USMNT
GROUPED OR GLORY: GROUP B
England | Elo: 14 | FIFA: 5 |
History: And now we pay homage to the home of soccer. While a similar sport found popularity in Ancient China, the “Association football” we know and love originated as one of many types of “football” played by school-children in public schools across England. A comprehensive set of laws regarding “assoccer” – shorthand for “association”, longhand for “soccer” – were codified with the formation of the Football Association(FA) in 1863. While the name didn’t stick, in England anyway, that set of laws – simply referred to as The Laws of the Game – still largely define the football that’s played today.The English National team was formed soon after, becoming, alongside Scotland, the oldest national team in the world.
In 1870, a team of Englishmen played a Scottish team largely consisting of london-born Scots to a 0-0 draw in the world’s first unofficial international friendly. The world’s first official friendly was the return tie held in 1872; England won.
For the next 40 years England would exclusively play Scotland, Ireland, and Wales in the British Home Championship, an annual tournament between the four national teams in the United Kingdom. The Three Lions finished second to Scotland in the tournament’s first four iterations. After trading gold with the Scots in 1888 and 1889, England managed their own 4-peat between 90 and 93.
The Brits ventured beyond the isles in 1908, beating Austria, Hungary, and Bohemia. England wouldn’t experience defeat outside their island until 1929 with a 3-2 loss to Spain. A year before, the FA withdrew from FIFA after feuding over amateurs, meaning England wouldn’t participate in the first three World Cups. They would participate in the Battle of Highbury, defeating Italy – the defending Jules Rimet holders – 3-2 in a match with more than soccer at stake. England beat facism again In 1938… after being forced to appease Hitler.
In the aftermath of the second World War, the FA made up with FIFA and England qualified for the 1950 World Cup via a top 2 finish in the 49-50 Home Championship. Coming off two wins against facism in the 30’s, the Brits punctuated the 40’s with empathic victories over Italy – still champs – and Portugal, entering the 1950 Copa de Mundial as overwhelming favorites. Sure, they were technically debutants, but for most of the sport’s history, as of 1950, the Home Nations, particularly England and Scotland, had been in a league of their own. England just couldn’t lose. And yet they did. Twice. The write-in champs bowed out in round one. And thus the dye was cast. Football did come home in 66, but the wait for its return has been long, and often painful.
Enter Southgate. On the back of another golden generation highlighted by a number of world class footballers, The Three Lions have reached nigh-unprecedented highs. In 2018, England came within 30 minutes of the World Cup Final. In 2021, they reached the final of the European Championship. Can Southgate’s men build off these near-misses with a triumph in Lusail? Or will that hope kill?
Once more The Three Lions enter the colosseum. Once more, England expects. But will the lions roar.. or whimper? The world will soon see.
Expected Finish: 1st
Why?
Ranking 1st per TMV, and 6th per WCDCS, England have a claim as the most talented team on the planet. And while the Lions have plenty of questions, their three groupmates, all substantially less talented and vastly less accomplished, enter with questions of their own.
The nations league went badly, but most of these games weren’t played with a full-strength side.
With a group of elite players, who’ve thrived in multiple major tournaments, entering their prime, the Lions are hard to pick against; at least in round one.
Why not?
They ended the recent Nations league with a loss and a dead-rubber draw. Both featured what could be characterized as England’s “a team”. Before the dead-rubber, England scored once in 5. Harry Kane started all but one of those matches.
While Southgate has been superficially successful, a closer look at his work reveals that favorable draws have papered over significant underperformance. Gifted a collection of creative attackers, Southgate has prioritized defensive solidity. Forcing round pegs into square holes has proven costly.
While I think they may be able to brute-talent this group, it’s unlikely they get much further.
Key Players
Besides being one of the best players on the planet, Harry Kane is obviously England’s best talisman. Kane has led the premier league in scoring thrice in the last 6 years. In the last world cup, Kane bagged 5 to nab the Golden Boot. But lost in Kane’s prowess as a scorer, is his powers as a playmaker. In 2021, Kane led the premier league in goals and assists. Harry is a phenomenal playmaker, able to create from range and tight spaces. It was Kane’s playmaking that allowed England to dominate early proceedings against the Italians last May. The Tottenham forward is the centerpiece of England’s offense, even if he doesn’t end up bagging all their goals.
Jude Bellingham might not start, but it’s obvious that he should. At 19, Jude is already a world-class playmaker and ball-progressor, as well as a strong defender, presser, and scoring threat. If there is a soccer equivalent to a 5-tool-player, Jude Bellingham might be it. On a team that has struggled mightily to create in recent outings, Southgate’s ability, and willingness, to get the best out of England’s best midfielder may well determine if this team has any hope of hoisting the Jules Rimiet.
USA | Elo: 15 | FIFA: 21 |
History: Enter The Stars and Stripes. 3rd place finishers in 1930, the only team outside of Europe and S.A to reach a major final on neutral ground, and one of two Concacaf teams to reach the quarterfinals since the World Cup expanded to a full 32, the United States Men’s National Team(USMNT) is the second most successful national team outside of Europe and South America; not a bad resume, but for the world’s preeminent superpower – for better or for worse – that feels a bit disappointing.
The USMNT is one of the world’s oldest national teams. A 1-0 loss to Canada in 1885 marked the first international friendly outside of the British Isles. They rode this head-start to modest success, finishing 3rd at the Maiden World Cup in 1930, beating Mexico to qualify for 1934, and pulling off, per Elo, the 7th biggest upset in the history of international soccer, thereby eliminating an English behemoth; the US still crashed out, courtesy of a Chilean trashing.
After the Second World War, the program hit a 40-year lull. In the three decades after the 50 World Cup win, the USMNT only managed a handful of victories. Despite early international success, and the creation of a relatively popular domestic league, the American public showed little interest in America’s team.
Ironically, it was the domestic league’s collapse which helped resurrect US soccer. In the absence of a professional league at home, Americans like Paul Caligari were forced to push themselves abroad; thus the US entered the 86 cycle with talent at its disposal.
With quality in its ranks, the USMNT entered the last match of the 86 qualification tournament only requiring a tie to qualify. They would lose, via an early own goal, but that near-miss, along with the commercial potential of bringing football to a populous superpower, was enough for The Yanks to be named hosts for the 94 World Cup. Given the Americans’ inability to qualify by the merit of their play, the decision sparked outrage. But a year later, the USMNT earned qualification for the 90 tournament, thanks to a long-range finish from… Paul Caligari. While they went point-less in Italy, they’d shock Colombia 4 years later to reach the second round for the first time in more than a century. The World Cup was also a massive commercial success, laying the foundation for a sustainable domestic league, and serious nation-wide investment in the sport.
