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Tyler Adams YNT Prospect Midfielder for USMNT Tyler Adams YNT Prospect Midfielder for USMNT

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YNT Prospects Probabilities and Possibilities

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Where Will They Go?

Now that you know who the best American YNT prospects born in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 are what should you do with that information, what does it mean, what happens next? What gets YNT prospects from where they are now to the big leagues? I’d advise everyone to engage in some probabilistic thinking. Done by thinking about the key factors that make any player successful.

Thinking in terms of probabilities means incorporating both uncertainty and the accumulated effects of the relevant variables on a player’s developmental path. Roughly it means projecting a player’s path forward based on a band of reasonable outcomes with an upper and lower bound. Beyond young players just tending to be more inconsistent in their performances from game to game (a YNT prospect bucking that trend is a good sign) the closer they are to puberty the more variance there is in where they could be in their athletic development.

I can see how strong and fast a 13 year old is. However, I don’t know if they have already filled out. Also their relative athletic advantages are temporary or likely to improve further. This type of problem must be worked on. However, not with the type of information gained from watching match footage.

An advantage players get in this period the relative age effect. It shows up in the disproportionate selection of early birth year players. They are, on average, more developed than the players born after them and, because of that, are seen as more effective. This advantage can compound as these players get more chances to play. Also more coaching focus, but it starts to dissipate as more players physically mature in the late teens. This is another reason why it makes sense to look at the best and worst reasonable case outcomes for a youth player when projecting them into the future. Maybe a player is being pushed by a manager because they are slightly older and more physically mature, that guy could end up staying among the top YNT prospects. They may fall back into the pack, and that’s challenging to figure out from YouTube.

TIPS

What has seemed to me to be the most useful rubric for determining what a player needs to succeed is the Dutch TIPS frame, TIPS being an acronym for Technique, Insight, Personality, and Speed (they, you, and I can cheat some to include other relevant physical attributes under this category).

So if you’re figuring out what a player’s abilities are by watching game tape you can pretty easily see technique and speed, you may need to know things about the opposition to get a better sense of where a player’s athleticism stacks up, but speed has some objective benchmarks. If you’re a skilled observer you’ll be able to gauge insight, the issue being that if you have little of it yourself you can’t fully evaluate if a player has it and must judge mostly based on outcomes (which like athleticism must be adjusted based on opponent). Seeing a youth player with real insight is a good sign for their prospects going forward because its relative advantage tends to translate up.

Personality is the real black box for third party observers. You get glimpses of it from reactions to things on the field (conflicts, going down a goal, moves falling apart, a teammate screwing up, etc) but that doesn’t tell you everything about how a player’s psychological makeup will fit the needs of a high level professional athlete. I’ve found that this is the endogenous factor that most frequently causes players to fall short of where their youth performances suggest they should end up.

Outside of the TIPS framework I would include environment, and obviously circumstances. In 2014 economists Casey Ichniowski and Anne Preston published a paper. It shows that when a senior team player transfers to and plays at a top team, their national team’s ELO ranking improves. This is a phenomenon labor economists call peer effects. The theory is that when someone is regularly exposed to high level peers they will become more productive. For youth and developing players I would go beyond looking at what the quality of the senior team’s results are. It’s important to understand the club’s overall developmental environment and how those effects will interact with a prospect. 

A top youth player should get chances to train with a senior team. Their development will be influenced by the other parts of the club and the club’s developmental culture. Not all big clubs are the same and some smaller clubs may be better for a player. The process of going from youth to senior team varies. Luis Saurez didn’t go from being a teen in Uruguay straight to Liverpool. He didn’t even go straight to Ajax. He took a path that allowed him an efficient way to progress into being a world class striker.

Players at different points in their careers can benefit from different things (high level individual instruction, tactics focused on development, chances to get their first minutes, competitive tactics that fit their abilities, and an elite first team squad and competitive environment that forces a player to improve). Few clubs have figured out or are capable of being able to expose new players to all those things. I’d advise people to judge the environment of a club based on where that player is in their career. What that club has shown they can do for the similarly situated is meaningful.

