USMNT
Moneyball: An Explanation for 2019
There were several persistent issues fans and pundits had with Gregg Berhalter and the USMNT in 2019, beyond results.
Four of the biggest were:
- The continued presence on rosters of mid-20s players, from MLS, that were given minutes no matter how they performed for the USMNT or in MLS.
- The almost Puritanical need to “Play Out of the Back”, no matter the game state or opposition defense.
- A passive mid-block defense that allowed opponents easy entry into our third of the field.
- Substitutions that made no sense in competitive games.
There are two theories among fans and analysts who try and analyze the situation, beyond, “Gregg is an idiot who was only hired because he is brothers with the CEO to be.” Whether there is any truth to that statement is counteracted by the idea that nobody could be that big an idiot. Some will disagree of course.
Both theories start from the idea that Gregg, from the day he was hired, had a set system that he wanted to play. That he would find players that fit the system, rather than devise a system that fit the players he had.
The first theory is that Gregg wanted to only rely on data and “player profiles” based on data collected by services like Opta. This tries to explain the #1 complaint by pointing out that most of our talent in Europe is very young, few have first team minutes in large quantities, so there is no Opta data. That since Gregg was only selecting players he could get data on, they mostly were mid-twenties players in MLS who had mountains of data available. Players with good amounts of data could be added, like Pulisic, Brooks, Ream. But players like Richie Ledezma could not.
This theory kind of hits the snag at the exclusion of plenty of players with lots of first team minutes like Antonee Robinson, Duane Holmes, Julian Green, Fabian Johnson, etc. It also doesn’t address #2, 3, 4 in any way other than, Gregg is “naïve”.
My theory, based on things discussed by media members with insider access, is that 2019 was an experiment in a “Moneyball” approach. This is a popular sporting concept in the USA and increasingly around the world. It is looking for incremental competitive advantages using statistical analysis to offset competitive disadvantages in talent disparity. The famous example is how the Oakland A’s used the statistical work of Bill James to build a team on par with the Yankees and Red Sox on 1/50th the budget.
The idea Gregg, and Earnie Stewart, had and possibly still have, is that the MLS season is very different from the European and South American seasons. The long winter break allows for a long national team training camp in January (Camp Cupcake). Brazil, Germany, France, etc. do not have this opportunity for a long, like a club pre-season, camp. That the extra time could be used to teach a complicated, Pep Guardiola-esque, positional offense that would allow the USMNT, with less talent, to compete with the previous mentioned teams; who can’t run sophisticated offenses because the short windows national teams have together.
Data was used to pick the original January pool. They were drilled in the new system. The idea was that these players would then be able to carry that knowledge forward and help train additional players. New players would be brought in a few at a time until they got up to speed then more could be integrated. This is why the rosters throughout the year featured so many players from January camp (Cupcakers). This is why only the top players in Europe were initially brought in in small numbers. In June, longer camps were held and more non-MLS players were brought in. But when the Gold Cup roster was announced, in the end, it contained 14 Cupcakers out of 23 players. This roughly 2/3rds ratio of Cupcakers to non-Cupcakers was very consistent throughout 2019.
There is no way to teach a possession based positional read and react offense (The System) without playing it. This is why all year, until the final Canada game, the USA played out of the back almost exclusively. Even in the Friendly against Mexico, with Mexico probably figuring out this entire plan and that the USA was not going to go over the top, against 7 and 8 men presses, they played in to the pressure.
But how does this explain why the USMNT played a passive mid-block defense that made teams like Curacao and Canada look like Spain? The defense was deployed by Gregg not to win games or even to win the ball. It was designed to create goal kicks for the USA. The more goal kicks, the more opportunities to play out from the back and practice The System. Since the most limited thing a national team has is minutes of game time, every minute was maximized as a training exercise.
Down by a goal in the Gold Cup Final, Gregg substituted on Roldan for Morris, Zardes for Altidore, and Lovitz for Ream. The last one is really perplexing because Lovitz is not only not a goal threat, but is not even good. This one is discussed a lot because it is so questionable. But all three are Cupcakers subbing in for non-Cupcakers. Gregg must have felt a better execution of The System would lead to a goal or viewed the Gold Cup Final as another training exercise like all the previous games.
Following the second Mexico loss and the loss in Canada, pressure mounted. Against Canada in Orlando, some things changed. The roster was still heavily infested with Cupcakers, but only 4 ended up playing. The USMNT played goal kicks short, but never passed back to the goal keeper like previously. If another short pass was not on, the ball was hit long to a forward. Contrast that with the Mexico friendly where passing back was used to keep possession at all costs; frequently ending up at the feet of a center back on the goal line or in Steffan’s 6 yard box. The USMNT did not sit in a passive mid-block, but instead used a form of high press that led to turnovers and transition goals. The subs were mostly defense for offense which made sense with a multi-goal lead.
