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Tyler Adams YNT Prospect Midfielder for USMNT Tyler Adams YNT Prospect Midfielder for USMNT

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YNT Prospects Probabilities and Possibilities

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Where Will They Go?

Now that you know who the best American YNT prospects born in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 are what should you do with that information, what does it mean, what happens next? What gets YNT prospects from where they are now to the big leagues? I’d advise everyone to engage in some probabilistic thinking. Done by thinking about the key factors that make any player successful.

Thinking in terms of probabilities means incorporating both uncertainty and the accumulated effects of the relevant variables on a player’s developmental path. Roughly it means projecting a player’s path forward based on a band of reasonable outcomes with an upper and lower bound. Beyond young players just tending to be more inconsistent in their performances from game to game (a YNT prospect bucking that trend is a good sign) the closer they are to puberty the more variance there is in where they could be in their athletic development.

I can see how strong and fast a 13 year old is. However, I don’t know if they have already filled out. Also their relative athletic advantages are temporary or likely to improve further. This type of problem must be worked on. However, not with the type of information gained from watching match footage.

An advantage players get in this period the relative age effect. It shows up in the disproportionate selection of early birth year players. They are, on average, more developed than the players born after them and, because of that, are seen as more effective. This advantage can compound as these players get more chances to play. Also more coaching focus, but it starts to dissipate as more players physically mature in the late teens. This is another reason why it makes sense to look at the best and worst reasonable case outcomes for a youth player when projecting them into the future. Maybe a player is being pushed by a manager because they are slightly older and more physically mature, that guy could end up staying among the top YNT prospects. They may fall back into the pack, and that’s challenging to figure out from YouTube.

TIPS

What has seemed to me to be the most useful rubric for determining what a player needs to succeed is the Dutch TIPS frame, TIPS being an acronym for Technique, Insight, Personality, and Speed (they, you, and I can cheat some to include other relevant physical attributes under this category).

So if you’re figuring out what a player’s abilities are by watching game tape you can pretty easily see technique and speed, you may need to know things about the opposition to get a better sense of where a player’s athleticism stacks up, but speed has some objective benchmarks. If you’re a skilled observer you’ll be able to gauge insight, the issue being that if you have little of it yourself you can’t fully evaluate if a player has it and must judge mostly based on outcomes (which like athleticism must be adjusted based on opponent). Seeing a youth player with real insight is a good sign for their prospects going forward because its relative advantage tends to translate up.

Personality is the real black box for third party observers. You get glimpses of it from reactions to things on the field (conflicts, going down a goal, moves falling apart, a teammate screwing up, etc) but that doesn’t tell you everything about how a player’s psychological makeup will fit the needs of a high level professional athlete. I’ve found that this is the endogenous factor that most frequently causes players to fall short of where their youth performances suggest they should end up.

Outside of the TIPS framework I would include environment, and obviously circumstances. In 2014 economists Casey Ichniowski and Anne Preston published a paper. It shows that when a senior team player transfers to and plays at a top team, their national team’s ELO ranking improves. This is a phenomenon labor economists call peer effects. The theory is that when someone is regularly exposed to high level peers they will become more productive. For youth and developing players I would go beyond looking at what the quality of the senior team’s results are. It’s important to understand the club’s overall developmental environment and how those effects will interact with a prospect. 

A top youth player should get chances to train with a senior team. Their development will be influenced by the other parts of the club and the club’s developmental culture. Not all big clubs are the same and some smaller clubs may be better for a player. The process of going from youth to senior team varies. Luis Saurez didn’t go from being a teen in Uruguay straight to Liverpool. He didn’t even go straight to Ajax. He took a path that allowed him an efficient way to progress into being a world class striker.

Players at different points in their careers can benefit from different things (high level individual instruction, tactics focused on development, chances to get their first minutes, competitive tactics that fit their abilities, and an elite first team squad and competitive environment that forces a player to improve). Few clubs have figured out or are capable of being able to expose new players to all those things. I’d advise people to judge the environment of a club based on where that player is in their career. What that club has shown they can do for the similarly situated is meaningful.

