USMNT
Moneyball: An Explanation for 2019
There were several persistent issues fans and pundits had with Gregg Berhalter and the USMNT in 2019, beyond results.
Four of the biggest were:
- The continued presence on rosters of mid-20s players, from MLS, that were given minutes no matter how they performed for the USMNT or in MLS.
- The almost Puritanical need to “Play Out of the Back”, no matter the game state or opposition defense.
- A passive mid-block defense that allowed opponents easy entry into our third of the field.
- Substitutions that made no sense in competitive games.
There are two theories among fans and analysts who try and analyze the situation, beyond, “Gregg is an idiot who was only hired because he is brothers with the CEO to be.” Whether there is any truth to that statement is counteracted by the idea that nobody could be that big an idiot. Some will disagree of course.
Both theories start from the idea that Gregg, from the day he was hired, had a set system that he wanted to play. That he would find players that fit the system, rather than devise a system that fit the players he had.
The first theory is that Gregg wanted to only rely on data and “player profiles” based on data collected by services like Opta. This tries to explain the #1 complaint by pointing out that most of our talent in Europe is very young, few have first team minutes in large quantities, so there is no Opta data. That since Gregg was only selecting players he could get data on, they mostly were mid-twenties players in MLS who had mountains of data available. Players with good amounts of data could be added, like Pulisic, Brooks, Ream. But players like Richie Ledezma could not.
This theory kind of hits the snag at the exclusion of plenty of players with lots of first team minutes like Antonee Robinson, Duane Holmes, Julian Green, Fabian Johnson, etc. It also doesn’t address #2, 3, 4 in any way other than, Gregg is “naïve”.
My theory, based on things discussed by media members with insider access, is that 2019 was an experiment in a “Moneyball” approach. This is a popular sporting concept in the USA and increasingly around the world. It is looking for incremental competitive advantages using statistical analysis to offset competitive disadvantages in talent disparity. The famous example is how the Oakland A’s used the statistical work of Bill James to build a team on par with the Yankees and Red Sox on 1/50th the budget.
The idea Gregg, and Earnie Stewart, had and possibly still have, is that the MLS season is very different from the European and South American seasons. The long winter break allows for a long national team training camp in January (Camp Cupcake). Brazil, Germany, France, etc. do not have this opportunity for a long, like a club pre-season, camp. That the extra time could be used to teach a complicated, Pep Guardiola-esque, positional offense that would allow the USMNT, with less talent, to compete with the previous mentioned teams; who can’t run sophisticated offenses because the short windows national teams have together.
Data was used to pick the original January pool. They were drilled in the new system. The idea was that these players would then be able to carry that knowledge forward and help train additional players. New players would be brought in a few at a time until they got up to speed then more could be integrated. This is why the rosters throughout the year featured so many players from January camp (Cupcakers). This is why only the top players in Europe were initially brought in in small numbers. In June, longer camps were held and more non-MLS players were brought in. But when the Gold Cup roster was announced, in the end, it contained 14 Cupcakers out of 23 players. This roughly 2/3rds ratio of Cupcakers to non-Cupcakers was very consistent throughout 2019.
There is no way to teach a possession based positional read and react offense (The System) without playing it. This is why all year, until the final Canada game, the USA played out of the back almost exclusively. Even in the Friendly against Mexico, with Mexico probably figuring out this entire plan and that the USA was not going to go over the top, against 7 and 8 men presses, they played in to the pressure.
But how does this explain why the USMNT played a passive mid-block defense that made teams like Curacao and Canada look like Spain? The defense was deployed by Gregg not to win games or even to win the ball. It was designed to create goal kicks for the USA. The more goal kicks, the more opportunities to play out from the back and practice The System. Since the most limited thing a national team has is minutes of game time, every minute was maximized as a training exercise.
