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Moneyball: An Explanation for 2019

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There were several persistent issues fans and pundits had with Gregg Berhalter and the USMNT in 2019, beyond results. 

Four of the biggest were:

  1.  The continued presence on rosters of mid-20s players, from MLS, that were given minutes no matter how they performed for the USMNT or in MLS.  
  2. The almost Puritanical need to “Play Out of the Back”, no matter the game state or opposition defense.
  3. A passive mid-block defense that allowed opponents easy entry into our third of the field.  
  4.  Substitutions that made no sense in competitive games.

There are two theories among fans and analysts who try and analyze the situation, beyond, “Gregg is an idiot who was only hired because he is brothers with the CEO to be.”  Whether there is any truth to that statement is counteracted by the idea that nobody could be that big an idiot. Some will disagree of course.

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Both theories start from the idea that Gregg, from the day he was hired, had a set system that he wanted to play.  That he would find players that fit the system, rather than devise a system that fit the players he had.  

The first theory is that Gregg wanted to only rely on data and “player profiles” based on data collected by services like Opta.  This tries to explain the #1 complaint by pointing out that most of our talent in Europe is very young, few have first team minutes in large quantities, so there is no Opta data.  That since Gregg was only selecting players he could get data on, they mostly were mid-twenties players in MLS who had mountains of data available. Players with good amounts of data could be added, like Pulisic, Brooks, Ream.  But players like Richie Ledezma could not.

This theory kind of hits the snag at the exclusion of plenty of players with lots of first team minutes like Antonee Robinson, Duane Holmes, Julian Green, Fabian Johnson, etc.  It also doesn’t address #2, 3, 4 in any way other than, Gregg is “naïve”.

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My theory, based on things discussed by media members with insider access, is that 2019 was an experiment in a “Moneyball” approach.  This is a popular sporting concept in the USA and increasingly around the world. It is looking for incremental competitive advantages using statistical analysis to offset competitive disadvantages in talent disparity.  The famous example is how the Oakland A’s used the statistical work of Bill James to build a team on par with the Yankees and Red Sox on 1/50th the budget.

The idea Gregg, and Earnie Stewart, had and possibly still have, is that the MLS season is very different from the European and South American seasons.  The long winter break allows for a long national team training camp in January (Camp Cupcake). Brazil, Germany, France, etc. do not have this opportunity for a long, like a club pre-season, camp.  That the extra time could be used to teach a complicated, Pep Guardiola-esque, positional offense that would allow the USMNT, with less talent, to compete with the previous mentioned teams; who can’t run sophisticated offenses because the short windows national teams have together.  

Data was used to pick the original January pool.  They were drilled in the new system. The idea was that these players would then be able to carry that knowledge forward and help train additional players.  New players would be brought in a few at a time until they got up to speed then more could be integrated. This is why the rosters throughout the year featured so many players from January camp (Cupcakers).  This is why only the top players in Europe were initially brought in in small numbers. In June, longer camps were held and more non-MLS players were brought in. But when the Gold Cup roster was announced, in the end, it contained 14 Cupcakers out of 23 players.  This roughly 2/3rds ratio of Cupcakers to non-Cupcakers was very consistent throughout 2019.

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There is no way to teach a possession based positional read and react offense (The System) without playing it.  This is why all year, until the final Canada game, the USA played out of the back almost exclusively. Even in the Friendly against Mexico, with Mexico probably figuring out this entire plan and that the USA was not going to go over the top, against 7 and 8 men presses, they played in to the pressure.  

But how does this explain why the USMNT played a passive mid-block defense that made teams like Curacao and Canada look like Spain?  The defense was deployed by Gregg not to win games or even to win the ball. It was designed to create goal kicks for the USA. The more goal kicks, the more opportunities to play out from the back and practice The System.  Since the most limited thing a national team has is minutes of game time, every minute was maximized as a training exercise.

Down by a goal in the Gold Cup Final, Gregg substituted on Roldan for Morris, Zardes for Altidore, and Lovitz for Ream.  The last one is really perplexing because Lovitz is not only not a goal threat, but is not even good. This one is discussed a lot because it is so questionable.  But all three are Cupcakers subbing in for non-Cupcakers. Gregg must have felt a better execution of The System would lead to a goal or viewed the Gold Cup Final as another training exercise like all the previous games.