Tyler Adams

The are a lot of negative examples of YNT prospects and the factors that go into creating a high level pro but I’ll focus on one of the positives, Tyler Adams.

Adams was born in February of 1999. He was one of the youngest players who was part of the 1998 birth year U17 YNT. Despite his small stature he could hold his own physically. He flew into challenges. Many outside observers discounted him for his lack of technical refinement and things I thought were related to his relative inexperience

The Red Bull organization has their own collective experience. It has focused on bringing through their own players that fit their style rather than making splashy signings. As part of that ethos RBNY became one of the first in MLS to field a professional second team. It provided Adams the opportunity to play hundreds of professional minutes in his mid-to-late teens. As an organization they play an aggressive defensive style that fits Adams’ profile. For an American player of his type it’s hard to think of a better environment. It was ideal to allow him to grow prior to being eligible to move overseas.

The thing that really pointed to Adams being a success, beyond the on-field performances, were stories like the one Aaron Long [told Herc]. Long was a late bloomer himself who also benefited from RBNY II, tells above. I started hearing more about his mentality and training habits from insiders. The amount of uncertainty I had to factor into my evaluation of his prospects diminished. With credible stories about a growth mindset and a high level of competitiveness then the on-field performances can hold more sway.

He has looked like a CL player in the roles that his attributes fit. The type and quality of information about Adams that was applied to my probabilistic model resulted in a clearer picture of what the future would hold, as it would any player.

What the Future Holds for YNT Prospects

The US is producing more quality YNT prospects. As systems professionalize and improve the results will become more regular and of a higher quality. The upper bound of what that higher quality could be will be set by the innate capabilities of the inputs, the players, and shaped by the environments we provide them. As outside observers we can see how kids stack up at a single point in time.

We can apply a trend line to that but we can’t exactly know where that growth will take them. Hopefully now we know why we can’t exactly know and what the most reasonable set of outcomes should be. We must let that band of uncertainty and the information that narrows or shapes it guide our thinking. It should be the basis for our projections of the players on YNT prospect lists going forward

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The constructing of a World Cup roster

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

With the September FIFA window now in the rearview mirror, and only three more windows left before final rosters are set in late May or early June 2026, Mauricio Pochettino has drawn a clear line.

He’s stated that September’s camp was the “last camp to have the possibility for new faces.”

If we take him at his word, the nearly 70 players who’ve been called across six camps and the Gold Cup will form the pool from which he selects the 2026 World Cup squad.

Of the 60 players named to the 2025 Gold Cup provisional roster, only five, Maxi Dietz, Richie Ledezma, Tim Tillman, Caleb Wiley, and Griffin Yow, have yet to appear on a #USMNT roster under Pochettino.

Comparing the 2025 Nations League provisional roster to the Gold Cup list reveals over a dozen different players, raising the question: are these minor differences simply the edges of the player pool Pochettino intends to draw from?

Goalkeepers 

Nine goalkeepers have been called into Pochettino’s camps, but it’s clear that Matt Freese is his first-choice right now, with Matt Turner likely the No. 2 as we sit just 10 months from the World Cup.

  • Chris Brady
  • Drake Callender
  • Roman Celentano
  • Matt Freese
  • Ethan Horvath
  • Jonathan Klinsmann
  • Diego Kochen
  • Patrick Schulte
  • Zack Steffen
  • Matt Turner

Fullbacks

Outside of Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson, the USMNT’s fullback depth remains a concern. Pochettino appears high on MLS defenders Alex Freeman and Max Arfsten, while Caleb Wiley, though yet to feature in a USMNT camp but named to recent provisional rosters, could still be on his depth chart.

  • Max Arfsten
  • Sergino Dest
  • Alex Freeman
  • Marlon Fossey
  • DeJuan Jones
  • Kristoffer Lund
  • Shaquell Moore
  • Antonee Robinson
  • Joe Scally
  • John Tolkin

Centerbacks

Center back remains another position with uncertain depth. Chris Richards and the veteran Tim Ream look like locks for now, leaving three spots up for grabs. If Pochettino opts for a back three, that tactical shift could influence which players ultimately make the cut. Notably, Jackson Ragen and Maxi Dietz are the only center backs from the recent provisional rosters who haven’t been called into a USMNT camp.