Down by a goal in the Gold Cup Final, Gregg substituted on Roldan for Morris, Zardes for Altidore, and Lovitz for Ream. The last one is really perplexing because Lovitz is not only not a goal threat, but is not even good. This one is discussed a lot because it is so questionable. But all three are Cupcakers subbing in for non-Cupcakers. Gregg must have felt a better execution of The System would lead to a goal or viewed the Gold Cup Final as another training exercise like all the previous games.
Following the second Mexico loss and the loss in Canada, pressure mounted. Against Canada in Orlando, some things changed. The roster was still heavily infested with Cupcakers, but only 4 ended up playing. The USMNT played goal kicks short, but never passed back to the goal keeper like previously. If another short pass was not on, the ball was hit long to a forward. Contrast that with the Mexico friendly where passing back was used to keep possession at all costs; frequently ending up at the feet of a center back on the goal line or in Steffan’s 6 yard box. The USMNT did not sit in a passive mid-block, but instead used a form of high press that led to turnovers and transition goals. The subs were mostly defense for offense which made sense with a multi-goal lead.
I believe several flaws in the “moneyball” approach became apparent:
- The Cupcakers that were relied upon were simply not good enough
- The reliance on a core Group, doesn’t allow for new or in form players to be integrated quickly or at all.
- Most of the young talent breaking through last year and in the upcoming years, will be in Europe and will not be able to attend Camp Cupcake.
- The team did not look comfortable executing The System at any point and that is either because Gregg could not teach it, the players could not execute it, or even with the large amount of Cupcakers the European players couldn’t learn it, or the European players could execute it but the MLS players couldn’t keep up.
We don’t know if it has been abandoned and we don’t know if Gregg thinks it was a failure at all. We probably will not know until March at the earliest, maybe not until the CONCACAF National League Final or even World Cup Qualifying in August.
USMNT
Is the MLS Specifically Targeting Expansion to USL Cities?
In 2019, Don Garber and MLS announced they would expand to 30 teams. A year later, Don Garber said the cities of Las Vegas, Indianapolis, San Diego, Detroit, and Phoenix were clubs interested in joining MLS. Four of those cities had a USL or NISA club at the time of the announcement. Today, one of those USL teams has ceased to exist, another may be in jeopardy now, and the NISA club is now a USL club.
On April 25th, 2024, the Mayor of Indianapolis, Joe Hogsett, announced an unnamed ownership group would put in a bid for an MLS club. Along with the announcement, the owners of Indy XI (the USL Championship team in Indianapolis), Keystone Group, announced the City had backed out of the $1 billion fund for Eleven Park. The stadium was announced in 2022 and was planned to be a 20,000-seat stadium. It would also include additional apartments, office buildings, and other amenities. Last year, the stadium broke ground. That means that the mayor and city council agreed to stop the funding of a sports facility in mid-construction that would also add additional jobs to the people of Indianapolis and stop their backing of an existing club for a potential club. If the city does not get the bid, it could have repercussions for elected officials. When you look at social media, the people of Indianapolis are not happy about the announcement.
This is not the first time a team in the USL was in danger by the expansion by the MLS. San Diego Loyal played their final season in 2023 after the announcement by the MLS that they would expand to San Diego with the club San Diego FC. SD Loyal made the announcement just three months after San Diego FC was announced. The reason was due to not being able to find a stadium solution. As for San Diego FC, they will play their matches at the Snapdragon Stadium, which the Loyal could have used to play their matches. Instead of looking for a solution to integrate San Deigo Loyal, MLS had their club created which led to the destruction of a club in a rival league.
Miami had a soccer club before Inter Miami, Miami FC. Miami is a different story than San Diego. Unlike the Loyal, Miami FC attracts a very small audience. They averaged only 190 people a game a year before the arrival of Inter Miami, per Transfermarkt. It has gone up since Inter Miami’s inaugural season. Last season, the average attendance was 1,432 and this season it is 826 so far. The problem falls on the people of Miami though. Inter Miami increased their attendance by 35% to 17,061 last year from the prior season. It still begs the question of how much longer Miami FC will last when they are competing against a club with Leonel Messi for attendance.