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Following the second Mexico loss and the loss in Canada, pressure mounted.  Against Canada in Orlando, some things changed. The roster was still heavily infested with Cupcakers, but only 4 ended up playing.  The USMNT played goal kicks short, but never passed back to the goal keeper like previously. If another short pass was not on, the ball was hit long to a forward.  Contrast that with the Mexico friendly where passing back was used to keep possession at all costs; frequently ending up at the feet of a center back on the goal line or in Steffan’s 6 yard box.   The USMNT did not sit in a passive mid-block, but instead used a form of high press that led to turnovers and transition goals. The subs were mostly defense for offense which made sense with a multi-goal lead.

I believe several flaws in the “moneyball” approach became apparent:

  1. The Cupcakers that were relied upon were simply not good enough
  2. The reliance on a core Group, doesn’t allow for new or in form players to be integrated quickly or at all.
  3. Most of the young talent breaking through last year and in the upcoming years, will be in Europe and will not be able to attend Camp Cupcake.
  4. The team did not look comfortable executing The System at any point and that is either because Gregg could not teach it, the players could not execute it, or even with the large amount of Cupcakers the European players couldn’t learn it, or the European players could execute it but the MLS players couldn’t keep up.

We don’t know if it has been abandoned and we don’t know if Gregg thinks it was a failure at all.   We probably will not know until March at the earliest, maybe not until the CONCACAF National League Final or even World Cup Qualifying in August.

USMNT

2026 USMNT Roster Predictions

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

The official USMNT roster will be released Tuesday, May 26th in New York City, and there’s already plenty of debate among media, fans, and analysts about who should make the squad and what Mauricio Pochettino is likely to do.

Here’s a breakdown of each position, including what I think Pochettino will do and what I would do. What are your thoughts, and which players do you think will miss out?

Goalkeepers

It’s clear that Matt Freese and Matt Turner have done enough to establish themselves as the top two goalkeeping options, but the third goalkeeper spot remains up for debate.

Many fans want to see a younger goalkeeper, such as Chris Brady or Diego Kochen, included with the hope they can eventually become the USMNT’s long-term No. 1 in this cycle or the next. Others would prefer a more experienced option with stronger club resumes, like Roman Celentano, Patrick Schulte, or Zack Steffen.

Here’s what I think Pochettino will do, and what I would do.

Pochettino’s PickUSKeeper Picks
Chris BradyChris Brady
Matt FreeseMatt Freese
Matt TurnerMatt Turner

Defenders

The USMNT defense, particularly at center back, has looked unsettled and inconsistent, raising real questions about what the back line will ultimately look like. There’s still uncertainty around whether the team will defend in a two- or three-center-back system, and that decision will shape everything else.

Continuity in defense is essential for a team’s success, but right now that consistency hasn’t been established. Much of that will need to be developed quickly through the upcoming friendlies and into the group stage, though there’s a real concern that it may be a case of too little, too late for the group to fully gel.

There also aren’t many clear-cut surprises expected in this area of the roster. The main competition appears to be between Auston Trusty and Joe Scally for a similar role, while questions remain about where Tim Weah is best utilized defensively or higher up the field. On top of that, there’s the added uncertainty of whether Noahkai Banks will commit to a roster spot with the USMNT.

Here’s what I think Pochettino will do, and what I would do.

Pochettino’s PickUSKeeper Picks
Max ArfstenNoahkai Banks
Sergiño DestSergiño Dest
Alex FreemanAlex Freeman
Mark McKenzieMark McKenzie
Tim ReamTim Ream
Chris RichardsChris Richards
Antonee RobinsonAntonee Robinson
Auston TrustyJoe Scally
Tim WeahAuston Trusty

Central Midfielders

Many still consider central midfield one of the USMNT’s stronger areas, but recent injuries have introduced some uncertainty heading into the 2026 World Cup. Johnny Cardoso’s injury, who has been ruled out of the tournament, along with Tanner Tessmann’s whose recent muscle issues has missed several matches for Lyon, has raised legitimate questions about depth in the position.