  • Noahkai Banks
  • Tristan Blackmon
  • George Campbell
  • Cameron Carter-Vickers
  • Mark McKenzie
  • Tim Ream
  • Chris Richards
  • Miles Robinson
  • Auston Trusty
  • Walker Zimmerman

Central Midfielders

The central midfield position is the deepest for the #USMNT, with many players in the pool capable of also playing fullback, center back, or winger. Although Richie Ledezma has primarily played as a right back and right wing-back for his current club and for PSV last season, USMNT coaches view him primarily as a midfielder. This likely explains why he hasn’t yet been called into a USMNT camp.

  • Tyler Adams
  • Sebastian Berhalter
  • Gianluca Busio
  • Johnny Cardoso
  • Ben Cremaschi
  • Luca de la Torre
  • Emeka Eneli
  • Jack McGlynn
  • Weston McKennie
  • Aidan Morris
  • Yunus Musah
  • Tanner Tessmann
  • Sean Zawadzki

Attacking Midfielders

There are several players at this position who could add real quality and play pivotal roles for the #USMNT at next summer’s World Cup. Gio Reyna remains a major question mark, but his talent is undeniable. With his recent club change, there’s hope he can return to the high level of form we’ve seen from him in the past.

  • Brenden Aaronson
  • Paxten Aaronson
  • Brian Gutiérrez
  • Djordje Mihailovic
  • Matko Miljevic
  • Gio Reyna
  • Malik Tillman

Wingers

The winger position remains thin for the #USMNT, though several players there can also slot in as attacking midfielders, strikers, or even fullback. Notably, two young wingers, Cole Campbell and Griffin Yow, appeared on provisional rosters but have yet to be called into any Pochettino camp.

  • Cade Cowell
  • Diego Luna
  • Christian Pulisic
  • Quinn Sullivan
  • Indiana Vassilev
  • Tim Weah
  • Haji Wright
  • Alejandro Zendejas

Strikers

Another area of concern for the USMNT is striker depth. While the top options have all produced well for their clubs when healthy, injuries have kept the pool thin. If everyone is fit, the primary competition for the starting role likely comes down to three players: Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Josh Sargent. Haji Wright and Tim Weah can also step in as center-forward options if needed.

  • Patrick Agyemang
  • Folarin Balogun
  • Damion Downs
  • Jesus Ferreira
  • Ricardo Pepi
  • Josh Sargent
  • Brandon Vazquez
  • Brian White

Conclusion

It’s tough to read Pochettino’s mindset right now. Many expect fewer MLS players to be called for the October window, partly because the league continues through FIFA dates and the regular season ends mid-October.

Most World Cup rosters largely select themselves, with only a few surprising omissions, think of the 1994 squad, which left out several players many felt deserved a spot.

But with Pochettino still showing a shaky grasp of the USMNT player pool, this cycle could produce more notable snubs than ever, though there’s still time for him to get it right.

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From Louisville to Lisbon: Joshua Wynder’s Journey with S.L. Benfica

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The current state of the USMNT has been at an all-time low since Couva in 2017.  One of the positions in dire situation is Center Back.  Tim Ream will be 38 by the time of the 2026 World Cup.  Chris Richards has too many highs and lows and has not shown his club form with the US.  Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty have yet to perform for the national team.  Miles Robinson, despite what many MLS fans want to believe, is not good enough and makes too many errors, like the second Turkish goal on June 7th, 2025.  Walker Zimmerman has one World Cup left in him and he has a history of making critical errors as well, like the penalty against Gareth Bale in the 2022 World Cup.  Lastly, Mark McKenzie has improved his game since his move to Toulouse, but he is lacking the deserved opportunities and a good partnership.