Tyler Adams

The are a lot of negative examples of YNT prospects and the factors that go into creating a high level pro but I’ll focus on one of the positives, Tyler Adams.

Adams was born in February of 1999. He was one of the youngest players who was part of the 1998 birth year U17 YNT. Despite his small stature he could hold his own physically. He flew into challenges. Many outside observers discounted him for his lack of technical refinement and things I thought were related to his relative inexperience

The Red Bull organization has their own collective experience. It has focused on bringing through their own players that fit their style rather than making splashy signings. As part of that ethos RBNY became one of the first in MLS to field a professional second team. It provided Adams the opportunity to play hundreds of professional minutes in his mid-to-late teens. As an organization they play an aggressive defensive style that fits Adams’ profile. For an American player of his type it’s hard to think of a better environment. It was ideal to allow him to grow prior to being eligible to move overseas.

The thing that really pointed to Adams being a success, beyond the on-field performances, were stories like the one Aaron Long [told Herc]. Long was a late bloomer himself who also benefited from RBNY II, tells above. I started hearing more about his mentality and training habits from insiders. The amount of uncertainty I had to factor into my evaluation of his prospects diminished. With credible stories about a growth mindset and a high level of competitiveness then the on-field performances can hold more sway.

He has looked like a CL player in the roles that his attributes fit. The type and quality of information about Adams that was applied to my probabilistic model resulted in a clearer picture of what the future would hold, as it would any player.

What the Future Holds for YNT Prospects

The US is producing more quality YNT prospects. As systems professionalize and improve the results will become more regular and of a higher quality. The upper bound of what that higher quality could be will be set by the innate capabilities of the inputs, the players, and shaped by the environments we provide them. As outside observers we can see how kids stack up at a single point in time.

We can apply a trend line to that but we can’t exactly know where that growth will take them. Hopefully now we know why we can’t exactly know and what the most reasonable set of outcomes should be. We must let that band of uncertainty and the information that narrows or shapes it guide our thinking. It should be the basis for our projections of the players on YNT prospect lists going forward

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USL’s American Soccer Dream

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USL made national headlines when they announced on February 13th, 2025, their plans to launch a Division One league, followed by the announcement of promotion/relegation on March 19th for the new Division One league, the Championship, and League One.  If sanctioned by US Soccer, USL Division One would be of equal status to MLS and compete for the best major soccer league in the U.S.  The implementation of promotion/relegation in the USL would become the first in the U.S. and test the question asked for many years, “would pro/rel work in the U.S.”  USL HQ informed the public that they planned to have the inaugural season of Division One during the 2027-2028 season with promotion/relegation beginning in 2028.  

Until November 3rd, with the announcement of Tony Scholes being hired as the President of the Division One, only three teams have applied for membership to the inaugural season of Division one: Louisville City, North Carolina FC (who announced at the time of the Scholes news that they would fold until the launch of Division One), and Pittsburgh Riverhounds.  There has been a rapid expansion of teams in the already existing leagues since the two announcements.  Teams joining League One are: Fort Lauderdale FC (2026 debut), New York Cosmos (2026 debut), Port St. Lucie SC (2027 debut), Sporting Cascades FC (2026 debut), and Rodeo FC (2027 debut).  Fort Wayne FC and Sarasota Paradise would also be joining League One from League Two (2026 for both teams).  For the Championship, Reno, NV will once again have a team planned for a 2027 debut.  Along with those teams, USL is actively working to expand to other markets.  The markets and partners they are looking at are Brevard County, FL (Space Coast Pro Soccer), Riverside, CA (Riverside Pro Soccer), Brownsville, TX (City of Brownsville), Winter Garden, FL (Central FL Pro Soccer), Santa Rosa, CA (City of Santa Rosa), and Pensacola, FL (City of Pensacola).