Using this base, the USMNT leveled up in the next 20 years, reaching two Copa America semi-finals, usually making the World Cup round of sixteen, and almost always qualifying. Regionally they improved, splitting cups with Mexico, and winning the Hex – the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying between 1997 and 2018 – three times on the trot.
But as the 2000’s turned into the 2010’s, the program stagnated. With each step forward, there was a step back. A quarter final run in 2002 was followed by a group stage exit in 2006. A victory against invincible Spain was wasted with a comeback loss against Brazil. The Yanks won a group with England only to blow a favorable path to the semis. Donovan’s men simply didn’t have the quality to win consistently, and after Donovan’s departure, it all fell apart. Yet, amidst this mediocrity, seeds were planted for something greater.
And thus, enters the golden generation. Following a glorious summer, and an arduous spring, The Stars and Stripes enter winter with hopes sky-high.
Will 2022 mark a new beginning? Or will it teach yet another lesson in patience.
Expected Finish: 2nd
Why?
They are the second most talented team, ranking top 16 in both TMV and WCDCS. Their form is about as strong as their group mates, with a marginal advantage in FIFA, and a marginal disadvantage in Elo. They enter Qatar with their key pieces healthy and mostly in-form, and have the second youngest squad in the tourney. It’s not hard to see them outlast older competition in what looks to be one of the hottest World Cups.
Looking to history, a substantially less talented generation of Americans were usually able to find a way out. They also currently have a strong claim as the best team in CONCACAF, a mantle which usually predicts surviving round one.
There are questions, but this is true for all of their group mates. The American case isn’t overwhelming, but the counterpoints don’t seem particularly strong.
Why not?
Well for one, manager Gregg Berhalter may not have his priorities sorted. Is Gregg’s aim to win or to change the way the world views American soccer by playing a more aesthetically pleasing brand of footy? Coming off a pair of poor friendly performances in September, it’s not clear those two aims can coexist peacefully.
The US has also been disappointing away from the comforts of home. They have one competitive away victory this cycle. Including friendlies, they are winless against World Cup teams away or on neutral ground.
They are also relatively inexperienced. Yedlin is the only player on the squad who has played in a world cup and the Inter Miami full-back is unlikely to see serious minutes
The position of center-back remains a big question. The best two available center-backs, Zimmerman and Ream, have not played many minutes together. For a team that usually likes to play a high-line, Ream may not be an optimal fit. With incumbents Richard and Robinson injured, there aren’t quality options who’ve recently been integrated into the side.
The US generally seem at their best playing in transition. This might prove a problem with two group-mates who are likely to sit back and force the US to do something with the ball. Thus far, this cycle, the US have struggled with low-blocks.
And while it is true the USMNT historically have done alright at this stage, it’s not clear that was ever sustainable. 2010 is the only World Cup where the USMNT out-created most of their opponents. While this side has more outfield talent, they don’t have quality keepers like Howard or Friedel to level the playing field.
While I favor them to finish 2nd, a last-place finish wouldn’t surprise me.
Key Players
Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson has been very good in the Premier League. He’s also essential both as a ball-progressor, and chance creator for the way Berhalter likes to play. Antonee Robinson is also the only natural left-back on the USMNT’s roster. An elite 1 v 1 defender, a fast ball-progressor, and a strong crosser, Antonee Robinson’s style of play is simple, but effective. Bought for 13 Million in 2020 by AC Milan, Antonee Robinson has developed into the US’s least replaceable piece.
Brenden Aaronson is quite good. In 21-22, he played every minute for Salzburg as they became the first Austrian team to ever reach the knockout stage of the Champions League. In 22-23 he’s been the centerpiece for a Leeds side overperforming modest resources. With 1 goal and 2 assists, Aaronson may not seem a remarkable attacker, but a closer look may prove revealing. 5 of Leeds goals have come off Aaronson pressure. And while it didn’t show up in the score-sheet, not many Americans have taken out 5 defenders on the dribble. Aaronson does a fair bit on the other end, being among the league leaders in pressures completed, duels won, and ground covered. A capable creator and progressor with an unrivaled engine, Aaronson can be pretty valuable. He’s especially valuable against big teams. All three of his g/a came against Chelsea and Tottenham. His two assists were a small part of what many found impressive against Bayern, and against Liverpool, it was his pressing that led to both of Leed’s goals in a massive win against at Anfield. With a plethora of quality options in attack, Aaronson is not essential for this team to advance. But if they look to do something more, Brenden may define this team’s ceiling.
Iran | Elo: 21 | FIFA: 20 |
History: Do not sleep on Team Melli. Paired with Spain, Portugal, and Morocco in 2018, Iran were this close to advancing. Qatar will mark Iran’s 6th World Cup. The Persian Stars will be desperate to avoid a 6th group stage exit.
The Iranian Football Federation(IFF) was founded in 1920. In 1926 the IFF formed the Tehran XI, an Iranian team with players picked from various Iranian clubs. In 1941 Tehran Xi became Team Melli and beat British India 1-0. Later that year, Team Melli became Iran, playing Afghanistan to a goalless draw. In 1968, Iran hosted the Asian Cup. Their debut went perfectly, with 4 wins in 4 matches making The Honour of Persia, the Champions of Asia. In 72 they would go to Thailand, and again things went perfectly. Iran would win 5 of 5 games to win a second straight championship. Iran would host again in 76. And again, they were perfect. With 4 wins in 4, Iran completed a stretch of continental dominance that never has, and maybe never will, be replicated.
Iran’s first venture into World Cup Qualification came in 1974, at a time where only one spot was allocated for all of Asia and all of Oceania. Iran would win an all-Asian group to enter a playoff with Australia. With a 3-0 loss away, and a 2-0 win at home, Iran bowed out as Australia went on to qualify. In 78 Iran were dominant, cruising to their first World Cup with a record of 10 wins, including 2 victories over the Aussies, and 2 draws. Iran were quickly eliminated from the tournament proper with losses to the Netherlands and Peru, but they’d go home with a point from a surprise tie with Scotland. Then, came revolution.
Conflict and unrest would sideline Iranian soccer until 1989 when Team Melli returned to AFC qualification for the 1990 finals. Needing to win their group to progress The Persian Stars won 5 of 6 matches, but finished 2nd on goal-difference to China. In 1994 they went undefeated in round one to reach the final round of qualifying. With two World Cup berths up for grab, Iran finished 2 points shy of 2nd place South Korea. In 98, Iran went undefeated, again, to make the final round. There, a second place set them up for a playoff vs Japan. The winner would reach the World Cup while the loser would be sent to a final playoff. Japan found a winner in the 118th minute, sending Iran to an intercontinental playoff with… Australia. In the rematch of the 74 AFC-OFC playoff, Iran emerged victorious.