Those setbacks put added focus on who will partner with Tyler Adams in what is likely to be a double pivot, an area that will be crucial in protecting and connecting play in front of the back line.

Several candidates have emerged in recent discussions. Aidan Morris is frequently mentioned, having been consistently reliable in the EFL Championship with Middlesbrough, who narrowly missed promotion to the Premier League. Others in the mix include Yunus Musah and Gianluca Busio, both of whom have had limited or inconsistent involvement under the Pochettino era so far, leaving their roles still somewhat undefined.

Here’s what I think Pochettino will do, and what I would do.

Pochettino’s PickUSKeeper Picks
Tyler AdamsTyler Adams
Sebastian BerhalterWeston McKennie
Weston McKennieAidan Morris
Aidan MorrisYunus Musah
Cristian RoldanTanner Tessmann
Tanner Tessmann

Attacking Midfielder / Wingers

The biggest question in this group is whether Gio Reyna will be part of the USMNT’s 2026 World Cup roster. Across social media and among USMNT analysts, opinions are sharply divided, with the outlook on Reyna currently feeling close to 50/50.

Beyond that uncertainty, there are clear internal battles for attacking midfield and wide roles. One of the most notable competitions appears to be between Alejandro Zendejas and Diego Luna, with it likely that only one of them will ultimately secure a roster spot. 

Jack McGlynn is another player who could fit into this role or slide into a central midfield position. He remains firmly on the radar and could work his way onto the roster if another player drops out or a spot opens up.

There is also a growing push from some supporters for the inclusion of younger attacking talent. Depending on how the roster shapes out, this could open the door for players like Mathis Albert, Zavier Gozo, or Julian Hall to break into the squad and fill one of those remaining attacking positions.

Here’s what I think Pochettino will do, and what I would do.

Pochettino’s PickUSKeeper Picks
Brendan AaronsonBrendan Aaronson
Diego LunaZavier Gozo
Christian PulisicChristian Pulisic
Giovanni ReynaGiovanni Reyna
Malik TillmanMalik Tillman
Tim Weah

Strikers

This may be the only position where a large majority of the USMNT community agrees on at least two of the three striker options, if not all three. Some believe the roster should include a fourth striker, but I’m not in that camp.

After Patrick Agyemang’s injury, the debate over the third striker spot alongside Haji Wright largely disappeared. Brian White continues to make a strong case in MLS, approaching double-digit goal contributions on the season. Beyond those names, however, there don’t appear to be many standout alternatives, with Josh Sargent and Damion Downs currently sitting further down the depth chart.

Here’s what I think Pochettino will do, and what I would do.

Pochettino’s PickUSKeeper Picks
Folarin BalogunFolarin Balogun
Ricardo PepiRicardo Pepi
Haji WrightHaji Wright

USMNT Roster Decisions Impacts

The official USMNT roster will be unveiled Tuesday, May 26th in New York City, and the debate is already heating up among fans, media, and analysts over who deserves a spot and what Mauricio Pochettino’s final decisions will look like.

Below is a position-by-position breakdown of what I believe Pochettino is likely to do, along with the choices I would make if I were building the squad. Which players do you think will make the cut, and who could be left out?

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Side by Side: The Looking at USMNT Center Back Pairings – Past & Present

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If the March 2026 window revealed anything about the United States men’s national soccer team, it’s that their center-back group, whether in a two- or three-man setup, lacks cohesion heading into the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The partnership, continuity, and communication between center backs are critical to organizing the entire defense, and right now, that foundation doesn’t look fully settled.

That realization prompted a look back over the past 40 years, examining the different center-back pairings, how they developed chemistry, and the impact those partnerships had on the USMNT at the highest level.

The Steadfast Anchor of the 1990 USMNT Defense

Mike Windischmann, captain of the 1990 USMNT World Cup team, was a cornerstone of the squad throughout the 1990 cycle. For much of that period, he was paired at center-back with Steve Trittschuh, though the two didn’t start together at the World Cup itself. Windischmann also formed defensive partnerships with John Doyle, Marcelo Balboa, and Paul Caligiuri at various points. At the World Cup, he teamed up with Jimmy Banks in two of the three matches, providing leadership and stability at the heart of the U.S. backline.