Our U20 CBs will need to be called up sooner rather than later, either before or immediately after the 2026 World Cup.  The top 3 prospects by fans and analysts are Noahkai Banks, Matai Akinmboni, and Joshua Wynder.  Of the three, Joshua Wynder is the oldest at 20 years old and is part of a club that is world-renowned for their development, S.L. Benfica.

How did Wynder manage to accomplish such a move from Louisville City in the USL Championship to Benfica?  To summarize, Wynder had a breakout season for Lou City at 17 years old in 2022, so much so that he was included in the US U20 World Cup team in 2023. 

LOUvOKC.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Wynder secured a spot to go on trial at Benfica and passed.  On June 8th, 2023, Benfica officially acquired Joshua Wynder from Lou City for a record-breaking $1.2 million transfer fee, which still stands today.

Louisville City FC, LOUvPIT.Photographer: EM Dash Photography

Benfica registered Wynder with the second team for the 2023/2024 season, who participate in Liga Portugal 2.  Due to Portuguese rules (players play in the youth system until they are 19 years old), he spent the season with Benfica’s UEFA Youth League team and U23 team and only received 21 minutes with the B team until a season-ending injury.  What began as a promising start, with the support of the fans, was cut short after just six matches.  The following season went according to plan for Wynder.  Wynder became a consistent starter for the B team where he started in 29 matches and appeared in a total of 31 matches.  He also scored four goals, all headers from corners. 


His success with the B team made him a fan-favorite and several calls to be called up to the first team by fans on social media.  That day came on April 9th, 2025, when he made the team sheet for Benfica’s Taça de Portugal Semi-Final match against FC Tirsense.  Wynder made his first team debut when he was subbed in at the 76th minute mark of that match.  He made a following appearance on the bench for the first team in their second leg match against FC Tirsense.

As early as November 27, 2024, it was reported by Glorioso 1904 that Joshua Wynder had gained the attention of the Benfica manager, Bruno Lage.  The report further said that Wynder was becoming an option for the next season’s first team.  A similar report surfaced on March 25, 2025, by Record, in Portugal, that Wynder is on track to be with the first team for the 2025/2026 season.  That day may be coming sooner rather than later.  Joshua Wynder will be joining Benfica on their 2025 Club World Cup campaign.  This will be a true test for him to prove to Bruno Lage that he is ready to be part of the first team for the upcoming 2025/2026 Liga Portugal and UEFA Champions League season.  If he is given serious minutes with the first team and performs, Joshua Wynder needs to be considered for the 2026 World Cup or immediately following the World Cup.


Benfica is in Group C of the Club World Cup with Auckland City, Bayern München, and Boca Juniors.  Their first match is against Boca Juniors, 33-time Argentine champions, on June 16th.  Game two is on June 20th against 10-time New Zealander champions, Auckland City FC.  Lastly, their 3rd group stage match is against the 6-time UEFA Champions League winners, Bayern München, on June 24th.

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American Transfers: Stock Up & Stock Down

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The 2024 summer transfer window closed on September 1st and over a dozen Americans made a move in the two-month span.  These players range from youth players, like Mathias Albert, to veteran players like John Brooks.  Some moves were great, and some were not.  This article will review several of these transfers and determine if it was a stock up or stock down.

Sergiño Dest & Malik Tillman to PSV- Stock Up

Both Dest and Malik Tillman went on loan (with option to buy) to PSV in the Eredivisie at the start of last season.  Both had a great season where they could have gone to a better league for this season.  PSV decided to trigger both player’s buy option, making them permanent players for the Dutch club.  These are good moves in my opinion because Dest had a regrettable loan to Milan two seasons ago and a difficult relationship with Xavi Hernandez. 

Dest needs another season (in his case, half a season) with the Dutch club to develop, recover his young career, and show clubs that he can compete in the UCL.  The same goes for Tillman, who needs to further develop his attacking, work rate, and ability to compete in the UCL.  If both can replicate and/or take a step up from their performance from last season, they should return to a top 5 league.  (Note: Bayern has a buy-back option for Malik Tillman)

Santiago Castañeda to Paderborn- Stock Up

The Tampa-born Colombian-American spent last season with the 3. Liga with Duisburg where he appeared in 31 matches with 2 goals and 2 assists.  This season, he is with Paderborn, a consistent 2. Bundesliga club and he already has a goal in 5 starts across all competitions.  This is impressive when you realize that Santiago will be turning 20 years old on November 13th.  US fans (who do not follow USL closely) are just now learning about him and some probably have already written him off because of his background. 