At the finals, Iran would emerge victorious again in a match that meant a little more than 3 points. Losses to Germany and Yugoslavia would eliminate Team Melli anyway, but Iran had finally won.
In 2002, Iran lost an intercontinental playoff to Northern Ireland, In 2006 they qualified before exiting with a solitary point, and in 2010, they made neither the finals, nor a playoff, finishing second to last in the final round Qualification.
And then, came Carlos Quieroz, fresh off a stint with Real Madrid. Inheriting a team traditionally slanted for attack, Quieroz prioritized defense. The result was transformational. Iran didn’t just qualify in 2014, they cruised, topping a group with South Korea after losing just 3 of 14 matches. While a loss to Bosnia eliminated them from the finals, Iran showed well against African champion Nigeria, and eventual runner-ups Argentina.
The IFF nearly lost Quieroz to sheer incompetence, but the Madrid magician returned and 2018 went even better. Iran went undefeated in 18 qualifiers putting up a continent best 22 points in the final round. They opened the group stage with their second ever World Cup win before putting forth valiant efforts in 1 goal loss to Spain and a tie against the Portuguese. While they were narrowly eliminated in the group of death, no one could deny that Quieroz had built something special.
Quieroz resigned for the 2022 cycle, but his machine kept rolling. After a couple shock losses in the first round of qualifying, Dragan Skokic righted the ship. Putting together a continent high 25 points in the final round, Iran qualified easily, only losing a dead-rubber against South Korea.
And so, on the crest of a rising tide, Iran enters their third straight World Cup. The old magician is back, their star man is shining, and controversy abounds.
Can Team Melli finally break through?
Expected Finish: 4th
Why?
Originally I had them 3rd. Then they fired their reasonably successful coach. Then their second best player got hurt. And now there are various distractions. I have no issue with political activism in sport, but combined, these conditions don’t seem conducive to optimal performance in high-stake tournament soccer.
Iran are the least talented team in their group. Frankly, they’re one of the least talented teams in the tournament. One of their two stars will, at best, be limited, and there is plenty of reason to think the team won’t be playing at their best.
Maybe Carlos can bring it together, but this is a big ask.
Why not?
Besides England, Iran are the most experienced team in Group B. They also performed well four years ago in a tougher group with a weaker set of players.
Iran are also, arguably, the second most in-form team, pairing a dominant qualification campaign with some decent friendly results for a top 20 ranking in Elo and FIFA.
Iran could definitely surprise, but I have a few too many questions to pick them.
Key Players
In 2022-2023, Mehdi Taremi has 5 goals and 2 assists in 5 champions league matches to go along with 6 goals and 5 assists in 13 outings in Liga Portugal. Moreover, the underlying data suggests that this production is sustainable and therefore predictive. Mehdi’s production has certainly translated with the national team with Taremi putting up 7 goals and 5 assists in 13 Asian qualifiers. An elite chance creator, scoring threat, and ball-progressor, Mehdi Taremi is one of Group B’s stars and is Iran’s best player. If Taremi can produce for his country as he has produced at the highest levels of Europe, Iran has every chance to advance.
Sardar Azmoun has 41 goals in 65 caps. While Azmoun has struggled for goals, and minutes, at Leverkusen, he’s been Iran’s main talisman internationally, scoring 10 times in 14 qualifiers to help The Persian Stars reach Qatar. It’s unclear what Sardar can offer Iran as he’s rushed back to fitness, but a healthy Azmoun would make Quieroz’s job significantly easier.
Wales | Elo: 26 | FIFA: 19 |
History: At long last, The Dragons have arrived. In 1958, they were World Cup quarter-finalists. Now, 64 years later, Wales makes its return.
In 1876, the Welsh faced the Scots for Wales’ first ever friendly. They would lose the game, badly, but would win the sweet consolation prize of being the third oldest national team in the world. A year later they would play the Scots again… and lose. They’d try yet again in 1878… and lose… by 9. The Football Association of Wales(FAW) decided they’d try England instead. William Davies scored Wales’ first ever goal and the Welsh lost by a respectable margin of 2-1. In 1880, perhaps buoyed by nearly erasing a 3-goal deficit in a 3-2 loss to England, Wales decided to try Scotland again; they lost 5-1.
At long last, in 1881, after the FAW smartly switched back to the Brits, a John Vaughan strike gave the Welsh their first victory. In 1882, the Irish national team was formed, and the Welsh took the chance to orientate them with a beat-down. With consecutive victories under their belt, the Welsh faced England a month later. Wales went a goal down, went a man down, then came back to beat the Brits 5-3.
With the advent of the British Home Championship in 1884, the natural pecking order was restored. Over the first three championships, Wales beat Ireland to avoid 4th, while going winless against England and Scotland to go 3rd. Then in 87, The Dragons flipped the script, losing 4-1 to Ireland to finish last. Finally, in 1895, by tying all their fixtures, Wales finished 2nd.
In 1905, Wales finally beat Scotland, thereby managing their second 2nd place finish. In 1907, the Welsh won it all, beating Scotland, beating Ireland, and tying England to win their first gold. When the tournament ended in 1987, Wales ended up with 12 gold medals. England and Scotland picked up 54 and 41 respectively, and Ireland finished with 8.
With the FA rejoining FIFA in 1946, Wales became eligible for participation in the 1950 World Cup. To qualify they would need a top two finish in the 1949-50 Home Championship. Losses to England and Scotland consigned Wales to 3rd. Wales would finish last in the 1953-54 championship, once again missing the World Cup. In 1958, the British Home Championship was dropped as a means of qualification. Instead Wales would be randomly drawn against other teams in Europe.
With an emerging golden generation under the stewardship of Jimmy Murphy and a qualification path that avoided perennial bullies England and Scotland, Wales looked set for a first World Cup appearance. Yet The Dragons came up short once more, finishing 2nd in a group with Czechoslovakia and West Germany. But fortune favored the Welsh, and a series of withdrawals set-up Wales with a second chance: An inter-continental playoff against Israel. The Dragons soared, comfortably beating Israel home and away. At the tournament proper, Wales conjured the magic of 1895, finishing 2nd in their group by tying all their group-mates. In round two, they faced Brazil. Even in defeat, the Welsh accounted for themselves well, losing by one to a team that would bash France and Sweden en route to their first World Cup victory. It would take the Welsh a while to get back.