Along with these recently announced teams and partnerships, USL has teams joining the organization just in time for promotion/relegation that were announced prior to the February and March news.  Starting with League One, these teams include: Corpus Christi FC (2026 debut) and Athletic Club Boise (2026 debut).  As for the Championship, they will be adding Brooklyn FC (2026 debut), Sporting Jax (2026 debut), Atlético Dallas (2027 debut), Milwaukee Pro Soccer (TBD), USL Pro Iowa (TBD), Buffalo Pro Soccer (TBD), and Ozark United FC (2027 debut), while Santa Barbara Sky FC (2027 debut) would replace Memphis 901 FC.

Other than that, news on the Division One and promotion/relegation had been quiet until USL snatched Tony Scholes from the English Premier League.  Tony Scholes will be the President of Division and help with the implementation of promotion/relegation.  Scholes served as the chief football officer of the EPL and will join USL at the end of the EPL season.  As of November 15, 2025, USL Division One has not been sanctioned as a division one league by US Soccer.  The hiring of Scholes indicates that they are confident this new league will get approved or they have already been told it will, behind closed doors.  The fact that we have not heard news on what the promotion/relegation format would be, and Scholes task would be to help implement it could mean that USL has not come to a decision on one.  Since we do not have any ideas on what the format could be, I want to provide a possible option that they could go with.


One of the biggest questions people have had since the USL announced promotion/relegation was how they would tie it to the playoffs.  There is an option they could do, but it would result in only having one playoff.  USL would have a playoff for Division One, but they would eliminate the concept for the Championship and League One.  It might not be the most popular idea here in the U.S., but the main goal for the lower leagues is to get promoted, not to win a trophy.  They would retain the league title for those two leagues with the winner being the team with the most points at the end of the season, just like how it is in the European leagues.  The purpose is to create fairness for the top performing team(s) in the two lower leagues and reduce confusion.  If there is a need for a playoff format, they could adopt the format the Bundesliga uses where the 16th best team in the first division and the 3rd best in the second division face-off in a two-leg match to see who would be in the first division the following season.  The other option is the Championship concept, where the teams who finished 3rd through 6th in the table compete in a promotion playoff.  The semi-finals are two-leg matches while the final is a single-leg match.  The winner is promoted to the EPL.  The execution of promotion/relegation must be done perfectly to retain fans, gain fans, prevent confusion, and be entertaining.

USL already has a division one league with their women’s Super League, who is competing against the NWSL.  Currently, the S League has only nine teams (Brooklyn FC, Carolina Ascent FC, Dallas Trinity FC, DC Power FC, Ft. Lauderdale United FC, Lexington FC, Spokane Zephyr FC, Sporting Jax, and Tampa Bay Sun FC) to the NSWL’s 14 teams (3 teams in the works).  The Super League will be adding an additional nine teams (Athletic Club Boise, New York Cosmos, Ozark United FC, Buffalo Pro Soccer, Chattanooga Red Wolves FC, Forward Madison FC, Indy Eleven, Oakland Soul SC, and USL Palm Beach) with all but three to have their inaugural season to be determined.  What makes the S League unique from the rest of the soccer leagues in the U.S. is that they use a fall-summer schedule.  Competing against a top five women’s league in the world is a tall ask, but it shows the ambitions of USL.  

They are also willing to take risks by voting to pass promotion/relegation for the men’s league and have a fall-summer schedule for the S League.  If the S League schedule format proves successful, it stands to reason that they would move the men’s leagues to the same schedule.  It would also avoid the organization from having to fight MLS for viewership when the leagues are in play, especially when they launch a direct rival and are at their most ambitious point in their history.  The same can be done for the S League if promotion/relegation is successful for the men.  USL can start establishing lower women’s leagues and introduce promotion/relegation to the women’s game here in the U.S.