He is taking a similar path as Lennard Maloney, who played in both 3. Liga and 2. Bundesliga before moving back up to the Bundesliga.  In Santiago’s case, he started with Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship before moving to Duisburg.  To add to the move being a stock up because of moving up a league, he is also a CDM, a position that the US is lacking depth at.  Other American CDMs who are in about his age (+/- 1 years old) are Daniel Edelman, Moses Nyeman, Marcel Ruszel, and Ethan Kohler (although, he is being converted to an RB) to name a few.  If he continues down this path, he can become the #1 American CDM in his age group followed by Pedro Soma (who is 2 years younger than Santiago) in the next age group.

Paxten Aaronson to Utrecht- Stock Up

The Paris Olympian will be heading back to the Eredivisie, but this time, he will be joining fellow Americans Taylor Booth and Rickson van Hees at Utrecht.  Paxten had a successful half season with Vitesse where he had 4 goals in 14 appearances.  As a CAM, he is competing against Gio Reyna and Malik Tillman (both being only a year older) for a spot on the USMNT.  Right now, he is not beating either one of them out, even with Gio being injury prone and Tillman’s lack of producibility for the USMNT. 

Gio has had several occasions of great moments with the national team and Tillman is coming off a 24-goal contribution season.  Going back to the Eredivisie would greatly help his development before heading back to Eintracht Frankfurt.  Also, if he has a more productive season than Tillman, then there is an argument to make Paxten the #2 CAM for the USMNT.  Currently, Tillman has 4 goal contributions in 5 matches across all competitions to Paxten’s 1 assist in 4 matches.

Caleb Wiley to Chelsea with loan to Strasbourg- Stock Up

This is one of the players who needed a move this summer and who was able to get an upgrade.  Caleb Wiley arguably has the highest ceiling amongst our U23 LBs.  Now, Strasbourg is employing him more as an LWB, which is, in my opinion, his best position.  Last season at Atlanta, Wiley started as a LW that led to a fantastic form.  When he moved to LB, he became inconsistent and stagnated, but he played more as a LWB and his form went back up.  Along with that and with him turning 20 in December, he needed to get out of MLS. 

We see what happens to players who stay in the MLS too long, i.e. John Tolkin, who has struggled to transition his club form to the USMNT, and Brandon Vazquez, who is now struggling to start for Monterrey and out of the USMNT picture.  Playing in a top 5 league and being developed into an LWB can help him unlock his full potential.  To add, Wiley already has 2 starts, a halftime substitution, and an assist for Strasbourg.

Rodrigo Neri to Atlanta 2- Stock Down

This is one of the most disappointing moves for those who follow the USYNT U20 team and the future state of the USMNT striker position.  Neri’s young career has dramatically fallen in just one year.  He was part of the Atletico de Madrid academy since 2021 but left their U19 team for Valencia U19 to now Atlanta 2.  Based on Be Soccer, Neri had 0 goal contributions in just only 11 matches for both Spanish U19 teams.  7 games in and Neri already has 3 goals and 1 assist for Atlanta 2.  This can either mean he has improved, returned to his Atletico U19 B form (where he had 17 goals in 32 matches), and/or that MLSNP is weaker than División de Honor Juvenil (the league that Atleti U19 is part of).  Either way, we can already see that his lack of goals has impacted his international career. 

The last time that he was part of the team was the U19/20 March camp against Morocco and England.  He was left off the CONCACAF U20 Championship for Keyrol Figueroa and Marcos Zambrano.  This is after being part of the U19 team that participated in the 2023 PanAm Games where he had 1 goal in 5 matches.  Besides that, he had scored a goal against England and a brace against Norway when he was part of the U17 team in 2022.  AS USA even had a piece on Neri back in 2022 calling him the next big thing for the US. 