Wales failed to qualify for the first four European Championships. When they reached the Euros in 1976, they surprised, making the quarterfinals. Perhaps their most notable accomplishment during this period was splitting spoils with England – then World Cup holders – in the 1970 Home Championship.
The Welsh came close to World Cup qualification in 1982, missing out on goal difference thanks to a 3-0 defeat by Soviet hands. 4 years later, despite a romp over the Spaniards, a 1-1 draw – marred by tragedy – meant that Wales missed out on goal difference again. Continuing a long-line of agonizingly close misses, The Dragons came within a penalty kick of the World Cup in 1994 and lost a playoff for a spot the 2006 Euros.
Enter Gareth Bale. With an emerging cluster of talent spearheaded by a world-class attacker, the world’s third oldest national team entered a new golden age. The Welsh easily qualified for the 2016 Euros where they’d make an unlikely run to the semi-finals. Wales would qualify for the 2021 Euros, marking the first time The Dragons have reached consecutive major tournaments. Then, on the back of their brilliant, if fading, talisman, Wales reached Qatar.
And so arrive The Dragons. In a sport defined by expectation, this Diamond Generation has indisputably delivered. Win, lose, or draw, Qatar will be a celebration, commemorating a return that redeems decades of heart-ache. The Welsh will play with house money.
So just how far can they go?
Expected Finish: 3rd
Why?
Wales are the third most talented team in their group, have not impressed with recent results, and their aging superstar has struggled mightily in a 2nd tier league.
European teams historically perform worse in hotter climates, and there are already early signs that Wales might wilt in the Qatari heat.
Wales could certainly surprise, but it’s hard to see them as favorites.
Why not?
Gareth Bale is often a different man when he plays for his country. And whatever you thought of Bale during the Major League Soccer(MLS) regular season, when the time came to win, Gareth delivered.
Wales, unlike the USMNT, have a clear identity they’ve played with for years. With fast wingers and Gareth Bale, it’s not hard to see the Welsh punishing an American centerback partnership which has barely played together, or, depending on who Berhalter chooses to start, is demonstrably error-prone.
With Azmoun still hurt, Iran is likely going to be relying heavily on a single attacker for offense. Considering that Wales have, arguably, the second best center-back pairing in group B, The Dragons may well be able to neutralize Team Melli.
Maybe that isn’t enough, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bale and co. proved me wrong.
Key Players
Having bagged all 3 of Wales’ goals during the UEFA qualification playoffs, Gareth Bale is still Wales’ most dangerous magician. A 5-times Champions League winner, as well as a 1x MLS Cup Champion, the former Tottenham superstar may just buy The Dragons a ticket to round 2.
Daniel James is fast. A regular player for a Fulham team holding up surprisingly well in the Premier League, James’ ability to make probing runs, outpace defenders, and arrive at dangerous spots, may prove vital for a Wales team that doesn’t like using the ball. With pace, defensive chops, and a nose for goal, James might break a few hearts in Qatar.
Predicted Group Standings
| 1 | England |
| 2 | United States |
| 3 | Wales |
| 4 | Iran |
For more info on the methodology click here.
Group Previews:
USMNT
Breaking the Mold: Freese a Unique USMNT Goalkeeper
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
With only the March window left before Mauricio Pochettino finalizes the 2026 World Cup roster, one major question remains: who can truly be trusted to guard the net? It’s a debate still dividing media, fans, and observers alike.
The USMNT has produced some legendary goalkeepers over the past four decades, but the current pool has yet to see anyone truly seize the No. 1 spot. For a while, it looked like Matt Turner might start in back-to-back World Cups, but after a poor summer performance against Switzerland, he lost his place to Matt Freese. Freese went on to start the last thirteen matches, yet outside of his heroics in the 2025 Gold Cup penalty shootout, echoing Turner’s run in 2023, Freese hasn’t fully convinced me he should be the starter at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Since the 1990 cycle, five USMNT goalkeepers, Tony Meola, Kasey Keller, Brad Friedel, Tim Howard, and Matt Turner, have earned the World Cup starting role. Each of them logged minutes in the grueling World Cup qualifying process before taking the job. But Matt Freese could become the first USMNT goalkeeper to start a World Cup without ever playing a single qualifier.
Tony Meola – 1990 Italy World Cup
Creator: Bob Thomas | Credit: Getty Images
Tony Meola remains the youngest goalkeeper ever to start a World Cup for the USMNT. He went on to start in back-to-back tournaments and later served as the backup at the 2002 World Cup alongside Brad Friedel and Kasey Keller.
First Cap (Age) – June 7, 1998 (19 years, 3 month & 17 days)
World Cup 1990 (Age) – (21 years, 3 months, 10 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 17
Matches Started – 15
Minutes Played – 1,395
Wins – 7
Shutouts – 6
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – 4
Matches Started – 4
Minutes Played – 360
Wins – 2
Shutouts – 4
Kasey Keller – 1998 France World Cup
Kasey Keller, one of the backups to Tony Meola at the 1990 World Cup, was left off the 1994 roster but later reestablished himself in the USMNT picture. He went on to become the primary starter for the 1998 and 2006 World Cups and served as the backup on the 2002 team.
Creator: Ben Radford | Credit: Getty Images
First Cap (Age) – February 4, 1990 (20 years, 2 months & 6 days)
World Cup 1998 (Age) – (28 years, 6 months, 15 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 34
Matches Started – 33
Minutes Played – 2,790
Wins – 18
Shutouts – 16
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – 9
Matches Started – 9
Minutes Played – 810
Wins – 5
Shutouts – 6
Brad Friedel – 2002 Korea/Japan World Cup
Creator: Clive Brunskill | Credit: Getty Images
Brad Friedel, who started all five U.S. matches at the 2002 World Cup and made one start in 1998, earned a place on three USMNT World Cup squads during his career.
First Cap (Age) – September 3, 1992 (21 years, 3 months, 16 days)
World Cup 2002 (Age) – (31 years, 0 months, 5 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 76
Matches Started – 74
Minutes Played – 6,453
Wins – 25
Shutouts – 23
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – 13
Matches Started – 13
Minutes Played – 1,125
Wins – 7
Shutouts – 4
Tim Howard – 2010 South Africa
Creator: Ronald Wittek | Credit: Alamy
Tim Howard, the oldest first-time World Cup starter among this group, may also be the most accomplished. He appeared on three World Cup rosters, and likely would have made a fourth had the USMNT qualified in 2018.