Many would say USL still stands no chance at competing against MLS, even with promotion/relegation and having a division one league.  That is the case when you look at the quality of the players is finance, but that is the reason why the USL made these decisions based on the reports prior to the announcements and afterwards.  Promotion/relegation and the introduction of a division one league could see an increase in investors.  We are already seeing that with the likes of Gio Reyna joining Fort Lauderdale as an investor, BellTower Partners investing into USL, Sofia Huerta and Kasey Keller joining the Athletic Club Boise ownership group, and the Chickasaw Nation becoming an investor of the OKC for Soccer just this year alone.  Then there is the expansion fee for MLS, MLS Next Pro, and the USL leagues.  MLS charges an astounding $500 million!  Yes, the money is used to construct a proper stadium, acquire players, etc., but at this point it will discourage many from purchasing a franchise license.  MLS currently only has two leagues and one of them is advertised as a development league to prepare for MLS.  The expansion fee for an independent team to join MLS Next Pro is unknown, but Sports Business Journal reported in 2024 that it is significantly cheaper than the USL Championship.  The fee to join the USL Championship is $20 million while League One is only $5 million.  These two fees are significantly lower than MLS and that will be more appealing to potential owners, but unlike the MLS fee, it is not enough for a stadium, training grounds, and players.  As for what the fee is to join USL Division One, that is unknown at the moment.

I highly recommend reading the ESPN article by Jeff Carlisle titled “Will USL’s Move to Pro-Rel Change U.S. Soccer, Threaten MLS?”  In there, Carlisle discusses the reasons behind the decision and that it is mostly financial.  For example, a USL spokesperson said they expect to see an increase in commercial revenue by 15% to 30% due to promotion/relegation.  Also, the former owner of San Diego Loyal lost $40 million in 4 seasons.  As for the reaction from MLS, we have not heard one yet.  The only possible reaction we have seen from them is what the former MLS Next Pro president, Charles Altchek, told to Backheeled back on March 6th, 2025.  In the interview, he told them they aim to have 40 to 50 teams and a possible second league with one of the MLS Next Pro leagues being a second division, putting it in direct competition with USL Championship.  The biggest question is, whichever league that is, can compete for fans?  Due to the Apple TV deal, we currently do not have the ratings of MLS Next Pro.  The closest idea we have is the attendance, which is 5,580 for USL Championship per match to MLS Next Pro’s 3,361, according to Transfermarkt.  Unlike the attendance, the viewership for USLC is much higher where the season premiere match had 453,000 viewers.  MLS Next Pro’s massive expansion plan announcement date was either a coincidence, or MLS got word USL’s promotion/relegation implementation with the division one news, and this was their response.  I will let you come to your own decision.

It seems, as of right now, it appears MLS will sit back and wait to see how the USL’s Division One and promotion/relegation will play.  Division One and promotion/relegation will either be successful for USL and lead them to the financial success they are hoping for or lead to the possible collapse of USL.  American sports fans are not the only ones keeping their eyes on USL now, but the rest of the soccer world is after their two massive news.  The coming years are going to be exciting times for American soccer!

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The constructing of a World Cup roster

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

With the September FIFA window now in the rearview mirror, and only three more windows left before final rosters are set in late May or early June 2026, Mauricio Pochettino has drawn a clear line.

He’s stated that September’s camp was the “last camp to have the possibility for new faces.”

If we take him at his word, the nearly 70 players who’ve been called across six camps and the Gold Cup will form the pool from which he selects the 2026 World Cup squad.

Of the 60 players named to the 2025 Gold Cup provisional roster, only five, Maxi Dietz, Richie Ledezma, Tim Tillman, Caleb Wiley, and Griffin Yow, have yet to appear on a #USMNT roster under Pochettino.

Comparing the 2025 Nations League provisional roster to the Gold Cup list reveals over a dozen different players, raising the question: are these minor differences simply the edges of the player pool Pochettino intends to draw from?

Goalkeepers 

Nine goalkeepers have been called into Pochettino’s camps, but it’s clear that Matt Freese is his first-choice right now, with Matt Turner likely the No. 2 as we sit just 10 months from the World Cup.