Las Vegas Lights is another USL Championship club but are in a city being looked at by MLS also for expansion. Even worse, the current owner, José Bautista, is not part of the organization and is in talks with Don Garber to join the MLS, who would be the owners of Aston Villa. Phoenix is a different story. The USL team, Phoenix Rising, talked to MLS to join the league, which is a more positive solution. Tampa Bay Rowdies did the same thing when they were pursuing an MLS bid.
MLS does speak to the current existing clubs in the city. They did it with Louisville City, San Diego Loyal, Sacramento Republic, and others, but when that failed, they move in with their own clubs, i.e., San Diego FC and now potentially Indy MLS club. What MLS is doing is not helping the growth of the sport. They are aiming to monopolize the sport by destroying their competition, USL. This would not be a problem if USSF would create an open system or step in to put it to a stop. If MLS is the sole soccer league in the US with only 30-40 cities with a team, then you would isolate the hundreds of cities that have fans and players without a club to help accomplish their dream. Even in other sports leagues in the US we do not see a campaign like this. NFL did not actively work to end the XFL and the other football leagues. The NHL and the MLB have minor leagues all over the country. I do not prefer having minor leagues in soccer here in the US. It would be preferable that the MLS and USL work together to expand the sport and/or USSF implement policies that protect smaller leagues from bigger leagues.
USMNT
USMNT Kits Come in Different Styles and Colors
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)
US Soccer kit releases are something fans get excited about and lately have resulted in disappointment. US Soccer’s recent schedule for kits release during the cycle has seen them releasing another road and or third kits in Gold Cup years and home and away pairs in the even years.
US Soccer is expected to release the 2024 Copa America kits for the USMNT in the coming weeks headed into the Nations League Finals. Last Thursday evening Footy Headlines, who has had a good track record of leaking USMNT kits in the past, provided the below pictures of the home and away USMNT kits. These kits haven’t officially been announced by Nike or US Soccer, but the anticipated announcement is expected in the coming weeks headed into the Nations League Final.
Photo from Footheadlies.com – February 29, 2024
Fake Leaked USMNT Kits
The below USMNT kits were leaked over the last decade, but none of them came to fruition, it’s fun to look at what could have been for the USMNT.
2014 World Cup Kits
These leaked kits headed into the 2014 FIFA World Cup were where loved by many USMNT fans due to the sash and the use of the Centennial Crest, but unfortunately, these kits were fakes and never released.
Photo from SportsLogos.Net – September 13, 2013
2015 Alternative Kit & 2016 Copa America
Generally, US Soccer releases an alternate kit in the years that the Gold Cup is played. This leak kit was reported back in 2015 by NBCSports and then again by MLS Soccer when it was suggested it could be used during the Copa América Centenario.
Photo from NBCSports – April 2, 2015
2022 World Cup Kits
I would have much preferred for the USMNT to have worn these kits at the 2022 FIFA World Cup when they ended up, but alas it was another leaked kit that never was.
Photo from proscoccerwire.com – May 6, 2022
2024 Copa America Kit
This rumored kit for the USMNT was based on similar kits worn by the USMNT at the 1924 Olympics and the 1930 World Cup.
Photo from the18.com via Footieheadlines.com – September 14, 2023
History of US Soccer Crest and USMNT kits
Over ten years ago I began my research of USMNT soccer data in search of a single source site, which I quickly found didn’t exist. Through my research, I started to comply with old USMNT kits and crests from the past. As I acquired more and more kits worn by the USMNT and was able to start to fill in the gaps between them I decided to digitally recreate these kits and share them with the USMNT fans.
Here’s a look at what I was able to find while it seems like a lot I am sure there are many more kits I missed and if so I would love to know which ones so I could create and update what I have already.
History of US Soccer Crests
Here’s the history of the US Soccer crests. I had to recreate several of these crests based on old pictures I found throughout my research since there were no digital images available.