First Cap (Age) – March 10, 2002 (23 years, 0 months, 4 days)
World Cup 2010 (Age) – (31 years, 3 months, 12 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 51
Matches Started – 50
Minutes Played – 4,185
Wins – 31
Shutouts – 23
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – 16
Matches Started – 16
Minutes Played – 1,440
Wins – 12
Shutouts – 8
Matt Turner – 2022 Qatar
Creator: Francisco Seco | Credit: AP
Turner seized his opportunity when an unwell Zack Steffen was forced off the roster to start the World Cup qualifying, stepping in to start the first of eight World Cup qualifiers. His performances solidified his place as the USMNT’s starting goalkeeper for the 2022 World Cup.
First Cap (Age) – January 31, 2021 (26 years, 9 months, 3 days)
World Cup 2022 (Age) – (28 years, 4 months, 21 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 20
Matches Started – 20
Minutes Played – 1,800
Wins – 14
Shutouts – 14
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – 8
Matches Started – 8
Minutes Played – 720
Wins – 4
Shutouts – 4
Matt Freese
Courtesy USMNT
Matt Freese would have the shortest runway of any USMNT goalkeeper, from earning his first cap to potentially starting at a World Cup. He would also become the first U.S. keeper to start at a World Cup without having played a single World Cup qualifier.
First Cap (Age) – June 5, 2025 (26 years, 9 months, 3 days)
World Cup 2026 (Age) – (27 years, 9 months, 12 days)
Overall Stats heading into the World Cup
Matches Played – 13
Matches Started – 13
Minutes Played – 1,170
Wins – 7*
Shutouts – 3*
World Cup Qualifying Stats
Matches Played – n/a
Matches Started – n/a
Minutes Played – n/a
Wins – n/a
Shutouts – n/a
It’s clear the USMNT doesn’t have a true front-runner in goal even though Mauricio Pochettino currently leans toward Matt Freese, but as we’ve seen, things can change fast. Matt Turner, Patrick Schulte, Chris Brady, Roman Celentano, and Jonathan Klinsmann will all need to push hard to earn their place on the final roster.
USMNT
2025 Summer Transfer Window Review
Last year, I wrote a stock-up/stock-down article covering ten Americans who either made a move to Europe or to the U.S. We are closing in on New Year’s and about 6 months until the World Cup (June 11th, 2026), giving us enough data to know if these transfers have been beneficial not just for the players’ club careers, but to make it onto the USMNT for the World Cup. As American soccer players, this season is the most important season of their international career. The players are making one last argument for them to be at a USMNT camp and be part of the team when the United States of America co-hosts the FIFA World Cup. So far, a lot of the European transfers have not gone so well, compared to the domestic transfers.
*All information is up to date as of December 1st, 2025.
Yunus Musah to Atalanta (loan)- Stocks Down
When Massimiliano Allegri took over AC Milan, he cleaned house. Twenty-four players were permanently transferred out of the club or sent on loan (some for positive reasons and others, not so much). Yunus Musah happened to be one of those 24 players. AC Milan sent Musah on loan to fellow Serie A club, Atalanta, with an option to buy that is worth $28 million. As things stand, it does not look like Atalanta will trigger their buy option at the end of the season. Musah has only one start and has appeared in 9 matches (a total of 203 minutes) while being available for a total of 16 matches since joining the Nerazzurri. When it comes to goal contributions, Musah has only one assist coming from the Champions League match against Club Brugge. When it comes to passing, Musah’s accuracy has not been bad (83.5%), but he is lacking in chances created with only 3.
He has never been known for scoring goals, but his total shots this half of the season are as low as 0.6. As for his defensive work, it has been average. He has only 2 interceptions, has lacked successful tackles (25% success rate at 1/4), and he has committed a penalty. The only positive is his ball recovery rate, which is at 16. Statistically, the only areas where he sees positive results have been in his dribbling (60% completion) and duels won (59.5%). From Atalanta’s standpoint, if he is offering little in the final third and in your defensive half, then what is the purpose of starting him? As for the USMNT, his poor form at his club has not gone unnoticed by Mauricio Pochettino. The last time Musah received a call-up to the USMNT was for the Gold Cup, which he turned down and that could be a contributing factor to why he has not been called up since. Others in the midfield, and at right wing, have been able to stake their claim onto the team. At this point, we will not be seeing Yunus Musah make it onto the 26-man team this coming summer.
Johnny Cardoso to Atlético Madrid- Stock Down
One of the biggest transfers this past window for an American, and one of the closest followed transfers in Spain, was Johnny Cardoso’s $35 million (according to Goal) move to Atlético Madrid on a 5-year deal. Johnny was coming off a solid season with Real Betis that showed a promising career in Europe. He collected 4 goals and one assist as a defensive midfielder. In just two months of being at Real Betis, Johnny won the LaLiga U23 Player of the Month for February 2024. Fast forward to today, due to his lack of opportunities with Atleti and his USMNT form, his hopes of being at the World Cup are fading.
During pre-season, he made his way onto the starting XI for Atleti starting in the first three matches of the season. Sadly, he picked up an ankle injury that led him to miss 9 matches. Since returning on September 13th, 2025, Johnny went 5 matches without receiving a single minute. Diego Simeone has opted to go with veteran player, Koke, to start alongside Pablo Barrios and Conor Gallagher as the substitution. He finally got his chance when Simeone named him on the Starting XI in their UCL match against Inter Milan on November 26th, 2025. For someone who had not played a single minute since August, Johnny had a good game in the 59 minutes he received. When we look at the stats from those four matches, there were positives. His pass accuracy sits at 77% with 62% total duels won. Johnny also completed 67% of his dribbles, had 4 interceptions, 2.65 tackles per game, 9 clearances, and 9 balls recovered. Obviously, stats alone will not keep you on the pitch and the performances of the other midfielders as of late have made it difficult for Johnny.
Atleti fans on social media are happy with his performances, believe he should be a starter, and believe he is an important player to the team. Time is running out for him at the international level though with the final USMNT friendly camp coming up in March. He must make an argument for himself to get into that camp to get one last shot at the World Cup. If Johnny builds on his performance from the Inter Milan match, he could see himself in that final camp.
Paxten Aaronson to Colorado Rapids- Club: Stock Down
This will be seen as controversial by many MLS fans, but Paxten receives a stock down mostly because the move has not improved his chances of making it onto the USMNT and the impression that his career has regressed. Eintracht Frankfurt’s sporting director, Timmo Hardung, said, “With a view to the 2026 World Cup, which is taking place in his home country, among others, he made the request to take his next step at the Colorado Rapids.” During the Gold Cup, we saw 16 MLS players take part in the campaign. Paxten only received 58 minutes in total, when you include the friendly against Switzerland. It was the only camp he was called up to in 2025. We saw the likes of Diego Luna, Brian Gutierrez, Jack McGlynn, Luca de la Torre, and Sebastian Berhalter were either getting called up ahead of him and/or receiving more minutes than he was at the Gold Cup.