  • Chris Brady
  • Drake Callender
  • Roman Celentano
  • Matt Freese
  • Ethan Horvath
  • Jonathan Klinsmann
  • Diego Kochen
  • Patrick Schulte
  • Zack Steffen
  • Matt Turner

Fullbacks

Outside of Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson, the USMNT’s fullback depth remains a concern. Pochettino appears high on MLS defenders Alex Freeman and Max Arfsten, while Caleb Wiley, though yet to feature in a USMNT camp but named to recent provisional rosters, could still be on his depth chart.

  • Max Arfsten
  • Sergino Dest
  • Alex Freeman
  • Marlon Fossey
  • DeJuan Jones
  • Kristoffer Lund
  • Shaquell Moore
  • Antonee Robinson
  • Joe Scally
  • John Tolkin

Centerbacks

Center back remains another position with uncertain depth. Chris Richards and the veteran Tim Ream look like locks for now, leaving three spots up for grabs. If Pochettino opts for a back three, that tactical shift could influence which players ultimately make the cut. Notably, Jackson Ragen and Maxi Dietz are the only center backs from the recent provisional rosters who haven’t been called into a USMNT camp.

  • Noahkai Banks
  • Tristan Blackmon
  • George Campbell
  • Cameron Carter-Vickers
  • Mark McKenzie
  • Tim Ream
  • Chris Richards
  • Miles Robinson
  • Auston Trusty
  • Walker Zimmerman

Central Midfielders

The central midfield position is the deepest for the #USMNT, with many players in the pool capable of also playing fullback, center back, or winger. Although Richie Ledezma has primarily played as a right back and right wing-back for his current club and for PSV last season, USMNT coaches view him primarily as a midfielder. This likely explains why he hasn’t yet been called into a USMNT camp.

  • Tyler Adams
  • Sebastian Berhalter
  • Gianluca Busio
  • Johnny Cardoso
  • Ben Cremaschi
  • Luca de la Torre
  • Emeka Eneli
  • Jack McGlynn
  • Weston McKennie
  • Aidan Morris
  • Yunus Musah
  • Tanner Tessmann
  • Sean Zawadzki

Attacking Midfielders

There are several players at this position who could add real quality and play pivotal roles for the #USMNT at next summer’s World Cup. Gio Reyna remains a major question mark, but his talent is undeniable. With his recent club change, there’s hope he can return to the high level of form we’ve seen from him in the past.

  • Brenden Aaronson
  • Paxten Aaronson
  • Brian Gutiérrez
  • Djordje Mihailovic
  • Matko Miljevic
  • Gio Reyna
  • Malik Tillman

Wingers

The winger position remains thin for the #USMNT, though several players there can also slot in as attacking midfielders, strikers, or even fullback. Notably, two young wingers, Cole Campbell and Griffin Yow, appeared on provisional rosters but have yet to be called into any Pochettino camp.

  • Cade Cowell
  • Diego Luna
  • Christian Pulisic
  • Quinn Sullivan
  • Indiana Vassilev
  • Tim Weah
  • Haji Wright
  • Alejandro Zendejas

Strikers

Another area of concern for the USMNT is striker depth. While the top options have all produced well for their clubs when healthy, injuries have kept the pool thin. If everyone is fit, the primary competition for the starting role likely comes down to three players: Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Josh Sargent. Haji Wright and Tim Weah can also step in as center-forward options if needed.

  • Patrick Agyemang
  • Folarin Balogun
  • Damion Downs
  • Jesus Ferreira
  • Ricardo Pepi
  • Josh Sargent
  • Brandon Vazquez
  • Brian White

Conclusion

It’s tough to read Pochettino’s mindset right now. Many expect fewer MLS players to be called for the October window, partly because the league continues through FIFA dates and the regular season ends mid-October.