I believe several flaws in the “moneyball” approach became apparent:
- The Cupcakers that were relied upon were simply not good enough
- The reliance on a core Group, doesn’t allow for new or in form players to be integrated quickly or at all.
- Most of the young talent breaking through last year and in the upcoming years, will be in Europe and will not be able to attend Camp Cupcake.
- The team did not look comfortable executing The System at any point and that is either because Gregg could not teach it, the players could not execute it, or even with the large amount of Cupcakers the European players couldn’t learn it, or the European players could execute it but the MLS players couldn’t keep up.
We don’t know if it has been abandoned and we don’t know if Gregg thinks it was a failure at all. We probably will not know until March at the earliest, maybe not until the CONCACAF National League Final or even World Cup Qualifying in August.
USMNT
From Maradona to Messi
From Maradona to Messi: A Quick Look at World Cups 1986–2022
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
A quick look back at the last ten World Cups reveals how the world’s greatest sporting event has evolved and grown through the decades. With over 200 days until the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off, here’s a high-level recap of the tournaments that shaped its legacy, and a glimpse of what’s next.
1986 – Mexico
Diego Maradona delivered a World Cup for the ages, scoring both the “Goal of the Century” and the infamous “Hand of God” in the same match, then leading Argentina past West Germany to claim their second World Cup title.
1990 – Italy
The USA returned to the World Cup after a 50-year absence in what became the lowest-scoring tournament in history, as West Germany edged Argentina 1–0 on a late penalty. It marked West Germany’s final World Cup before reunification.
1994 – United States
The USA hosted its first-ever World Cup, setting all-time attendance records as Brazil defeated Italy in the tournament’s first final decided by a penalty shootout in front of the largest crowds in US since the 1984 Olympics.
1998 – France
FIFA’s first 32-team World Cup saw host nation France capture its first-ever title, becoming the seventh country to win the trophy. Led by Zinedine Zidane triumphed on home soil with a commanding victory over defending champions Brazil.
2002 – South Korea/Japan
The first World Cup with co-hosting nations saw South Korea stun many by reaching the semifinals, while Brazil claimed their fifth title, powered by Ronaldo’s two goals in the final against Germany.
2006 – Germany
Germany came up short on home soil, losing in extra time to eventual first-time finalist Italy in the semifinal. Italy went on to claim its fourth World Cup, edging France on penalties in a final forever marked by Zidane’s infamous headbutt in extra time.
2010 – South Africa
The first World Cup hosted by a CAF nation, South Africa, saw the host nation become the first ever to fail to advance past the group stage. Meanwhile, Spain captured their first World Cup, showcasing their tiki-taka mastery and defeating the Netherlands in extra-time with Andrés Iniesta’s decisive goal.
2014 – Brazil
Host nation Brazil reached the semifinals on home soil but suffered a shocking 7–1 defeat to Germany and then fell 3-0 to the Netherlands in the third-place match. Germany went on to defeat Argentina in extra time, with Mario Götze scoring the decisive goal, while Lionel Messi claimed the Golden Ball as the tournament’s best player.
2018 – Russia
France’s golden generation, spearheaded by tournament Best Young Player Kylian Mbappé, captured their second World Cup title with a thrilling 4–2 victory over Croatia, led by Golden Ball winner Luka Modrić.
2022 – Qatar
The 2022 World Cup, overshadowed by controversies over migrant worker treatment and extreme heat, which pushed the tournament to November and December, ultimately delivered a historic finale. Lionel Messi achieved crowning glory as Argentina triumphed on penalties in a thrilling 3–3 final against France, highlighted by Kylian Mbappé’s hat-trick.
2026 – United States/Mexico/Canada
The 2026 World Cup will feature a major expansion from 32 to 48 teams and, for the first time ever, be hosted by three nations. Mexico will make history as the first country to host matches in three different World Cups, while the United States becomes the sixth nation to host at least twice. What unforgettable moments will define this landmark tournament?
USMNT
One Home or Many? The Debate Over a Primary Venue for U.S. Soccer
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
The logics of the United States make it almost impossible for the USMNT or USWNT to have a primary venue to play all of their home matches but a trend of playing in a handful of stadiums has been developing over the last couple of cycles. US Soccer says there are specific factors behind where matches are played, some make sense, while others come across as lazy or lacking creativity.
If and when Major League Soccer aligns with the FIFA calendar and observes international breaks, more MLS stadiums could become available for matches. While not all MLS venues currently feature natural grass, US Soccer has indicated they would be willing to invest in installing grass, though at a cost of around $500K and with potential concerns about surface reliability.
Global Approach to Scheduling
Many of the top-tier international teams play their World Cup qualifiers and other critical matches in a primary venue or two. Here’s a sample of some of those countries and generally where they play based on my research.