USMNT Kits – 1916-1973
These were the first kits worn by the USMNT which weren’t sponsored. There are variations of these kits worn by the USMNT which comprised of variations of crests and styles, likely due to available funds during this time. My favorite kits in the group are the ones with the sashes from the 1928 and 1936 Olympics and the 1959 Pan American Games.
USMNT Kits – 1974-1983
The group of kits for the USMNT were the first that were sponsored by Adidas. There were a lot of similar styles of kits during this time which really lacked any creativity. My favorite kits in the group are the ones from the middle to late 1970s, there is something about their simplicity and clean look.
USMNT Kits – 1984-1994
Adidas’s 20-year run of creating kits for US Soccer ended in 1994, with few quality kits made during those couple of decades, which is ironic considering how nice Adidas’s kits are today. My favorite kits in the group are the 1985/1986 blue hoop kit and the 1988 Blue Olympic kit.
USMNT Kits – 1995-2011
In 1995 Nike took over the creation of the US Soccer kits and started by making three similar kits for the 1995 Copa America and 1996 third kit for the US Cup. Nike did release three Special Edition kits in 2003, 2004, and 2006, which were only worn for one match each. My favorite kits in the group all had a sash on them, which were both the 2010 World Cup kits and the red 2011 Gold Cup kit.
USMNT Kits – 2012-Current
Most USMNT fans would agree that recent kits released by Nike haven’t held the standard seen in the 2010s, where the hoops/stripes that some many fans loved for the 2012 Waldo kits were incorporated. My unsung kits of this group are the 2018 home kit, which would have been worn at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and the 2017 Gold Cup kit.
USMNT Kits going forward
Nike and US Soccer signed what was considered a historical long-term sponsor agreement, in November 2021, that went into effect in Janaury 2023 that will run for at least a decade which will cover the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics and possibly a 2027 or 2031 Women’s World Cup hosted in the United States, so for fans who has hoped for a different kit creator they will have to wait a while.
Once the 2024 Copa America kits are released US Soccer will likely only release one more kit for the 2025 Gold Cup for the USMNT before releasing the 2026 World Cup kits. One idea that I’ve had for a long time was for US Soccer to release Special Edition Kits with styles from the past, with the limited release of those kits, coupled with playing matches in locations and venues throughout the United States to build the fan base and excitement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
In conclusion, I am somewhat optimistic that US Soccer and Nike will create some variation of the 2012 Waldo kit & 1994 Stats and Denim kit to be worn as the hosts of the 2026 World Cup.
USMNT
2024: A Pivotal Year for the USMNT
Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X/Formally Twitter)
Photo From: USA Today-John Locher, AP – 18, June 2023 – 2023 Concacaf Nations League
As the fog hovered over Estadio Parque Artigas Stadium in Paysandú, Uruguay in the 58th minute Eric Wynalda received the ball on the right wing with Joe-Max Moore making a run forward and in front of Wynalda who delivered a pass to Moore who then went down preventing the ball from being taken away and sending it back to Wynalda who slides forward and scores the third goal of the match and his third goal of the tournament, making it 3-0 USA over tenth-ranked Argentinians and all but sealing the win and the top spot in Group C at the 1995 Copa America. The win for this USMNT consisted of 17 players from the 1994 World Cup team who reached their pinnacle with this group of players finishing fourth at this Copa America.
Over the previous three decades, the USMNT has had some of the biggest wins in the team’s history. During the 1999 Confederations Cup, which was played in Mexico the USMNT played a hard-fought match against the fifth-ranked Germans defeating them 2-0 in the final group stage match and finishing third overall in the tournament. The USMNT would also have an even bigger result against second-ranked Spain in the semi-finals of the 2009 Confederations Cup when they ended Spain’s 35-game unbeaten streak in a 2-0 victory that would send them to the final against Brazil.