Most World Cup rosters largely select themselves, with only a few surprising omissions, think of the 1994 squad, which left out several players many felt deserved a spot.

But with Pochettino still showing a shaky grasp of the USMNT player pool, this cycle could produce more notable snubs than ever, though there’s still time for him to get it right.

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From Louisville to Lisbon: Joshua Wynder’s Journey with S.L. Benfica

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The current state of the USMNT has been at an all-time low since Couva in 2017.  One of the positions in dire situation is Center Back.  Tim Ream will be 38 by the time of the 2026 World Cup.  Chris Richards has too many highs and lows and has not shown his club form with the US.  Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty have yet to perform for the national team.  Miles Robinson, despite what many MLS fans want to believe, is not good enough and makes too many errors, like the second Turkish goal on June 7th, 2025.  Walker Zimmerman has one World Cup left in him and he has a history of making critical errors as well, like the penalty against Gareth Bale in the 2022 World Cup.  Lastly, Mark McKenzie has improved his game since his move to Toulouse, but he is lacking the deserved opportunities and a good partnership.

Our U20 CBs will need to be called up sooner rather than later, either before or immediately after the 2026 World Cup.  The top 3 prospects by fans and analysts are Noahkai Banks, Matai Akinmboni, and Joshua Wynder.  Of the three, Joshua Wynder is the oldest at 20 years old and is part of a club that is world-renowned for their development, S.L. Benfica.

How did Wynder manage to accomplish such a move from Louisville City in the USL Championship to Benfica?  To summarize, Wynder had a breakout season for Lou City at 17 years old in 2022, so much so that he was included in the US U20 World Cup team in 2023. 

LOUvOKC.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Wynder secured a spot to go on trial at Benfica and passed.  On June 8th, 2023, Benfica officially acquired Joshua Wynder from Lou City for a record-breaking $1.2 million transfer fee, which still stands today.

Louisville City FC, LOUvPIT.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Benfica registered Wynder with the second team for the 2023/2024 season, who participate in Liga Portugal 2.  Due to Portuguese rules (players play in the youth system until they are 19 years old), he spent the season with Benfica’s UEFA Youth League team and U23 team and only received 21 minutes with the B team until a season-ending injury.  What began as a promising start, with the support of the fans, was cut short after just six matches.  The following season went according to plan for Wynder.  Wynder became a consistent starter for the B team where he started in 29 matches and appeared in a total of 31 matches.  He also scored four goals, all headers from corners. 


His success with the B team made him a fan-favorite and several calls to be called up to the first team by fans on social media.  That day came on April 9th, 2025, when he made the team sheet for Benfica’s Taça de Portugal Semi-Final match against FC Tirsense.  Wynder made his first team debut when he was subbed in at the 76th minute mark of that match.  He made a following appearance on the bench for the first team in their second leg match against FC Tirsense.

As early as November 27, 2024, it was reported by Glorioso 1904 that Joshua Wynder had gained the attention of the Benfica manager, Bruno Lage.  The report further said that Wynder was becoming an option for the next season’s first team.  A similar report surfaced on March 25, 2025, by Record, in Portugal, that Wynder is on track to be with the first team for the 2025/2026 season.  That day may be coming sooner rather than later.  Joshua Wynder will be joining Benfica on their 2025 Club World Cup campaign.  This will be a true test for him to prove to Bruno Lage that he is ready to be part of the first team for the upcoming 2025/2026 Liga Portugal and UEFA Champions League season.  If he is given serious minutes with the first team and performs, Joshua Wynder needs to be considered for the 2026 World Cup or immediately following the World Cup.


Benfica is in Group C of the Club World Cup with Auckland City, Bayern München, and Boca Juniors.  Their first match is against Boca Juniors, 33-time Argentine champions, on June 16th.  Game two is on June 20th against 10-time New Zealander champions, Auckland City FC.  Lastly, their 3rd group stage match is against the 6-time UEFA Champions League winners, Bayern München, on June 24th.

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