Here are some of the more notable nations that play nearly all of their home matches at a single venue, a setup made practical by their smaller size and simpler logistics, which also makes it easier for fans.
Germany and Spain are known for rotating their non-critical home matches across multiple venues.
Argentina-Estadio Monumental (River Plate)
Belgium– King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels)
Colombia-Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez
England-Wembley Stadium
France– Stade de France (Saint-Denis, near Paris)
Italy-Stadio Olimpico
Northern Ireland-Windsor Park (Belfast)
Norway-Ullevaal Stadion (Oslo)
Portugal– Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)
Republic of Ireland-Aviva Stadium (Dublin)
Scotland-Hampden Park (Glasgow)
Uruguay-Estadio Centenario
Wales-Cardiff City Stadium
What’s in a location?
Here’s a look at the past few cycles, highlighting the USMNT’s home matches and the venues they’ve used. While US Soccer has clarified that they don’t control Gold Cup or Nations League venue selection, a point still under debate, they do manage the locations for Friendlies and World Cup qualifiers and continue to review and adjust those choices.
2026 Cycle (Matches Scheduled Through the end of 2025) – 46 Home Matches – 30 unique cities
So far, half of the USMNT’s home matches in the 2026 cycle have been held across eight venues. Only two more windows, March and May/June, remain for Friendlies before the 2026 World Cup.
- 4-AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- 4-Energizer Park, previously CityPark, St. Louis, Missouri
- 4-Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas
- 3-Inter&Co Stadium (previously Orlando City Stadium and Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida
- 2-Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada
- 2-Geodis Park, Nashville, Tennessee
- 2-Rentschler Field, East Hartford, Connecticut
- 2-TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
2022 Cycle – 43 Home Matches – 24 unique cities
I can almost give US Soccer a pass on city and venue selection during the 2022 cycle, given the global circumstances at the time. That said, it’s interesting that they scheduled three consecutive home World Cup qualifiers in Ohio, with final round two matches in Columbus. Columbus has been a recurring choice, hosting multiple qualifiers in 2014, 2018, and 2022, handling one match each during both the semifinal and final rounds of qualifying in 2014 and 2018.
Lower.com, Columbus, Ohio
2018 Cycle – 47 Home Matches – 33 unique cities
During the 2018 cycle, the USMNT played in a wider variety of cities and venues. Aside from four matches in Carson, California for the January camp, they only repeated a location eleven times.
Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
2014 Cycle – 43 Home Matches – 29 unique cities
During the 2014 cycle, the USMNT repeated cities twelve times, but only two cities hosted more than two matches: Carson, California, where two of three games were for Camp Cupcake, and Kansas City, Kansas, which hosted three matches.
Children’s Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas
2010 Cycle – 35 Home Matches – 18 unique cities
One of the leanest home schedules in recent cycles saw the USMNT play in just 18 different cities, with 11 of them hosting only a single match. Over half of their home games were concentrated in four cities: Carson, California (7 matches); Chicago, Illinois (5 matches); and Foxborough, Massachusetts and Washington, D.C. (3 matches each).
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
2006 Cycle – 44 Home Matches – 24 unique cities
The USMNT played eight matches in Foxborough, Massachusetts—double the number held in the next two cities, Columbus, Ohio, and Miami, Florida, which each hosted four matches. Notably, the team has excelled in Foxborough, losing only once in 22 games played there.
Foxboro Stadium, Foxborough, MA
2002 Cycle – 38 Home Matches – 16 unique cities
During the 2002 cycle, California was clearly a preferred destination for the USMNT, hosting matches in five different cities across twelve games. Foxborough, Massachusetts, and Washington, D.C. each hosted five matches as well.
Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
1998 Cycle– 40 Home Matches – 21 unique cities
Washington D.C. was the city of choice for the USMNT during the 1998 cycle playing six matches. The USMNT would also play more than two matches in Los Angeles, California (5 matches), Foxborough, Massachusetts (4 matches) and Pasadena, California (3 matches) while playing only one match in twelve other cities.
RFK Stadium, Washington, DC
Long Term Venue Strategy
While US Soccer may favor a single venue for most USMNT and USWNT matches, doing so would limit access for thousands of fans across the country. However, with the move to Georgia and the Arthur M. Blank U.S. Soccer National Training Center set to open in early 2026, ahead of the World Cup, it’s likely that future matches will focus on venues within three to four hours of Atlanta. We can expect the majority of games to continue taking place in roughly ten to twelve core cities.
Club News
The constructing of a World Cup roster
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
With the September FIFA window now in the rearview mirror, and only three more windows left before final rosters are set in late May or early June 2026, Mauricio Pochettino has drawn a clear line.
He’s stated that September’s camp was the “last camp to have the possibility for new faces.”