2024 is the midway point of the 2026 FIFA World Cup cycle, and the next two windows for the USMNT who as a team and federation need to start ascending to their apex with this group to ensure that they have an amazing performance at the 2026 World Cup.
The USMNT has already played their first match, a 1-0 defeat to Slovenia, but need to quickly focus on the March window 2024 CONCACAF Nations League Finals where they will play Jamaica in the semi-final round and a win would put the USMNT in their third straight Nations League Final where they would have a chance to play either Mexico or Panama and win their third straight Concacaf Nations League trophy.
Some 90 days later the USMNT will be kicking off only their fifth appearance at the Copa America Tournament, with the stakes for this group at an all-time high and where success is demanded from the players, coaches, fans, and the federation. Will this current group of USMNT players and coaches be able to progress to the next level against the elite teams of CONMEBOL? It’s worth noting that the USMNT has finished fourth twice at Copa America in 1995 and 2016, however, the USMNT finished 32nd at the 1998 World Cup and failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
The U-23 USMNT will also be playing the Olympics for the first time since 2008, which provides a great opportunity for those U-23 players to get noticed on a big stage. There are many eligible players who if released by their clubs will have a great opportunity to impress while helping the U-23 USMNT make a deep run at the 2024 Olympics in France.
As it becomes increasingly harder for the USMNT to schedule non-Concacaf opponents the US Soccer Federation will need to get creative in who and where they schedule these Friendly matches. The June window offers up the best opportunities for the USMNT to schedule matches against other CONMEBOL teams, preferably in Groups A and B which feature Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
Edgar Moreno on X, formally Twitter, reported that the USMNT and Colombia have scheduled a Friendly headed into Copa America. It was also reported on Goal.com that Colombia will be scheduling a total of four matches leading into the tournament, two of which will be taking place in Europe. While there are challenges with timing and logistics around scheduling Friendlies with UEFA teams, USSF really needs to do everything possible to secure a similar type of schedule headed into Copa America but, rarely schedules USMNT Friendlies outside of the FIFA International window, which Colombia would need to do to make that schedule work.
It has been recently rumored that the USMNT might close to scheduling a Friendly with Colombia headed into Copa America. The September and October windows have few quality opponents available, at the time of the article it appears that the September window could be an opportunity to play schedule matches with teams from the CAF Confederation, but those matches would likely need to be played at neutral sites in Europe.
2024 USMNT Window
| March | June Window | Copa America | September | October | November |
| CNL Finals March 18-26 | Friendlies June 3-11 | June 20-July 14 | Friendlies Sept. 2-10 | Friendlies Oct. 7-15 | CNL quarterfinals Nov. 11-19 |
Below are eight years since the 1994 cycle that at the time were considered big years for the USMNT as they were playing in FIFA tournaments against teams from other confederations. Below is a look at how they fared.
1992
6 Wins, 4 Draws, 11 Losses, GF-21, GA-27
Third Place at the King Fahd Cup renamed Confederations Cup in 1997 edition.