It set a precedent that no matter how well you perform in a top seven league, like the Eredivisie, the performance of those in the MLS will outweigh yours. In Paxten’s case, he had 8 goals and 4 assists in 30 starts for Utrecht, helping them finish 5th in the top Dutch league. His performance at Utrecht was enough for him to be part of Eintracht Frankfurt’s 2025/2026 campaign, who is competing in the UCL, part as stated by Hardung, Paxten submitted a transfer request to join Colorado Rapids. Yes, Paxten is getting regular minutes at Colorado instead of being a bench player, but he is coming back to MLS after just 2 ½ years in Europe. Despite receiving 571 minutes, Paxten only scored one goal and got 0 assists. It was not enough for Poch to give Paxten another chance with the USMNT, and the transfer had been all for nothing.
Malik Tillman to Bayer Leverkusen- Stock Up
Three seasons ago (the 2022/2023 season), Malik Tillman left the Bundesliga after agreeing to a loan deal to Rangers F.C. from Bayern München. For the following season, Tillman went on loan to PSV Eindhoven, which became a permanent deal. This season, he is back in the Bundesliga, but this time with Bayer Leverkusen. In his debut match for Die Werkself, he scored a goal at the 35-minute mark. It has been a slow start for Tillman in the G/A department with only 3 goals in 12 matches, but there are still many positives to this move that show he can make it in the Bundesliga. When available, Tillman started in 10 matches, 3 of which have been UCL matches, and a total of 815 minutes played. Right now, Tillman has 1.50 xG in the Bundesliga with 187 goals per minute.
He also has a goal conversion of 25% to add on top of that. Outside of scoring, his pass accuracy is at 85%, but he has 0 assists and only 6 chances created. Defensively, Tillman has intercepted the ball 8 times, recovered it 33 times, 3 blocked shots, and has a success rate of 79.9% (18/24) tackles. Additionally, he has won 50% of his duels. A major reason why Tillman gets a stock up is because of one reason, he is playing consistently at a high level. Diego Luna is in the MLS and towards the end struggled with his production (it also did not help when Tillman looked like the better 10 in the Gold Cup).
Paxten would not be a starter for Eintracht Frankfurt if he had stayed and he took a step backwards. Gio Reyna is in the Bundesliga as well and is one of our most talented players, but he only has 189 minutes for Mönchengladbach. Despite Tillman’s continued issue of performing consistently, the fact he is getting regular minutes at a top five league club and finally performing for the USMNT, has locked him in as the #1 CAM for the U.S. at the World Cup.
Damion Downs to Southampton- Stock Down
Damion Downs scored 2 goals in 179 minutes just shy of turning 20 years old. He followed this up with 10 goals and 3 assists in his first full season in a professional league when FC Köln was relegated to the 2. Bundesliga. FC Köln won the league and with-it promotion back into the Bundesliga. Downs contribution to the campaign got him a move to English Championship club, Southampton. Anyone who understands English football and Southampton’s striker depth knew this was a risky move. Prior to Downs joining, the club had Cameron Archer, Adam Armstrong, and Ross Stewart. So far, the transfer is going poorly and that is disappointing for a promising player. In 395 minutes, Downs has only one assist and gone 2 matches as an unused substitute. To make matters worse, he has only been on the matchday team sheet 16 times out of the possible 21 matches (Downs missed one match due to illness).
This move was not only important for Downs’ domestic career, but also his international career. During the 2024 Paris Olympics, Downs tried out for the U.S. Olympic team, but Marko Mitrović cut Downs from the team just before the Games. This led him to join Germany’s U20 to take part in their U20 Elite League campaign. It took Pochettino to give him an opportunity at the 2025 Gold Cup for Downs to rejoin the U.S. The goal for Downs would be to take that third striker spot with the USMNT this coming World Cup. Looking at his club form, that will not happen.
If you are looking for any positives, there are two. One, Downs is only 21 years old, so there is still plenty of time to recover his domestic career. Second, Downs is not the only striker at Southampton that has been struggling. Ross Stewart and Cameron Archer only have 2 goals, and one assist each this season. There is still the second half of the season to recover to possibly slide into the 2026 World Cup roster. If not, there is still the 2030 World Cup, which he will be 26 years old.
Patrick Agyemang to Derby County- Stock Down
When the Gold Cup campaign began, Patrick Agyemang started all but one match, when you included the two friendly matches. Prior to the Gold Cup, Agyemang was part of ‘Camp Cupcake’ and the Nations League finals in March. In the three camps, he scored five goals. Many fans and pundits were calling him to be a lock for the USMNT and that appeared to be certain after the Gold Cup, but that is where it ended for him. For the September camp, Folarin Balogun, Josh Sargent, and Damion Downs were selected over Agyemang. Hope returned when he was called in for the October camp, but he did not receive a single minute in the two matches.
Then came the November camp where he did not get the call from Pochettino. What could have happened that led him to fall out of favor with Pochettino? There are two reasons: Balogun and Pepi have returned from injury, and Agyemang has been in poor form at Derby County. In 11 starts and 953 minutes played, Agyemang has only 3 goals and 3 assists. In comparison, fellow American and Championship player, Haji Wright has 9 goals and 2 assists in 14 starts. To make matters worse, Agyemang has 318 goals per minute, and his goal conversion is a meager 11%. His passing has not been the greatest sitting at 69% accuracy, but Agyemang is just short of creating a chance per game at 0.9 (13 chances created). Besides having a poor goal conversion rate, his ball retention is also poor. Agyemang has lost 66% of his duels and losses possession 11.2 per game.
Before his move to Derby County, Agyemang scored 8 goals in the current MLS season and finished last season with 10 goals. The move has not only been a stock down for him domestically, but also internationally. Agyemang needs to find his form quickly or he will not be part of the USMNT again this World Cup cycle.
Benjamin Cremaschi to Parma (loan)- Stock Down
Benjamin Cremaschi was someone whose chances of making it to the World Cup were slim, but he took part in ‘Camp Cupcake’ and performed well in the U20 World Cup. Prior to the U20 World Cup, Cremaschi had yet to make his debut since joining Parma on loan at the end of the summer transfer window. After winning the golden boot at the U20 World Cup, Cremaschi got his debut, but he has only clocked in 14 minutes in 2 matches. On seven different occasions, Cremaschi has been an unused substitution by Carlos Cuesta. The loan deal includes a buy-option and so far, it does not look like Parma will exercise that option. Cremaschi needs to find his way on to the pitch to convince Parma to make the move permanent.