Trailblazers Building a Solid Back Line for the Future

Much like the 1990 cycle, Marcelo Balboa was a constant presence on the USMNT back line, whether playing as a sweeper under Bora Milutinović or in a back three with six midfielders in front of him under Steve Sampson. He formed key partnerships with emerging talents like Alexi Lalas, who joined the team in 1992, and dual-national Thomas Dooley. This defensive core enjoyed significant successes throughout the 1994 and 1998 cycles, including advancing out of the group stage at the 1994 World Cup, defeating Argentina at the 1995 Copa América, and taking Brazil to the brink in a hard-fought semifinal.

A Defensive Anchor in U.S. Soccer History

Widely regarded as one of the top center-backs in U.S. men’s national team history, Eddie Pope featured in three consecutive FIFA World Cups (1998, 2002, and 2006), starting in all three for the USMNT. At the 2002 tournament, he anchored a formidable back line alongside Tony Sanneh and Jeff Agoos, forming a disciplined and resilient defensive unit for the United States men’s national soccer team. That group played a key role in one of the program’s deepest modern World Cup runs, but does it stand as the best defensive unit the USMNT has ever produced?

A Peak Partnership Interrupted

For me, one of the strongest center-back pairings in United States men’s national soccer team history emerged during the 2010 cycle, anchored by Carlos Bocanegra and Oguchi Onyewu. The duo arguably reached their peak at the 2009 Confederations Cup, forming a physically dominant and well-organized backbone.

Unfortunately, Onyewu’s injury leading into the 2010 World Cup limited his effectiveness, preventing the partnership from carrying that same level into the tournament. In his absence, Jay DeMerit stepped in seamlessly, providing valuable depth and steady performances, highlighting the overall strength of the USMNT’s center-back pool during that period.

From Breakthrough to Breakdown

The center-back pairing of Omar Gonzalez and Matt Besler came together late in the 2014 cycle but quickly developed into a reliable and cohesive duo at the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Their understanding and physical presence helped stabilize the back line on the world stage.

That tournament also introduced a rising presence in John Brooks, who memorably scored the game-winning goal against Ghana after Besler picked up a knock, announcing himself in a major moment.

As the cycle turned toward 2018, Brooks continued to establish himself, often partnering with Geoff Cameron, while Gonzalez and Besler remained in the mix depending on form and fitness. However, as the 2018 cycle progressed, inconsistency and a lack of cohesion among the center-backs became an issue, one of several factors that ultimately contributed to the United States men’s national soccer team failing to qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Emerging Stability Ahead of the 2022 World Cup

Heading into the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the United States men’s national soccer team faced real uncertainty at center back, with no clear anchor or leader emerging. That quickly changed, as Tim Ream stepped in and solidified himself as the steadying presence of the back line.

A major turning point came when Miles Robinson suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in the summer leading up to the tournament—a significant blow given his form and importance to the group. His absence opened the door for Walker Zimmerman, who had already been in contention, to establish a strong partnership alongside Ream.

Meanwhile, Aaron Long, returning from his own Achilles injury in 2021, earned a place on the roster, and Cameron Carter-Vickers also featured, with both players contributing minutes during the tournament. Together, this group brought stability to a position that had looked unsettled just months earlier.

2026 at Center Back Uncertainty and Opportunity

There are more questions than answers surrounding the United States men’s national soccer team center-back picture heading into the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Chris Richards appears to be a near lock, while Tim Ream, though still a trusted presence, has shown signs of decline compared to four years ago, yet could still find his way onto the roster based on experience and leadership.

A key variable will be how Mauricio Pochettino sets up tactically, particularly whether he opts for a two or three center-back system. In a back three, players like Joe Scally and Alex Freeman could slide into right center-back roles given their versatility, while Mark McKenzie and Auston Trusty provide options on the left. Miles Robinson also remains firmly in the mix as competition for a roster spot.

