USMNT
Grouped or Glory: Intro
Published
4 years agoon
The wait is nearly over. On November 20th, 2022, 4 years – and change – from a French triumph at Moscow, sport’s grandest stage returns. 32 performers – chosen from 205 entrants via arduous, multi-year, qualification tournaments – will enter Qatar, a venue enveloped in controversy, to grasp for glory before billions.
But before there is glory, there is the group stage. In its current format, first utilized in France at the 1998 edition – France’s first triumph at the Copa Mundial – the world cup opens with its 32 participants sorted into 8 groups of 4. In each group, 2 survive, and 2, do not.
With the groups set – at a ceremony watched by 1.6 million – a comprehensive look at the 32 contestants is overdue. We will chart each national team’s history, their journey to Qatar, their strengths, weaknesses, and anything else that might help us determine who is destined for glory, and who is set to get grouped.
Key Factors
Performance denotes how a national team has recently performed. For a loose estimation of “how good they have been”, we’ll use two metrics, FIFA Rankings, and Elo Ratings.
FIFA Rankings rank teams based on results. Teams get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. These points are then multiplied or divided based on various factors including recency, the type of competition the game took place in, and how good the opposing team is. FIFA Rankings are, relative to Elo Ratings, less reactive. They account for less factors, weigh competition type less, and don’t penalize knockout losses. This means they approximate longer stretches of “performance” than…
Elo Ratings are largely the basis for the current formula used for FIFA Rankings. They are similar to FIFA Rankings but have a few key differences. They factor in goal-difference – the margin of victory – when taking or giving points, weigh competition type more, and penalize teams for knockout losses. This makes them more reactive, meaning they approximate shorter stretches of “performance”.
Talent denotes how good the individual players on a national team are. For a loose estimation of “how good is this team on paper”, we’ll use two metrics, Transfermarkt Valuations(TMV), and – courtesy of redditor u/bl4klotus – World Cup Depth Chart Scores(WCDCS).
Transfermarkt Valuations are crowd-sourced estimates of player value. Valuations are derived from discussion and consensus as opposed to a formula. While subjective, they are taken seriously by those in the professional business of soccer. We’ll use the average TMV of each national team’s World Cup roster. As all players on a world cup roster influence the average, this ranking will skew towards depth.
World Cup Depth Chart Scores are averages based on my World Cup Positional Depth Chart, which guesses the most talented possible assortment of players that could start for each national team and then sorts everyone from that theoretical lineup into one of 5 tiers. As this average is only influenced by the best 11, it will skew towards stars.
Various other points will be considered, but these measures provide a baseline we can work off. Here’s how all 32 teams compare via these metrics:
Performance of World Cup Teams Talent of World Cup Teams
| No | FIFA | Rank | Elo | Rank | No | TMV | Rank | WCDCS | Rank |
| 1 | Brazil | 1 | Brazil | 1 | 1 | England | 1 | Brazil | T-1 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | Argentina | 2 | 2 | Brazil | 2 | Spain | T-1 |
| 3 | Argentina | 3 | Spain | 3 | 3 | France | 3 | France | 3 |
| 4 | France | 4 | Netherlands | 4 | 4 | Portugal | 4 | Germany | 4 |
| 5 | England | 5 | Belgium | 5 | 5 | Germany | 5 | Portugal | 5 |
| 6 | Spain | 7 | France | 6 | 6 | Spain | 6 | England | 6 |
| 7 | Netherlands | 8 | Portugal | 7 | 7 | Argentina | 7 | Belgium | 7 |
| 8 | Portugal | 9 | Denmark | 9 | 8 | Netherlands | 8 | Argentina | 8 |
| 9 | Denmark | 10 | Germany | 10 | 9 | Belgium | 9 | Netherlands | 9 |
| 10 | Germany | 11 | Uruguay | 11 | 10 | Uruguay | 10 | Croatia | 10 |
| 11 | Croatia | 12 | Switzerland | 12 | 11 | Croatia | 11 | Switzerland | 11 |
| 12 | Mexico | 13 | Croatia | 13 | 12 | Serbia | 12 | Uruguay | 12 |