The move at first gave some hope that he could get back into the USMNT picture and his showing at the U20 World Cup reinforced that. Since he has not even reached 25 minutes in Serie A with barely any data and footage to go on, his chances at the World Cup are even less now. Cremaschi would have to try again during the 2030 World Cup cycle.
Timothy Weah to Marseille (loan)- Stock Up
Even though Tim Weah set a personal record for goal contribution with 10 goals and assists, he only started in 24 matches. Now, he is on loan where his dad spent a spell at Marseille. The loan has worked out for Weah so far, starting in 12 of the 15 matches he has appeared in. Currently, Weah has 2 goals and 2 assists with a goal conversion of 23%. His passing accuracy is at 87% with 15 chances created. Weah’s defense has been decent with 59.1% tackles completed, 35 recoveries, and 15 clearances. The one stat that has been negative for him is his duels at 50%, which is not too bad. The move back to Ligue 1 has been beneficial to not just his playing time, but more fitting to his playing style.
Weah is still in the USMNT picture and there should be no doubt that he will be at the World Cup. The question is, at what position? Weah has been playing all along the right side for Marseille, mostly at RB. Now that the USMNT is using a 3-4-2-1, Weah is fighting with Sergiño Dest for that starting RWB spot. If Pochettino does not plan to have Weah at RWB, does he move to CAM, where the depth is deep, or to striker? It is likely that Weah would be placed at RWB, but I do not think it is a matter of being #1 or #2. Depending on who our opponent in the World Cup is would decide if Poch starts Weah or Dest.
Kristoffer Lund to 1. FC Köln (loan)- Stock Up
A surprise transfer over the summer came from Kris Lund when he joined FC Köln in the Bundesliga on loan. Lund started off strong when he joined Palermo in Serie B back in 2023/2024, but last season he struggled with his form and getting starts (he only started 24 of the 35 matches he appeared in). That is why when the report broke out that newly promoted Bundesliga club, FC Köln, signed him on loan with a buy-option, it took U.S. fans by surprise. It has been up and down for Lund since joining Köln, but the club is midtable and will likely avoid relegation. Lund has also been starting consistently for Die Geißböcke with 10 starts out of 14 matches. Due to him getting consistent starts for a midtable Bundesliga club, many USMNT fans have suggested that Pochettino should give Lund another chance.
That has not happened, either because there is something about his club performance that has not impressed Poch to call him up over John Tolkin and Max Arfsten, or Lund’s performance back in the October 2024 camp that left a bad impression. Looking at his stats, Lund has not really done anything offensively and that could be a reason why he has not gotten another look by Poch. His xG is at a low of .20 while his xA sits at .41. Lund did get his first Bundesliga assist recently in Köln’s match against Werder Bremen. Lund’s passing has not been too bad with an accuracy of 72.5%, but his chances created are only at 6. Defensively, he is doing better where he has 10 interceptions, 95.8% (9/12) completed tackles, 31 recoveries, and 36 clearances. A major negative in his records is that he has committed two penalties.
The loan has been good for his domestic career and caught the attention of USMNT fans again. If we are giving a midtable 2. Bundesliga player call-ups, then a midtable Bundesliga player should get another opportunity. It is doubtful that Lund will be at the March camp and at the World Cup. The LWB position will likely be covered by Antonee Robinson and Arfsten, one who has been reliable for us since the 2022 cycle and the other who has a 6 G/A this year. He is 23 years old, so there is always the 2030 World Cup. Lund simply needs to end the season on a positive note, make his move to Köln permanent, and then perform consistently throughout the next cycle.
Honorable Mention
George Campbell to West Brom Albion- Stock Up
Another surprise transfer was when George Campbell left Montréal for English Championship side, West Brom. So far, it has not gone too badly for him. While healthy, he has started in 13 matches with a total of 1,259 minutes. Campbell has collected 2 clean sheets with 9 interceptions, 81.94% (21/30) successful tackles, 47 recoveries, 73 clearances, and 8 blocked shots. The only major negative defensive stat Campbell has is committing one error that led to a shot. He has been successful with his passes by completing 89% of them, but Campbell’s duels have been average, winning 50% of all duels.
Like Lund, Campbell recently got his first English Championship assist in West Brom’s clash against Swansea off the bench. Due to the USMNT’s current lack of quality CBs, there were fans suggesting that Pochettino call up Campbell to give him a shot. The thing is though, Campbell has mostly played at RB, a position that is covered by Sergiño Dest, Alex Freeman, and Joe Scally. On the upside, Poch has moved to a back 3, which could give Campbell access to the USMNT. It is doubtful that he will get a chance at the March camp, but he is only 24 years old, and he is now in Europe where he can continue to develop. The 2030 World Cup is still a reality and that is why he gets a stock up.
Club News
USL’s American Soccer Dream
USL made national headlines when they announced on February 13th, 2025, their plans to launch a Division One league, followed by the announcement of promotion/relegation on March 19th for the new Division One league, the Championship, and League One. If sanctioned by US Soccer, USL Division One would be of equal status to MLS and compete for the best major soccer league in the U.S. The implementation of promotion/relegation in the USL would become the first in the U.S. and test the question asked for many years, “would pro/rel work in the U.S.” USL HQ informed the public that they planned to have the inaugural season of Division One during the 2027-2028 season with promotion/relegation beginning in 2028.
Until November 3rd, with the announcement of Tony Scholes being hired as the President of the Division One, only three teams have applied for membership to the inaugural season of Division one: Louisville City, North Carolina FC (who announced at the time of the Scholes news that they would fold until the launch of Division One), and Pittsburgh Riverhounds. There has been a rapid expansion of teams in the already existing leagues since the two announcements. Teams joining League One are: Fort Lauderdale FC (2026 debut), New York Cosmos (2026 debut), Port St. Lucie SC (2027 debut), Sporting Cascades FC (2026 debut), and Rodeo FC (2027 debut). Fort Wayne FC and Sarasota Paradise would also be joining League One from League Two (2026 for both teams). For the Championship, Reno, NV will once again have a team planned for a 2027 debut. Along with those teams, USL is actively working to expand to other markets. The markets and partners they are looking at are Brevard County, FL (Space Coast Pro Soccer), Riverside, CA (Riverside Pro Soccer), Brownsville, TX (City of Brownsville), Winter Garden, FL (Central FL Pro Soccer), Santa Rosa, CA (City of Santa Rosa), and Pensacola, FL (City of Pensacola).