If we take him at his word, the nearly 70 players who’ve been called across six camps and the Gold Cup will form the pool from which he selects the 2026 World Cup squad.
Of the 60 players named to the 2025 Gold Cup provisional roster, only five, Maxi Dietz, Richie Ledezma, Tim Tillman, Caleb Wiley, and Griffin Yow, have yet to appear on a #USMNT roster under Pochettino.
Comparing the 2025 Nations League provisional roster to the Gold Cup list reveals over a dozen different players, raising the question: are these minor differences simply the edges of the player pool Pochettino intends to draw from?
Goalkeepers
Nine goalkeepers have been called into Pochettino’s camps, but it’s clear that Matt Freese is his first-choice right now, with Matt Turner likely the No. 2 as we sit just 10 months from the World Cup.
- Chris Brady
- Drake Callender
- Roman Celentano
- Matt Freese
- Ethan Horvath
- Jonathan Klinsmann
- Diego Kochen
- Patrick Schulte
- Zack Steffen
- Matt Turner
Fullbacks
Outside of Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson, the USMNT’s fullback depth remains a concern. Pochettino appears high on MLS defenders Alex Freeman and Max Arfsten, while Caleb Wiley, though yet to feature in a USMNT camp but named to recent provisional rosters, could still be on his depth chart.
- Max Arfsten
- Sergino Dest
- Alex Freeman
- Marlon Fossey
- DeJuan Jones
- Kristoffer Lund
- Shaquell Moore
- Antonee Robinson
- Joe Scally
- John Tolkin
Centerbacks
Center back remains another position with uncertain depth. Chris Richards and the veteran Tim Ream look like locks for now, leaving three spots up for grabs. If Pochettino opts for a back three, that tactical shift could influence which players ultimately make the cut. Notably, Jackson Ragen and Maxi Dietz are the only center backs from the recent provisional rosters who haven’t been called into a USMNT camp.
- Noahkai Banks
- Tristan Blackmon
- George Campbell
- Cameron Carter-Vickers
- Mark McKenzie
- Tim Ream
- Chris Richards
- Miles Robinson
- Auston Trusty
- Walker Zimmerman
Central Midfielders
The central midfield position is the deepest for the #USMNT, with many players in the pool capable of also playing fullback, center back, or winger. Although Richie Ledezma has primarily played as a right back and right wing-back for his current club and for PSV last season, USMNT coaches view him primarily as a midfielder. This likely explains why he hasn’t yet been called into a USMNT camp.
- Tyler Adams
- Sebastian Berhalter
- Gianluca Busio
- Johnny Cardoso
- Ben Cremaschi
- Luca de la Torre
- Emeka Eneli
- Jack McGlynn
- Weston McKennie
- Aidan Morris
- Yunus Musah
- Tanner Tessmann
- Sean Zawadzki
Attacking Midfielders
There are several players at this position who could add real quality and play pivotal roles for the #USMNT at next summer’s World Cup. Gio Reyna remains a major question mark, but his talent is undeniable. With his recent club change, there’s hope he can return to the high level of form we’ve seen from him in the past.
- Brenden Aaronson
- Paxten Aaronson
- Brian Gutiérrez
- Djordje Mihailovic
- Matko Miljevic
- Gio Reyna
- Malik Tillman
Wingers
The winger position remains thin for the #USMNT, though several players there can also slot in as attacking midfielders, strikers, or even fullback. Notably, two young wingers, Cole Campbell and Griffin Yow, appeared on provisional rosters but have yet to be called into any Pochettino camp.
- Cade Cowell
- Diego Luna
- Christian Pulisic
- Quinn Sullivan
- Indiana Vassilev
- Tim Weah
- Haji Wright
- Alejandro Zendejas
Strikers
Another area of concern for the USMNT is striker depth. While the top options have all produced well for their clubs when healthy, injuries have kept the pool thin. If everyone is fit, the primary competition for the starting role likely comes down to three players: Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Josh Sargent. Haji Wright and Tim Weah can also step in as center-forward options if needed.
- Patrick Agyemang
- Folarin Balogun
- Damion Downs
- Jesus Ferreira
- Ricardo Pepi
- Josh Sargent
- Brandon Vazquez
- Brian White
Conclusion
It’s tough to read Pochettino’s mindset right now. Many expect fewer MLS players to be called for the October window, partly because the league continues through FIFA dates and the regular season ends mid-October.
Most World Cup rosters largely select themselves, with only a few surprising omissions, think of the 1994 squad, which left out several players many felt deserved a spot.
But with Pochettino still showing a shaky grasp of the USMNT player pool, this cycle could produce more notable snubs than ever, though there’s still time for him to get it right.
From Maradona to Messi
One Home or Many? The Debate Over a Primary Venue for U.S. Soccer
The constructing of a World Cup roster
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