| 13 | Uruguay | 14 | England | 14 | 13 | Denmark | 13 | Denmark | 13 |
| 14 | Switzerland | 15 | Serbia | 16 | 14 | Senegal | 14 | Senegal | 14 |
| 15 | United States | 16 | Ecuador | 18 | 15 | Switzerland | 15 | United States | 15 |
| 16 | Senegal | 18 | Iran | 21 | 16 | United States | 16 | Serbia | 16 |
| 17 | Wales | 19 | Mexico | 22 | 17 | Poland | 17 | Poland | 17 |
| 18 | Iran | 20 | Poland | 23 | 18 | Morocco | 18 | Mexico | 18 |
| 19 | Serbia | 21 | United States | T-24 | 19 | Ghana | 19 | Japan | 19 |
| 20 | Morocco | 22 | Japan | T-24 | 20 | Canada | 20 | Morocco | 20 |
| 21 | Japan | 24 | Wales | 26 | 21 | Mexico | 21 | South Korea | T-21 |
| 22 | Poland | 26 | South Korea | 28 | 22 | South Korea | 22 | Ghana | T-21 |
| 23 | South Korea | 28 | Canada | 29 | 23 | Wales | 23 | Wales | T-23 |
| 24 | Tunisia | 30 | Morocco | 32 | 24 | Cameroon | 24 | Ecuador | T-23 |
| 25 | Costa Rica | 31 | Costa Rica | 35 | 25 | Japan | 25 | Canada | T-25 |
| 26 | Australia | 38 | Australia | 39 | 26 | Tunisia | 26 | Cameroon | T-25 |
| 27 | Canada | 41 | Tunisia | T-43 | 27 | Iran | 27 | Costa Rica | 27 |
| 28 | Cameroon | 43 | Senegal | T-43 | 28 | Ecuador | 28 | Saudi Arabia | 28 |
| 29 | Ecuador | 44 | Qatar | 49 | 29 | Australia | 29 | Iran | 29 |
| 30 | Qatar | 50 | Saudi Arabia | 54 | 30 | Saudi Arabia | 30 | Tunisia | 30 |
| 31 | Saudi Arabia | 51 | Cameroon | 61 | 31 | Costa Rica | 31 | Australia | 31 |
| 32 | Ghana | 61 | Ghana | 74 | 32 | Qatar | 32 | Qatar | 32 |
Let’s begin.
Previews for each of the 8 groups will be released over the next week. We’ll start with Group A, and end with Group H.
Group Previews:
You may like
USMNT
The Next USMNT Star That Never Was: Revisiting America’s Biggest Teenage Prospects
Published
6 days agoon
September 25, 2026Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
With the next wave of highly rated teenagers likely to be brought into the #USMNT during the 2030 World Cup cycle, I decided to look back at some of the young players who were once hyped as the next stars of the U.S. Men’s National Team but never established themselves as regular internationals.
Freddy Adu would seem to be at the top of this list. While he never became a regular for the #USMNT or the world-class face of U.S. Soccer many expected, he still earned 17 caps, scoring 2 goals and adding 3 assists. In many ways, he accomplished more at the international level than most of the players who are listed below combined.
Which former USMNT prospects did I miss, players who are no longer playing or are past their prime, who deserve to be on this list?
Cody Cropper – GK – 0 caps
U.S. youth international and longtime goalkeeper prospect who reached the Southampton and MLS systems but never earned a senior cap.
Junior Flores – AM – 0 caps
Creative midfielder who joined Borussia Dortmund’s system as a teenager and was viewed as a major U.S. prospect, but never reached the senior USMNT.
Eddie Gaven – MF/W – 8 caps
Teenage MLS phenom who became a league standout, but despite eight USMNT appearances, his international career never developed further.
Luis Gil – AM – 2 caps
One of the most hyped American midfield prospects of his generation; debuted for RSL at 16 but never translated that promise into a sustained USMNT career.
Emerson Hyndman – MF – 2 caps
Highly rated central midfielder who broke through at Fulham and earned two USMNT appearances, but never established himself internationally.
Perry Kitchen – DM/CB – 5 caps
U.S. youth captain and defensive midfielder who became a regular MLS starter, but his senior international career stalled after five caps.
Will Packwood – CB/DM – 0 caps
Birmingham City prospect who became the youngest American to play in the English Championship, but injuries severely disrupted his development.
Marc Pelosi – LB/CB – 0 caps
Highly regarded defender who moved to Liverpool as a teenager, but injuries and limited senior opportunities derailed his path to the USMNT.
Gedion Zelalem – MF – 0 caps
Arsenal wonderkid and one of the most highly regarded U.S. prospects of his generation. Injuries and inconsistent senior opportunities slowed his development, and he never made a senior USMNT appearance.