Usually, this far of a drop would almost take you out of the international conversation but knowing US Soccer’s habit of calling up MLSNP players like Sergio Oregel Jr., there is still a chance that Neri can be back in the conversation in time of the 2025 U20 World Cup.  The only positive thing about this move is that it could help him get his career back on track.

Vaughn Covil to Las Vegas- Stock Down

For Covil’s career, this was the right move to make.  For his international career, it only leaves the Philippines for him.  His chances with England were never going to happen.  2-3 years ago, you could have said he had a chance with the US and even more with Canada with the right development.  Now, he is better off committing to the Philippines if he wants to have an international career. 

It’s a stock down move because it would’ve been better if he had made a deal with an EFL League 2 club than coming to the USL Championship and because he is limited to just one national team instead of four.  Hopefully, he does well at Las Vegas and can get a call-up by the Philippines.

Jonathan Gomez to PAOK- Stock Down

This move is one of the most disappointing of all the transfers this summer by an American.  While at Louisville and with the USYNT, he looked like a future LB/LWB option for the USMNT and another dual national battle with Mexico.  When he went to Real Sociedad and after his successful loan to Mirandes in La Liga 2, things were in an upward trajectory.  He left Real Sociedad (likely because they didn’t want to extend his contract, so they opt to sell him to make a profit) for reigning Greek champions, PAOK.  When it should have been a positive that he will be playing in his first season at a 1st division, it is a negative because of it being the Greek Super League 1.  PAOK is also in the Europa League and that should’ve been a positive for his career, but the Greek champions left him off their UEL roster. 

He is still only 21 years old and if he does well enough for them, then he can move up to a better league in a season or two.  At this moment, he has slipped out of the conversation to compete with Lund, Tolkin, and Wiley to be the future #1 LB/LWB.  To make matters worse, Caleb Wiley’s 2024/25 season has started off well at Strasbourg with 2 starts and an assist.  You could argue that during the 2023 U20 World Cup that JoGo was the better of the two at the LB/LWB position but now Wiley is above him on the depth chart.

Aidan Morris to Middlesborough- Stock Up

Like Caleb Wiley, Morris needed to leave MLS to further his development and avoid the situation that John Tolkin is in.  Even though Morris has been underwhelming for the USMNT, he has the potential to be a consistent player of the 23-26 men roster.  So far this season with Boro, he has been a standout and quick favorite amongst the fans.  Going to the EFL Championship was one of the best choices he could have made as his next stop.  The physicality of the league will teach him how to become more physical and his quick decision-making.  The development could easily put him in the top 4 CDM options for 2026. 

The biggest question for him is, can he transition his great club form to the national team.  If he can pull it off, he can jump ahead of Lennard Maloney and Tanner Tessmann, depending on how he does with Lyon this season.  This is a top 3 move by an American player not just because how the season is going so far for him but because Boro will be competing for promotion and development potential.

Tanner Tessman to Lyon- Stock Up

Tessmann’s transfer saga is one for the books.  He was closely linked to Inter Milan and Fiorentina until both fell apart because of disagreements.  Towards the end of the transfer window, he got a move to a top Ligue 1 club, Lyon.  If he had stayed with Venezia, he still would’ve been playing in a top-five league, but Lyon is the better option.  Venezia will be fighting to stay in the Serie A like they did in 2021/22, whereas Lyon is consistently a top 10 French club, and in many cases a top 5 club. 

To add to that, Lyon is in the UEL.  The season is not going well for Lyon right now, but they can recover and compete for UEFA qualification.  The club and the fans will be more demanding than Venezia because of their prestige, he can learn from veteran players like Matic and Veretout and it would require him to compete for starts.  It’ll be a real test for him after his last time in a top 5 league did not go as well and two great seasons in the Serie B.

All of these will help him take the next step and help him be in the top 3 CDM USMNT conversation.  The battle Tessmann, Aidan Morris, Maloney, Johnny Cardoso, and Tyler Adams (once he returns) for the top 2 CDM spots on the USMNT will be a joy to watch this season.

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