietly stepping back into the spotlight. Still only 23 years old, the talented right back just moved abroad, leaving his boyhood Los Angeles Galaxy for Liga MX side Santos Laguna in a summer move that slipped under the radar.

“To be able to get sold to a big club like Santos is a huge step forward for me,” Cuevas said in an exclusive interview this Saturday. “From the first day, I knew the challenge coming into it because the club hasn’t been meeting expectations in the past few years. Coming in and trying to be a difference-maker is something that I wanted. It’s a new challenge for me, and overall I’m just super excited.”

New Challenge in Mexico

As a teenager, Cuevas showcased himself as one of the country’s most exciting young fullbacks. Known for his technical prowess and set piece ability, the L.A. area native spent time at Belgium’s Club Brugge before returning to the Galaxy in 2023. There, he won an MLS Cup in 2024, appearing 78 times in total before his departure this summer.

“It’s always tough leaving home,” Cuevas said. “Obviously, it’s my boyhood club. My family still lives there, and I was great with all the guys at the club as well. I knew everybody, from the staff and the front office to the coaches. It’s never easy when you’re leaving home.”

“Honestly, the people in Torreón and Santos have all welcomed me with open arms since the first day. They’re all amazing people. It’s an amazing club and an amazing city.”

The move to Liga MX made sense from a number of angles; Santos manager Renato Paiva wanted a new right back, Cuevas’s Galaxy contract was winding down, and his Mexican passport made a move south of the border quite easy. Since joining, Santos have faced an extremely difficult run of games against CF Monterrey, Atlas, Club América, and New York City FC — all of which Cuevas started.

“It’s been great, to be honest,” Cuevas said of his adjustment to life in Torreón. “There hasn’t been much of an adjustment tactics-wise or playing-wise because Renato, our head coach, has similar concepts to what we had at the Galaxy. The players are really good as well. There’s so much quality on the team.”

“The only thing I’ve probably had to get adjusted to is the weather. It’s a little too hot out there, the sun is beaming a lot. But I love it, man. It’s a super-calm city. It’s beautiful, with great food and great people.”

Back in the U.S.

The game against NYCFC came in Leagues Cup, a competition with a razor-thin margin for error. To advance past the first round, teams ideally need to earn at least seven points from their three matches; after losing to New York City, qualification for the knockout rounds is now nearly impossible for Santos. They’ll face Gregg Berhalter, Robert Lewandowski, and the Chicago Fire on Sunday (8 p.m. Eastern Time on Apple TV) in a game where anything but a win in 90 minutes would certainly eliminate them.

“I think we go into every game with the belief that every game is a must-win for us, so that doesn’t really change much. We know now that there’s more on top of that, we have even more reason to win. We’re just focused on ourselves tomorrow. We had a long travel day yesterday, so it’s all about recovery now and setting a game plan that puts us in the best position to win.”

Having started against the Fire at Soldier Field in 2024 and facing former youth national team teammates Chris Brady and Sergio Oregel, Cuevas will hope to give something extra in this game and help keep Santos alive in the tournament.

“Any tournament that this club steps into, we always have that goal in mind of wanting to bring that trophy back to Mexico, back to Torreón with us. We’re a competitive club. We’re one of the best clubs, history-wise, in Mexico, so we know what this badge carries.”

USYNT Hero

Coincidentally enough, the U.S. U-20s advanced to a fifth consecutive CONCACAF final on Friday, setting up a date with hosts Mexico at Estadio Azteca on Sunday. The semifinal win also qualified the U.S. for next year’s Pan American Games in Lima, ensuring qualification for back-to-back editions.

In addition to being a central figure in the last U.S. U-20 CONCACAF victory in 2022, Cuevas was part of the last Pan Am Games team in 2023; the U.S. finished fourth in an unusual competition that included several intriguing names like Sergio Oregel, Brooklyn Raines, Danny Leyva, and a then-relatively unknown Alex Freeman. For Cuevas, that tournament was a special memory, and one he remembers fondly.

“I remember the whole trip, to be honest. I made a lot of great friends and met a lot of great people on and off the field, from the staff to the players – people I’m still in contact with. There are some that are in Liga MX as well, Nico (Carrera), Antonio (Carrera), Danny (Leyva).”

“Every player from that age group and that camp has been doing great. It’s lovely to see, to be honest, seeing everybody shine.”

On the immediate horizon for the U.S. is Sunday’s U-20 final (6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on FS2). The Americans will be hoping that this year’s final is more reminiscent of Cuevas’ age group (a 6-0 final win over the Dominican Republic) than the 2024 edition (a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Mexico). As is often the case, the U.S. and Mexico will be without many of their top youth players for the tournament due to its concurrence with club games, but that has opened the door for others.

“We have two players from (Santos) that are representing Mexico, so congrats to them,” Cuevas said. “Huge shout out to (LA Galaxy’s) Ruben Ramos as well and Dylan Vanney, who are with the U.S.; they’ve been killing it. I’m just happy for all those guys. Proud of those guys.”

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