First at U.S. Cup (Participating teams –Ireland, Italy & Portugal)
Top Goal Scorers
5-Eric Wynalda
3-Hugo Perez
3-Marcelo Balboa
2-Bruce Murray
2-John Harkes
Goalkeeper Stats
5 Wins – Tony Meola
4 Shutouts – Tony Meola
Photo From: Soccer International, Volume 3, Issue 12, December 1992
1993
10 Wins, 11 Draws, 13 Losses, GF-45, GA-44
Twelfth place at Copa America
Second Place at Gold Cup
Third Place at U.S. Cup (Participating teams – Brazil, England & Germany)
34 matches played 1st All-Time
11 Draws tied for 1st All-Time with 1994
13 Loses 1st All-Time
44 Goals Conceded 1st All-Time
Top Goal Scorers
8-Joe-Max Moore
7-Dominic Kinnear
4-Alexi Lalas
4-Thomas Dooley
Goalkeeper Stats
Photo From: El Grafico Number 3847, June 16, 1993
7 Wins – Tony Meola
8 Shutouts – Tony Meola
1995
5 Wins, 3 Draws, 6 Losses, GF-20, GA-18
Fourth Place at Copa America
First at U.S. Cup (Participating teams – Colombia, Mexico & Nigeria)
Top Goal Scorers
3-Eric Wynalda
2-Joe-Max Moore
2-Alexi Lalas
2-John Harkes
Goalkeeper Stats
3 Wins – Kasey Keller
2 Shutouts – Brad Friedel & Kasey Keller
Photo From: DIEGO GIUDICE Associated Press file, July 14, 1995
1999
7 Wins, 2 Draws, 4 Losses, GF-19, GA-11
Third Place at Confederations Cup
Second Place at U.S. Cup (Participating teams – Bolivia, Guatemala & Mexico)
Top Goal Scorers
3-Joe-Max Moore
3-Brian McBride
2-Ben Olsen
2-Jovan Kirovski
2-Frankie Hedjuk
Goalkeeper Stats
2 Wins – Brad Friedel & Kasey Keller
2 Shutouts – Brad Friedel & Tony Meola
Photo From: FIFA Report- 1999 Mexico, July 30, 1999
2003
10 Wins, 2 Draws, 4 Losses, GF-28, GA-10
Seventh Place at Confederations Cup
Third place at Gold Cup
Top Goal Scorers
7-Landon Donovan
4-Carlos Bocanegra
3-Brian McBride
3-Chris Klein
Goalkeeper Stats
6 Wins – Kasey Keller
5 Shutouts – Kasey Keller
Photo From: FIFA Confederations Cup, June 23, 2003
2007
12 Wins, 1 Draws, 5 Losses, GF-31, GA-19
Twelfth Place at Copa America
First Place at Gold Cup
Top Goal Scorers
9-Landon Donovan
3-Clint Dempsey
3- DaMarcus Beasley
2-Eddie Johnson
2-Benny Feilhaber
2-Carlos Bocanegra
Goalkeeper Stats
8 Wins – Tim Howard
4 Shutouts – Tim Howard
Photo From: Guillermo Legaria – FIFA Copa America, June 28, 2007
2009
13 Wins. 3 Draws, 8 Losses, GF-43, GA-36
Second Place at Confederations Cup
Second Place at Gold Cup
Top Goal Scorers
6-Jozy Altidore
5-Landon Donovan
4-Clint Dempsey
4-Michael Bradley
3- Sacha Kljestan
3- Charlie Davies
Goalkeeper Stats
7 Wins – Tim Howard
4 Shutouts – Tim Howard
Photo From: Jamie McDonald/Getty Images
2016
12 Wins, 1 Draw, 6 Losses, GF-37, GA-20
Fourth Place at Copa America
Top Goal Scorers
6-Jozy Altidore
4-Bobby Wood
4-Clint Dempsey
3-Christian Pulisic
3-Gyasi Zardes
Goalkeeper Stats
8 Wins – Brad Guzan
6 Shutouts – Brad Guzan
Photo From: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Expectations for the in 2024 USMNT
The USMNT is expected to once again advance to the Nations League Final and with their full fit A Squad should be able to bring home their third Nations League trophy, but the 2024 Copa America tournament is very possible the most important non-World Cup the USMNT has even competed it. How success and failure will be determined by the USSF and fans will be interesting to follow. Gregg Berhalter has to prove that he can put together a roster, a formation that allows for simple and effective tactics that will allow the USMNT to not only compete against some top-tier nations but beat them. Success for me isn’t just advancing to the semi-finals of Copa America The USMNT needs to perform at the next level against the top-tier nations, something that I’ve only seen a handful of times in my nearly 35 years as a USMNT fan.
Is the MLS Specifically Targeting Expansion to USL Cities?
USMNT Kits Come in Different Styles and Colors
2024: A Pivotal Year for the USMNT
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