Perhaps the biggest unknown is Noahkai Banks. The 19-year-old dual national, currently playing in the Bundesliga, opted out of a recent USMNT camp while weighing his international future between the United States and Germany. If he ultimately commits, his emergence could significantly impact the depth and ceiling of the USMNT’s center-back pool heading into 2026.

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Voices of USMNT on the World Stage

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Thomas Deschaine (@uskeeper on X and us_keeper on Instagram)

Over the decades, the United States Men’s National Soccer Team has been accompanied by a wide range of voices behind the microphone, delivering some of the most memorable calls in World Cup history.

Along the way, several standout broadcast duos have helped shape the viewing experience and left a lasting mark on the USMNT landscape.

Here’s a look back at the voices that have defined US World Cup broadcasts since 1990.

1990 FIFA World Cup – Italy 

Network: ESPN

Play-by-play: Bob Ley

Color: Paul Gardner

Coverage of the USMNT at the 1990 World Cup was limited, particularly in the early rounds, but Bob Ley emerged as one of the defining voices of soccer on U.S. television during that era. His presence helped introduce a new generation of American fans to the international game, providing context and credibility at a time when the global stage still felt unfamiliar to much of the US audience.

1994 FIFA World Cup – United States of America

1998 FIFA World Cup – France

2002 FIFA World Cup – Japan / South Korea

Networks: ABC / ESPN

Play-by-play: JP Dellacamera

Color: Ty Keough

This play-by-play and color commentary duo called three World Cups for the USMNT, becoming the defining voice of the team during my peak viewing years. Ty Keough the former USMNT midfielder from the late 1970s and early 1980s.

JP Dellacamera stands out as one of, if not the, best play-by-play announcers and remains one of my favorites. While others on this list delivered memorable moments, they didn’t quite match that same level of longevity.

2006 FIFA World Cup – Germany 

Networks: ABC / ESPN

Play-by-play: Dave O’Brien

Color: Marcelo Balboa

New England native Dave O’Brien, widely known today for calling major sports across his career, had just one World Cup as the primary play-by-play voice for the USMNT. His run calling USMNT matches, primarily in the mid-2000s on ESPN, was relatively brief but still memorable. While he isn’t as closely associated with the USMNT as some other broadcasters, he was behind the mic for several standout moments during that era.

2010 FIFA World Cup – South Korea

Network: ESPN

Play-by-play: Ian Darke

Color: John Harkes

Ian Darke brought a global voice to American audiences as the lead play-by-play announcer for the USMNT during the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Already well known around the world, he made the tournament easy to connect with for U.S. fans and delivered one of the most iconic calls in American soccer history.

Darke’s iconic call of the USMNT game winning goal by Landon Donovan in must win final group stage match against Algeria to advance to the knockout stage of the 2010 World Cup gives me chills every time I see it.

2014 FIFA World Cup – Brazil 

Networks: ESPN / ABC

Play-by-play: Ian Darke

Color: Taylor Twellman

This duo might be my favorite to date. Ian Darke brought a clear, global voice to USMNT viewers during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, making the tournament easy to follow for US fans while elevating the biggest moments with calm, sharp, and memorable calls.

Alongside him, Taylor Twellman emerged as one of the most recognizable and influential voices of the modern era, primarily as a lead analyst on ESPN. His passionate, unfiltered style stood out, most notably with his unforgettable “What are we doing?!” reaction following the USMNT’s failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, a moment that’s still talked about today.

2022 FIFA World Cup – Qatar

Network: FOX Sports

Play-by-play: John Strong

Color: Stu Holden

If the USMNT had qualified for the 2018 World Cup, this broadcast team would have called their matches, marking what would have been a third straight World Cup cycle with the same primary commentary crew. It’s also likely he’ll be paired again with Stu Holden for USMNT matches at the 2026 World Cup.

John Strong has served as a lead play-by-play voice for U.S. soccer on FOX Sports since 2018, bringing a modern, high-energy style to the booth. Since taking on major international assignments, he’s become one of the defining voices for USMNT audiences in top competitions, known for his clear, sharp calls and a big-game tone that fits the moment.

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