The number of young USMNT players in this September/October window is something we haven’t seen in quite some time. Some will catch the eye of newly extended USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino, while others may not, but all of them have an opportunity during this cycle to make their case for World Cup qualifying and, ultimately, a spot on the 2026 World Cup roster.
It all starts now, and it should be fun to follow their development over the next four years.
USMNT
Building the Next Generation: Who Should Be on Pochettino’s USMNT Radar?
Published
1 month agoon
August 25, 2026Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
Header_NextGen
With the USMNT manager in place and the new cycle underway it’s time for recently extended Mauricio Pochettino to get some new young players on his radar and what better time to do this than the September/October double FIFA window.
There are several U-23 players like Josh Wynder, Jalen Neal, Rokas Pukstas, Diego Kochen, Jonathan Gomez, Caleb Wiley, Cole Campbell, Chris Brady, Gaga, Slonina, Niko Tsakiris, Damion Downs, and Benjamin Cremaschi who have no caps order less than a handful with the USMNT.
Will USMNT snubs or overlooked players opportunities be during the 2030 cycle look like? Players like Diego Luna, Tanner Tessmann, Aidan Morris and Camron Carter-Vickers to name a few, we have to wonder how or if they will be part of this cycle of players. I would suggest some will likely get the opportunity in the early part of the cycle but will need to be performing n with their club to remain getting called back into camps.
Integrating a few of these youth USMNT players during each window for the first half of the cycle will allow Pochettino to evaluate them up close and see if there might be a role for them during this next cycle.
It’s extremely important that the USMNT have a few on their current U-20 teenagers’ breakthrough and become a reliable part of the USMNT in the second half of the cycle.
The below players will have an opportunity to play in next years U-20 World Cup being hosted by Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan as well as hopefully if their clubs release them being part of the 2028 Olympics USA Football squad to hopefully medal for the first time since 1904 when the US had two teams win Silver and Bronze. I think it’s also important to look at these players alongside some of the core USMNT in the upcoming window to see how they can integrate with one another.
Mathis Albert-17-Winger
Noahkai Banks-19-Centerback
Cole Campbell-20-Midfielder/Winger
Zavier Gozo-19-Winger
Julian Hall-18-Winger
Malik Jakupovic-17-Striker
Adri Mehmeti-17-Central Midfielder
Peyton Miller-18-Left Midfielder/Winger
Neil Pierre-18-Centerback
Cavan Sullivan-16-Attacking Midfielder
Whether we see all of these players, or just a handful, through the first half of the cycle, hopefully leading into another Copa América appearance, it’s clear that the time has come for Pochettino to begin integrating the next generation of USMNT players into the senior pool. How quickly that transition happens will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow.
USMNT
Mauricio Cuevas Taking “Huge Step Forward” in Liga MX
Published
2 months agoon
August 9, 2026CHICAGO — Four years on from captaining the United States to their last CONCACAF Under-20 title, Mauricio Cuevas is quietly stepping back into the spotlight. Still only 23 years old, the talented right back just moved abroad, leaving his boyhood Los Angeles Galaxy for Liga MX side Santos Laguna in a summer move that slipped under the radar.
“To be able to get sold to a big club like Santos is a huge step forward for me,” Cuevas said in an exclusive interview this Saturday. “From the first day, I knew the challenge coming into it because the club hasn’t been meeting expectations in the past few years. Coming in and trying to be a difference-maker is something that I wanted. It’s a new challenge for me, and overall I’m just super excited.”
New Challenge in Mexico
As a teenager, Cuevas showcased himself as one of the country’s most exciting young fullbacks. Known for his technical prowess and set piece ability, the L.A. area native spent time at Belgium’s Club Brugge before returning to the Galaxy in 2023. There, he won an MLS Cup in 2024, appearing 78 times in total before his departure this summer.
“It’s always tough leaving home,” Cuevas said. “Obviously, it’s my boyhood club. My family still lives there, and I was great with all the guys at the club as well. I knew everybody, from the staff and the front office to the coaches. It’s never easy when you’re leaving home.”
“Honestly, the people in Torreón and Santos have all welcomed me with open arms since the first day. They’re all amazing people. It’s an amazing club and an amazing city.”