Along with these recently announced teams and partnerships, USL has teams joining the organization just in time for promotion/relegation that were announced prior to the February and March news. Starting with League One, these teams include: Corpus Christi FC (2026 debut) and Athletic Club Boise (2026 debut). As for the Championship, they will be adding Brooklyn FC (2026 debut), Sporting Jax (2026 debut), Atlético Dallas (2027 debut), Milwaukee Pro Soccer (TBD), USL Pro Iowa (TBD), Buffalo Pro Soccer (TBD), and Ozark United FC (2027 debut), while Santa Barbara Sky FC (2027 debut) would replace Memphis 901 FC.
Other than that, news on the Division One and promotion/relegation had been quiet until USL snatched Tony Scholes from the English Premier League. Tony Scholes will be the President of Division and help with the implementation of promotion/relegation. Scholes served as the chief football officer of the EPL and will join USL at the end of the EPL season. As of November 15, 2025, USL Division One has not been sanctioned as a division one league by US Soccer. The hiring of Scholes indicates that they are confident this new league will get approved or they have already been told it will, behind closed doors. The fact that we have not heard news on what the promotion/relegation format would be, and Scholes task would be to help implement it could mean that USL has not come to a decision on one. Since we do not have any ideas on what the format could be, I want to provide a possible option that they could go with.
One of the biggest questions people have had since the USL announced promotion/relegation was how they would tie it to the playoffs. There is an option they could do, but it would result in only having one playoff. USL would have a playoff for Division One, but they would eliminate the concept for the Championship and League One. It might not be the most popular idea here in the U.S., but the main goal for the lower leagues is to get promoted, not to win a trophy. They would retain the league title for those two leagues with the winner being the team with the most points at the end of the season, just like how it is in the European leagues. The purpose is to create fairness for the top performing team(s) in the two lower leagues and reduce confusion. If there is a need for a playoff format, they could adopt the format the Bundesliga uses where the 16th best team in the first division and the 3rd best in the second division face-off in a two-leg match to see who would be in the first division the following season. The other option is the Championship concept, where the teams who finished 3rd through 6th in the table compete in a promotion playoff. The semi-finals are two-leg matches while the final is a single-leg match. The winner is promoted to the EPL. The execution of promotion/relegation must be done perfectly to retain fans, gain fans, prevent confusion, and be entertaining.
USL already has a division one league with their women’s Super League, who is competing against the NWSL. Currently, the S League has only nine teams (Brooklyn FC, Carolina Ascent FC, Dallas Trinity FC, DC Power FC, Ft. Lauderdale United FC, Lexington FC, Spokane Zephyr FC, Sporting Jax, and Tampa Bay Sun FC) to the NSWL’s 14 teams (3 teams in the works). The Super League will be adding an additional nine teams (Athletic Club Boise, New York Cosmos, Ozark United FC, Buffalo Pro Soccer, Chattanooga Red Wolves FC, Forward Madison FC, Indy Eleven, Oakland Soul SC, and USL Palm Beach) with all but three to have their inaugural season to be determined. What makes the S League unique from the rest of the soccer leagues in the U.S. is that they use a fall-summer schedule. Competing against a top five women’s league in the world is a tall ask, but it shows the ambitions of USL.
They are also willing to take risks by voting to pass promotion/relegation for the men’s league and have a fall-summer schedule for the S League. If the S League schedule format proves successful, it stands to reason that they would move the men’s leagues to the same schedule. It would also avoid the organization from having to fight MLS for viewership when the leagues are in play, especially when they launch a direct rival and are at their most ambitious point in their history. The same can be done for the S League if promotion/relegation is successful for the men. USL can start establishing lower women’s leagues and introduce promotion/relegation to the women’s game here in the U.S.
Many would say USL still stands no chance at competing against MLS, even with promotion/relegation and having a division one league. That is the case when you look at the quality of the players is finance, but that is the reason why the USL made these decisions based on the reports prior to the announcements and afterwards. Promotion/relegation and the introduction of a division one league could see an increase in investors. We are already seeing that with the likes of Gio Reyna joining Fort Lauderdale as an investor, BellTower Partners investing into USL, Sofia Huerta and Kasey Keller joining the Athletic Club Boise ownership group, and the Chickasaw Nation becoming an investor of the OKC for Soccer just this year alone. Then there is the expansion fee for MLS, MLS Next Pro, and the USL leagues. MLS charges an astounding $500 million! Yes, the money is used to construct a proper stadium, acquire players, etc., but at this point it will discourage many from purchasing a franchise license. MLS currently only has two leagues and one of them is advertised as a development league to prepare for MLS. The expansion fee for an independent team to join MLS Next Pro is unknown, but Sports Business Journal reported in 2024 that it is significantly cheaper than the USL Championship. The fee to join the USL Championship is $20 million while League One is only $5 million. These two fees are significantly lower than MLS and that will be more appealing to potential owners, but unlike the MLS fee, it is not enough for a stadium, training grounds, and players. As for what the fee is to join USL Division One, that is unknown at the moment.
I highly recommend reading the ESPN article by Jeff Carlisle titled “Will USL’s Move to Pro-Rel Change U.S. Soccer, Threaten MLS?” In there, Carlisle discusses the reasons behind the decision and that it is mostly financial. For example, a USL spokesperson said they expect to see an increase in commercial revenue by 15% to 30% due to promotion/relegation. Also, the former owner of San Diego Loyal lost $40 million in 4 seasons. As for the reaction from MLS, we have not heard one yet. The only possible reaction we have seen from them is what the former MLS Next Pro president, Charles Altchek, told to Backheeled back on March 6th, 2025. In the interview, he told them they aim to have 40 to 50 teams and a possible second league with one of the MLS Next Pro leagues being a second division, putting it in direct competition with USL Championship. The biggest question is, whichever league that is, can compete for fans? Due to the Apple TV deal, we currently do not have the ratings of MLS Next Pro. The closest idea we have is the attendance, which is 5,580 for USL Championship per match to MLS Next Pro’s 3,361, according to Transfermarkt. Unlike the attendance, the viewership for USLC is much higher where the season premiere match had 453,000 viewers. MLS Next Pro’s massive expansion plan announcement date was either a coincidence, or MLS got word USL’s promotion/relegation implementation with the division one news, and this was their response. I will let you come to your own decision.
It seems, as of right now, it appears MLS will sit back and wait to see how the USL’s Division One and promotion/relegation will play. Division One and promotion/relegation will either be successful for USL and lead them to the financial success they are hoping for or lead to the possible collapse of USL. American sports fans are not the only ones keeping their eyes on USL now, but the rest of the soccer world is after their two massive news. The coming years are going to be exciting times for American soccer!
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