The move to Liga MX made sense from a number of angles; Santos manager Renato Paiva wanted a new right back, Cuevas’s Galaxy contract was winding down, and his Mexican passport made a move south of the border quite easy. Since joining, Santos have faced an extremely difficult run of games against CF Monterrey, Atlas, Club América, and New York City FC — all of which Cuevas started.
“It’s been great, to be honest,” Cuevas said of his adjustment to life in Torreón. “There hasn’t been much of an adjustment tactics-wise or playing-wise because Renato, our head coach, has similar concepts to what we had at the Galaxy. The players are really good as well. There’s so much quality on the team.”
“The only thing I’ve probably had to get adjusted to is the weather. It’s a little too hot out there, the sun is beaming a lot. But I love it, man. It’s a super-calm city. It’s beautiful, with great food and great people.”
Back in the U.S.
The game against NYCFC came in Leagues Cup, a competition with a razor-thin margin for error. To advance past the first round, teams ideally need to earn at least seven points from their three matches; after losing to New York City, qualification for the knockout rounds is now nearly impossible for Santos. They’ll face Gregg Berhalter, Robert Lewandowski, and the Chicago Fire on Sunday (8 p.m. Eastern Time on Apple TV) in a game where anything but a win in 90 minutes would certainly eliminate them.
“I think we go into every game with the belief that every game is a must-win for us, so that doesn’t really change much. We know now that there’s more on top of that, we have even more reason to win. We’re just focused on ourselves tomorrow. We had a long travel day yesterday, so it’s all about recovery now and setting a game plan that puts us in the best position to win.”
Having started against the Fire at Soldier Field in 2024 and facing former youth national team teammates Chris Brady and Sergio Oregel, Cuevas will hope to give something extra in this game and help keep Santos alive in the tournament.
“Any tournament that this club steps into, we always have that goal in mind of wanting to bring that trophy back to Mexico, back to Torreón with us. We’re a competitive club. We’re one of the best clubs, history-wise, in Mexico, so we know what this badge carries.”
USYNT Hero
Coincidentally enough, the U.S. U-20s advanced to a fifth consecutive CONCACAF final on Friday, setting up a date with hosts Mexico at Estadio Azteca on Sunday. The semifinal win also qualified the U.S. for next year’s Pan American Games in Lima, ensuring qualification for back-to-back editions.
In addition to being a central figure in the last U.S. U-20 CONCACAF victory in 2022, Cuevas was part of the last Pan Am Games team in 2023; the U.S. finished fourth in an unusual competition that included several intriguing names like Sergio Oregel, Brooklyn Raines, Danny Leyva, and a then-relatively unknown Alex Freeman. For Cuevas, that tournament was a special memory, and one he remembers fondly.
“I remember the whole trip, to be honest. I made a lot of great friends and met a lot of great people on and off the field, from the staff to the players – people I’m still in contact with. There are some that are in Liga MX as well, Nico (Carrera), Antonio (Carrera), Danny (Leyva).”
“Every player from that age group and that camp has been doing great. It’s lovely to see, to be honest, seeing everybody shine.”
On the immediate horizon for the U.S. is Sunday’s U-20 final (6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on FS2). The Americans will be hoping that this year’s final is more reminiscent of Cuevas’ age group (a 6-0 final win over the Dominican Republic) than the 2024 edition (a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Mexico). As is often the case, the U.S. and Mexico will be without many of their top youth players for the tournament due to its concurrence with club games, but that has opened the door for others.
“We have two players from (Santos) that are representing Mexico, so congrats to them,” Cuevas said. “Huge shout out to (LA Galaxy’s) Ruben Ramos as well and Dylan Vanney, who are with the U.S.; they’ve been killing it. I’m just happy for all those guys. Proud of those guys.”
The Next USMNT Star That Never Was: Revisiting America’s Biggest Teenage Prospects
Building the Next Generation: Who Should Be on Pochettino’s USMNT Radar?
Mauricio Cuevas Taking “Huge Step Forward” in Liga MX
Trending
- Club News6 years ago
CJ dos Santos, Benfica
- USMNT2 years ago
Gregg Berhalter’s Legacy
- Club News6 years ago
Give: Support Chasing a Cup by Supporting our Cause
- USMNT2 years ago
Medals on their Minds
- Club News7 years ago
Julian Vincente Araujo
- Club News2 years ago
American Transfers: Stock Up & Stock Down
- USMNT3 years ago
USMNT Kits Come in Different Styles and Colors
- USMNT4 years ago
World Cup Format History